Dear All,
The ridge is moving away. The wind changed directions yesterday. Look at the NWS map. See something different. Look closely. Do you see any orange? Nope. I realize we have grown so used to seeing it we thought it was normal. No more heat advisory. Tomorrow will be hot, but changes are coming. They are coming. Be patient.
THE HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 7 PM. GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW...AND WITH RISING DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE TO REISSUE THE ADVISORY. AND FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A LONG TIME...NO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET TODAY!
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
Extreme Wildfire Danger: Texas Wildfires
Tireman4 you are a great cheerleader and keeping our hopes up! WE JUST NEED RAIN.tireman4 wrote:Dear All,
The ridge is moving away. The wind changed directions yesterday. Look at the NWS map. See something different. Look closely. Do you see any orange? Nope. I realize we have grown so used to seeing it we thought it was normal. No more heat advisory. Tomorrow will be hot, but changes are coming. They are coming. Be patient.
THE HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 7 PM. GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW...AND WITH RISING DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE TO REISSUE THE ADVISORY. AND FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A LONG TIME...NO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET TODAY!
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
The pattern is a changin ..... I do believe the skies are gonna open up for us very soon you'll see.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
HPC morning update suggest we need to pay a bit closer attention to the weekend and the NW Gulf...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEARS DESTINED TO IMPACT AREAS
OF THE WESTERN AND CNTRL GULF OF MX DEPENDING ON THE MODEL CHOICE.
THE 00Z CMC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE CARRYING A POTENT H5 VORT MAX
INTO GALVESTON BAY BY 03/1200Z. SIMILARLY...THE 00Z UKMET ALSO
SHOWS A MODESTLY STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING COASTAL LA BY SUN
MORNING. AS THESE SOLNS WERE RATHER EXTREME WITH SPREAD THAT WAS
ON THE HIGHER END...THESE MODELS WERE REMOVED AS OUTLIERS. FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF WAS
UTILIZED BEFORE THE 00Z GFS BECAME A BIT MORE SUSPICIOUS. BY
SUN...THE 00Z GFS INDICATES A STRONG SFC CYCLONE SHOULD IMPACT THE
FL PANHANDLE WITH VERY FEW 12Z GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORTING A LOCATION
THAT FAR TO THE EAST. IT ALSO DID NOT AGREE WELL WITH ITS
PRECEDING THREE RUNS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH A POTENT NE PAC SYSTEM ON MON WITH PRESSURES FCST TO BE MUCH
TOO DEEP. SO A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GLOBAL MEANS WAS
UTILIZED FOR DAYS 4/5. THEREAFTER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE GULF OF MX DISTURBANCE LEAD TO MORE
OF AN ENS APPROACH TO CONCLUDE THE PERIOD OF INTEREST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE FAVORED GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENS MEMBERS RESIDE IN THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN.
BUT...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS UTILIZED GIVEN THE FCST
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE.
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEARS DESTINED TO IMPACT AREAS
OF THE WESTERN AND CNTRL GULF OF MX DEPENDING ON THE MODEL CHOICE.
THE 00Z CMC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE CARRYING A POTENT H5 VORT MAX
INTO GALVESTON BAY BY 03/1200Z. SIMILARLY...THE 00Z UKMET ALSO
SHOWS A MODESTLY STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING COASTAL LA BY SUN
MORNING. AS THESE SOLNS WERE RATHER EXTREME WITH SPREAD THAT WAS
ON THE HIGHER END...THESE MODELS WERE REMOVED AS OUTLIERS. FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF WAS
UTILIZED BEFORE THE 00Z GFS BECAME A BIT MORE SUSPICIOUS. BY
SUN...THE 00Z GFS INDICATES A STRONG SFC CYCLONE SHOULD IMPACT THE
FL PANHANDLE WITH VERY FEW 12Z GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORTING A LOCATION
THAT FAR TO THE EAST. IT ALSO DID NOT AGREE WELL WITH ITS
PRECEDING THREE RUNS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH A POTENT NE PAC SYSTEM ON MON WITH PRESSURES FCST TO BE MUCH
TOO DEEP. SO A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GLOBAL MEANS WAS
UTILIZED FOR DAYS 4/5. THEREAFTER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE GULF OF MX DISTURBANCE LEAD TO MORE
OF AN ENS APPROACH TO CONCLUDE THE PERIOD OF INTEREST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE FAVORED GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENS MEMBERS RESIDE IN THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN.
BUT...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS UTILIZED GIVEN THE FCST
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Will start out with the ongoing wildfire threat across the area as it appears to have reached a critical point again. Several large fires developed yesterday.
Addicks Fire: 150-450 acre fire burned through heavy brush and grass in Addicks Reservoir west of Eldridge Parkway to the top of the dam. Cy-Fair, Katy, and Houston fire departments responded along with 2 TFS dozers and a DPS helicopter. Fire was mostly brought under control very early this morning.
Beasley Fire: 50-75 acre fire developed along US 59 near Beasley. Rosenberg and Beasley fire departments responded and were able to bring the fire under control.
Huntsville: 175 acre fire burned north of Huntsville near the I-45 rest stop. Numerous fire departments responded along with TFS helicopters providing water drops. Fire was near 100% contained last evening.
Possum Kingdom Fire: Massive wildfire developed yesterday morning in Palo Pinto County west of Fort Worth spreading rapidly to 7,500 acres. 25-30 homes/condos were burned yesterday evening. 200 firefighters from numerous fire departments and 6 TFS dozer crews are working this fire. Numerous air support including C-130 air tankers and TFS helicopters are providing air support. Fire is burning out of control in heavy grass and cedar trees and jumped several fire lines yesterday. An additional 175 homes are threatened. This is the same location that had large fires in April which destroyed 125 homes.
Fire Weather: Little change today compared to the past few days which will result in another elevated fire weather day. Appears stronger winds on Tuesday help fan small fires rapidly into large out of control fires. Expect afternoon RH to fall between 15-35% across the area this afternoon with variable winds of 5-10 mph prior to the seabreeze moving inland, then SE to S winds at 10-15mph and gusty late this afternoon. After temperatures in the upper 90’s to low 100’s. Vegetation is extremely dry and will result in rapid fire growth.
Thursday:
Deep moisture now over the central Gulf of Mexico will begin to move inland along the TX coast with increasing chances of rainfall. Should start to see scattered showers/thunderstorms offshore Thursday morning spreading inland with the seabreeze. Best rain chances will be along and south of I-10.
Weekend:
Now for the fun part! Uncertainty abounds with this system still this morning!
All models still develop some kind of tropical system in the NW/W/N Gulf this weekend and linger it around for a few to several days. Still do not think any one of the models has a better solution than the other. CMC dump the system altogether yesterday and now brings a hurricane to the upper TX coast. ECMWF develops a low off of KBRO and drifts it ENE and then SW and then around the middle of next week sends it back NW as a hurricane into the upper TX/SW LA coast. GFS develops a system off of S LA and moves it eastward toward NW FL. NAM continues to be aggressive in the short term and brings a strong TS toward Galveston Bay and then moves it slightly inland only to send it back offshore. Will not follow any of the guidance solutions, even though the ECMWF and NAM do have support from the GFS ensembles.
Will instead go with the general idea of a broad surface low forming somewhere in the central or NW Gulf late Friday and moving very slowly NW toward the middle/upper TX coast. System will likely slow/stall/meander near or offshore through much of the weekend before either moving WSW toward the lower/middle coast or turning NE toward the upper coast/SW LA. Would give slightly more credit to the WSW motion, but it may not be enough to get it inland as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF in which the system is left over the Gulf into the middle of next week getting stronger and stronger. System looks very large (broad) over the weekend and will likely be fairly disorganized at first. Point must continue to be made that the forecast is of little confidence and just about anything is possible, ,this is going to be a slow moving system that will have a prolonged impact for some areas. It is not going anywhere fast!
Impacts:
Will keep impacts general as there is so much uncertainty with the formation, track, and intensity that these aspects will certainly change over the next few days.
Will go with increasing rain chances Thursday-Monday if nothing else just for the increase in moisture. Should a surface low develop south or SW of the upper TX coast onshore flow on the east and north sides of the system would bring frequent squalls and rain bands, while a system developing S of LA would draw dry air southward cutting off rain chances. I am leaning toward the wetter side of things, but keeping those rain chances close to the coast (south of I-10) for now.
Another potential will be tides. Models are forecasting a decent pressure gradient to develop over the northern Gulf as pressures lower in the western Gulf. Long fetch ESE to SE wind on the east side of the possible tropical system will support both an increase in seas and tides. Seas will build into the 3-5 foot range by Saturday and 5-8 feet over the weekend (possibly higher). Favorable wind direction will support water movement toward the coast and expect the response to be increasing tides over the weekend. Tides could run 1-2 feet above normal over the weekend due to increasing swells and the favorable wind direction. Should the tropical system develop to our south these numbers will need to be bumped up some. There is the potential for a prolonged coastal flooding event given the very slow nature of this system, but how high both the seas and tides will go are uncertain until it can be determined where the surface low will likely form. Pattern is very similar to TS Frances 1998 which brought a prolonged storm surge of 6-8 feet to the upper TX coast over several days.
I would encourage residents to continue to monitor the weather forecasts for this weekend and early next week closely as rapid changes may be required depending on the evolution of the Gulf system.
Will start out with the ongoing wildfire threat across the area as it appears to have reached a critical point again. Several large fires developed yesterday.
Addicks Fire: 150-450 acre fire burned through heavy brush and grass in Addicks Reservoir west of Eldridge Parkway to the top of the dam. Cy-Fair, Katy, and Houston fire departments responded along with 2 TFS dozers and a DPS helicopter. Fire was mostly brought under control very early this morning.
Beasley Fire: 50-75 acre fire developed along US 59 near Beasley. Rosenberg and Beasley fire departments responded and were able to bring the fire under control.
Huntsville: 175 acre fire burned north of Huntsville near the I-45 rest stop. Numerous fire departments responded along with TFS helicopters providing water drops. Fire was near 100% contained last evening.
Possum Kingdom Fire: Massive wildfire developed yesterday morning in Palo Pinto County west of Fort Worth spreading rapidly to 7,500 acres. 25-30 homes/condos were burned yesterday evening. 200 firefighters from numerous fire departments and 6 TFS dozer crews are working this fire. Numerous air support including C-130 air tankers and TFS helicopters are providing air support. Fire is burning out of control in heavy grass and cedar trees and jumped several fire lines yesterday. An additional 175 homes are threatened. This is the same location that had large fires in April which destroyed 125 homes.
Fire Weather: Little change today compared to the past few days which will result in another elevated fire weather day. Appears stronger winds on Tuesday help fan small fires rapidly into large out of control fires. Expect afternoon RH to fall between 15-35% across the area this afternoon with variable winds of 5-10 mph prior to the seabreeze moving inland, then SE to S winds at 10-15mph and gusty late this afternoon. After temperatures in the upper 90’s to low 100’s. Vegetation is extremely dry and will result in rapid fire growth.
Thursday:
Deep moisture now over the central Gulf of Mexico will begin to move inland along the TX coast with increasing chances of rainfall. Should start to see scattered showers/thunderstorms offshore Thursday morning spreading inland with the seabreeze. Best rain chances will be along and south of I-10.
Weekend:
Now for the fun part! Uncertainty abounds with this system still this morning!
All models still develop some kind of tropical system in the NW/W/N Gulf this weekend and linger it around for a few to several days. Still do not think any one of the models has a better solution than the other. CMC dump the system altogether yesterday and now brings a hurricane to the upper TX coast. ECMWF develops a low off of KBRO and drifts it ENE and then SW and then around the middle of next week sends it back NW as a hurricane into the upper TX/SW LA coast. GFS develops a system off of S LA and moves it eastward toward NW FL. NAM continues to be aggressive in the short term and brings a strong TS toward Galveston Bay and then moves it slightly inland only to send it back offshore. Will not follow any of the guidance solutions, even though the ECMWF and NAM do have support from the GFS ensembles.
Will instead go with the general idea of a broad surface low forming somewhere in the central or NW Gulf late Friday and moving very slowly NW toward the middle/upper TX coast. System will likely slow/stall/meander near or offshore through much of the weekend before either moving WSW toward the lower/middle coast or turning NE toward the upper coast/SW LA. Would give slightly more credit to the WSW motion, but it may not be enough to get it inland as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF in which the system is left over the Gulf into the middle of next week getting stronger and stronger. System looks very large (broad) over the weekend and will likely be fairly disorganized at first. Point must continue to be made that the forecast is of little confidence and just about anything is possible, ,this is going to be a slow moving system that will have a prolonged impact for some areas. It is not going anywhere fast!
Impacts:
Will keep impacts general as there is so much uncertainty with the formation, track, and intensity that these aspects will certainly change over the next few days.
Will go with increasing rain chances Thursday-Monday if nothing else just for the increase in moisture. Should a surface low develop south or SW of the upper TX coast onshore flow on the east and north sides of the system would bring frequent squalls and rain bands, while a system developing S of LA would draw dry air southward cutting off rain chances. I am leaning toward the wetter side of things, but keeping those rain chances close to the coast (south of I-10) for now.
Another potential will be tides. Models are forecasting a decent pressure gradient to develop over the northern Gulf as pressures lower in the western Gulf. Long fetch ESE to SE wind on the east side of the possible tropical system will support both an increase in seas and tides. Seas will build into the 3-5 foot range by Saturday and 5-8 feet over the weekend (possibly higher). Favorable wind direction will support water movement toward the coast and expect the response to be increasing tides over the weekend. Tides could run 1-2 feet above normal over the weekend due to increasing swells and the favorable wind direction. Should the tropical system develop to our south these numbers will need to be bumped up some. There is the potential for a prolonged coastal flooding event given the very slow nature of this system, but how high both the seas and tides will go are uncertain until it can be determined where the surface low will likely form. Pattern is very similar to TS Frances 1998 which brought a prolonged storm surge of 6-8 feet to the upper TX coast over several days.
I would encourage residents to continue to monitor the weather forecasts for this weekend and early next week closely as rapid changes may be required depending on the evolution of the Gulf system.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
HPC 5 Day QPF Totals...subject to changes...
...GULF COAST REGION...
AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND GULF COAST STATES... AS THE GUIDANCE CAPTURES A SIGNIFICANT
POOLING AND POSSIBLE SURGE OF DEEP LL/TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON THURS AND FRI. HOWEVER... A
NUMBER OF THESE MODELS ALSO INCLUDE SIGNS ON A DEVELOPING BROAD OR
EVEN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NEEDLESS TO SAY... THERE IS PLENTY OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY. THE
ONE VERY CONSISTENT AND CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND HPC FOLLOWED THIS MODEL ALONG WITH THE MEAN
850 MB FLOW AS A BASE FOR QPF BOTH DAYS. THE DEEP FLOW OVER THE
GULF SHOULD ADVECT AN INFLUX OF AOA OR GREATER THAN 2 INCH PWS
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TX COASTLINE FOR BETTER ENHANCED
SHOWER/CONVECTION ACTIVITY BOTH DAYS... ESPECIALLY IN LA/SERN TX.
...GULF COAST REGION...
AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND GULF COAST STATES... AS THE GUIDANCE CAPTURES A SIGNIFICANT
POOLING AND POSSIBLE SURGE OF DEEP LL/TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON THURS AND FRI. HOWEVER... A
NUMBER OF THESE MODELS ALSO INCLUDE SIGNS ON A DEVELOPING BROAD OR
EVEN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NEEDLESS TO SAY... THERE IS PLENTY OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY. THE
ONE VERY CONSISTENT AND CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND HPC FOLLOWED THIS MODEL ALONG WITH THE MEAN
850 MB FLOW AS A BASE FOR QPF BOTH DAYS. THE DEEP FLOW OVER THE
GULF SHOULD ADVECT AN INFLUX OF AOA OR GREATER THAN 2 INCH PWS
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TX COASTLINE FOR BETTER ENHANCED
SHOWER/CONVECTION ACTIVITY BOTH DAYS... ESPECIALLY IN LA/SERN TX.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2509
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
450 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011
...VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST WITH TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO HEADED INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND...
.DISCUSSION...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST SO LETS GET TO IT.
FIRST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. ALOFT...HAVE 300MB/500MB RIDGE OVER THE S PLAINS INTO THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY. WEAKER 700MB RIDGE OVER THE SAME AREA AND
850MB RIDGE OVER THE S APPALACHIANS. SFC RIDGE ALSO POSITIONED
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BUOY DATA SHOWS WEAK SFC TROUGH PROBABLY CENTERED
NEAR THE 42001 BUOY WHICH UNFORTUNATELY IS NOT WORKING. THERE IS
SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE MISS RIVER DELTA WHICH
SEEMS TO BE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY OF SOME SORT.
WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE QUITE STRONG WITH ANVIL SHIELD TO
THE EAST. WEST WINDS ALOFT SEEMED LINKED TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
THE MISS RIVER DELTA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHEAR WILL HAVE TO
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
CAN OCCUR.
SO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW I THINK
SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...MOST LIKELY A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM...OFF THE LA COAST. ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. LOOKS LIKE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOOKING AT THE SREF/NAM/ECMWF/GFS/GEM...ALL
SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED SFC LOW. REALITY IS THAT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
HOLD A CENTER OF CIRCULATION WHERE EVER THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN
REMAIN ESTABLISHED AND COULD RELOCATE UNDER BETTER DEEP
CONVECTION. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY OFF THE LA COAST. THERE WILL BE SOME TENDENCY TO BRING
THE SYSTEM INLAND LA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS
TRICKY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO GET PICKED UP BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE S ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE 850MB RIDGE IS
SLOWER TO ERODE AND DOES SO WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES EXCEPT FOR THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER BRING THE
SYSTEM INLAND LATE SUN AND OFF TO THE EAST. BUT ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AT THIS TIME LEAVE THE SYSTEM OFF THE LA COAST
AND DO NOT MOVE IT INLAND. THE 850MB RIDGE BUILD IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID WEST MON/TUE. SFC
RIDGE ALSO BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES
AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS COULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK TO THE SW OFF
THE TX COAST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PICKING UP THE SYSTEM
IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME.
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A EVEN BIGGER QUESTION. THE
NAM/ECMWF REALLY DEEPEN THE SYSTEM...ECMWF MORE SO IN THE
EARLY/MID WEEK TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTENT WITH A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM WHILE THE ECMWF GOES FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE. SINCE
NO SYSTEM HAS FORMED YET...DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH WILL REALLY
PAN OUT. REALITY IS THAT THE WHOLE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON MODELS RESOLVE THE SYSTEM ONCE IT DOES FORM.
IMPACTS FOR SE TX...GIVEN A QUASI STATIONARY LOCATION OFF THE LA
COAST...COULD HAVE LARGE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WITH DRIER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND IT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX. ALONG THE
COAST...THINK THERE WILL BE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BUT DEPENDS ON
RAINBANDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. COASTAL IMPACTS WILL BE
GREATEST WITH A COASTAL FLOODING...RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALL
POSSIBLE. INLAND FLOODING THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO THE DROUGHT
AND POSSIBLY BEING ON THE W OR NW SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
THE BEST THING TO DO IS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR ANY
CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT WITH YOUR HURRICANE PLAN SHOULD
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACT THE AREA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
450 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011
...VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST WITH TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO HEADED INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND...
.DISCUSSION...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST SO LETS GET TO IT.
FIRST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. ALOFT...HAVE 300MB/500MB RIDGE OVER THE S PLAINS INTO THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY. WEAKER 700MB RIDGE OVER THE SAME AREA AND
850MB RIDGE OVER THE S APPALACHIANS. SFC RIDGE ALSO POSITIONED
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BUOY DATA SHOWS WEAK SFC TROUGH PROBABLY CENTERED
NEAR THE 42001 BUOY WHICH UNFORTUNATELY IS NOT WORKING. THERE IS
SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE MISS RIVER DELTA WHICH
SEEMS TO BE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY OF SOME SORT.
WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE QUITE STRONG WITH ANVIL SHIELD TO
THE EAST. WEST WINDS ALOFT SEEMED LINKED TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
THE MISS RIVER DELTA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHEAR WILL HAVE TO
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
CAN OCCUR.
SO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW I THINK
SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...MOST LIKELY A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM...OFF THE LA COAST. ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. LOOKS LIKE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOOKING AT THE SREF/NAM/ECMWF/GFS/GEM...ALL
SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED SFC LOW. REALITY IS THAT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
HOLD A CENTER OF CIRCULATION WHERE EVER THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN
REMAIN ESTABLISHED AND COULD RELOCATE UNDER BETTER DEEP
CONVECTION. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY OFF THE LA COAST. THERE WILL BE SOME TENDENCY TO BRING
THE SYSTEM INLAND LA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS
TRICKY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO GET PICKED UP BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE S ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE 850MB RIDGE IS
SLOWER TO ERODE AND DOES SO WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES EXCEPT FOR THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER BRING THE
SYSTEM INLAND LATE SUN AND OFF TO THE EAST. BUT ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AT THIS TIME LEAVE THE SYSTEM OFF THE LA COAST
AND DO NOT MOVE IT INLAND. THE 850MB RIDGE BUILD IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID WEST MON/TUE. SFC
RIDGE ALSO BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES
AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS COULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK TO THE SW OFF
THE TX COAST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PICKING UP THE SYSTEM
IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME.
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A EVEN BIGGER QUESTION. THE
NAM/ECMWF REALLY DEEPEN THE SYSTEM...ECMWF MORE SO IN THE
EARLY/MID WEEK TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTENT WITH A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM WHILE THE ECMWF GOES FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE. SINCE
NO SYSTEM HAS FORMED YET...DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH WILL REALLY
PAN OUT. REALITY IS THAT THE WHOLE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON MODELS RESOLVE THE SYSTEM ONCE IT DOES FORM.
IMPACTS FOR SE TX...GIVEN A QUASI STATIONARY LOCATION OFF THE LA
COAST...COULD HAVE LARGE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WITH DRIER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND IT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX. ALONG THE
COAST...THINK THERE WILL BE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BUT DEPENDS ON
RAINBANDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. COASTAL IMPACTS WILL BE
GREATEST WITH A COASTAL FLOODING...RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALL
POSSIBLE. INLAND FLOODING THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO THE DROUGHT
AND POSSIBLY BEING ON THE W OR NW SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
THE BEST THING TO DO IS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR ANY
CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT WITH YOUR HURRICANE PLAN SHOULD
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACT THE AREA.
So depressing! 
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
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txflagwaver
- Posts: 411
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 2:37 pm
- Location: Seabrook/Kemah
- Contact:
Heavy mist here...hopefully we will get a couple of rain bands through here before Lee heads of North
Forecast for Bedias:
Partly cloudy and extremely hot, with a 75% chance of fire. Tonight... fire ending from the west, with a 40% chance of brimstone.
Outlook for the remainder of the month: See above.
Partly cloudy and extremely hot, with a 75% chance of fire. Tonight... fire ending from the west, with a 40% chance of brimstone.
Outlook for the remainder of the month: See above.
What are the Effects of Drought?
http://environment.about.com/od/environ ... ffects.htm
Droughts should not be dismissed as annoying and boring. They are serious. They contribute to famine, thirst, disease, wildfires, migration, and even war.
The drought is going to hurt us economically in our wallet and our economy.
http://environment.about.com/od/environ ... ffects.htm
Droughts should not be dismissed as annoying and boring. They are serious. They contribute to famine, thirst, disease, wildfires, migration, and even war.
The drought is going to hurt us economically in our wallet and our economy.
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srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Very ominous e-mail just received from Jeff:
Red Flag Warning in effect for all of SE TX today and again on Monday
Wind Advisory in effect
Strong pressure gradient between Lee over LA and high pressure building southward producing 30-45mph winds this early afternoon. College Station just gusted to 40mph and Hearne TX, 46mph. Winds will continue strong this afternoon and again on Monday as a cold front moves across the area. A few of the dead/dry limbs in many of the dead trees may come down this afternoon with these kind of winds.
Extremely dangerous fire weather conditions continue across the area today and will worsen on Monday. RH is still up a little today along with some cloud cover especially east of I-45 (the western edge of Lee’s cloud shield). However very strong winds are making conditions favorable for rapid fire growth should a fire start. Winds of 25-40mph will continue until mid evening and then weaken overnight, but remain in the 10-15mph range. Fire yesterday in NW Harris County near FM 1960 burned 50 acres and threatened several homes.
Monday:
Critical fire weather will be in place as a cold front sweeps across the region. Potential for fast moving large wildfires given very strong surface winds of 20-35mph. RH will fall to less than 20-25% Monday afternoon behind a cold front as a very dry air mass sweeps southward. Dead/very dry fuels will easily ignite given the conditions and fire spread will be rapid. Strong winds will result in downstream spot fires and fire lines will likely be compromised. Good potential for long crown runs in tree tops making ground efforts dangerous, heavy air support will be needed. RH recovery Monday evening will be poor. This is about as bad as it gets fire weather wise in SE TX!
Red Flag Warning in effect for all of SE TX today and again on Monday
Wind Advisory in effect
Strong pressure gradient between Lee over LA and high pressure building southward producing 30-45mph winds this early afternoon. College Station just gusted to 40mph and Hearne TX, 46mph. Winds will continue strong this afternoon and again on Monday as a cold front moves across the area. A few of the dead/dry limbs in many of the dead trees may come down this afternoon with these kind of winds.
Extremely dangerous fire weather conditions continue across the area today and will worsen on Monday. RH is still up a little today along with some cloud cover especially east of I-45 (the western edge of Lee’s cloud shield). However very strong winds are making conditions favorable for rapid fire growth should a fire start. Winds of 25-40mph will continue until mid evening and then weaken overnight, but remain in the 10-15mph range. Fire yesterday in NW Harris County near FM 1960 burned 50 acres and threatened several homes.
Monday:
Critical fire weather will be in place as a cold front sweeps across the region. Potential for fast moving large wildfires given very strong surface winds of 20-35mph. RH will fall to less than 20-25% Monday afternoon behind a cold front as a very dry air mass sweeps southward. Dead/very dry fuels will easily ignite given the conditions and fire spread will be rapid. Strong winds will result in downstream spot fires and fire lines will likely be compromised. Good potential for long crown runs in tree tops making ground efforts dangerous, heavy air support will be needed. RH recovery Monday evening will be poor. This is about as bad as it gets fire weather wise in SE TX!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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HGX 88D shows 40dbz fire burning along I-10 in Colorado County right now. Developed and went from 20dbz to 40dbz in the last 45 minutes. Winds are howling out of the NNW at 25-40mph....fires are going to burn fast and hot...
Just saw that major fire out in Colorado County ....the radar signature is amazing.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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jeff wrote:HGX 88D shows 40dbz fire burning along I-10 in Colorado County right now. Developed and went from 20dbz to 40dbz in the last 45 minutes. Winds are howling out of the NNW at 25-40mph....fires are going to burn fast and hot...
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srainhoutx
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The fire is also showing up on EWX ans GRK radars as well. Jeff, any word on air support?
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
FREESTONE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.
ALL RESIDENTS THAT LIVE WEST OF TEAGUE AND SOUTH OF FARM TO MARKET
1365 HAVE BEEN ORDERED TO EVACUATE DUE TO A RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE APPROACHING THE AREA. RESIDENTS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE
ENCOURAGED TO LEAVE THEIR RESIDENCES IMMEDIATELY AND HEAD SOUTH
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FIRE. EITHER FARM TO MARKET
ROAD 80 OR 39 MAY BE AVAILABLE TO HEAD SOUTH ON TO REACH HIGHWAY
164. TAKE HIGHWAY 164 EAST UNTIL YOU AREA CLEAR OF ANY FIRE OR
SMOKE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO HEAVY OR DENSE SMOKE...NEVER CROSS ANY
BARRICADED ROADWAYS. MORE INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED AS
FREESTONE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE RELAY IT.
FIRE WARNING
TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
FREESTONE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.
ALL RESIDENTS THAT LIVE WEST OF TEAGUE AND SOUTH OF FARM TO MARKET
1365 HAVE BEEN ORDERED TO EVACUATE DUE TO A RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE APPROACHING THE AREA. RESIDENTS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE
ENCOURAGED TO LEAVE THEIR RESIDENCES IMMEDIATELY AND HEAD SOUTH
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FIRE. EITHER FARM TO MARKET
ROAD 80 OR 39 MAY BE AVAILABLE TO HEAD SOUTH ON TO REACH HIGHWAY
164. TAKE HIGHWAY 164 EAST UNTIL YOU AREA CLEAR OF ANY FIRE OR
SMOKE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO HEAVY OR DENSE SMOKE...NEVER CROSS ANY
BARRICADED ROADWAYS. MORE INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED AS
FREESTONE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE RELAY IT.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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From NWS Austin/San Antonio/ 3:20PM:
.FIRE WEATHER...
AREA RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM FIRES ON THE INCREASE IN THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. WELL MIXED AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION NNE FOR MOST
AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS TO IMPACT THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AS RH VALUES RECOVER
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL RH VALUES WILL
RETURN QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH THE WINDS RELAXING A
BIT BY THE TIME THE AFTERNOON RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT. MODELS HAVE
VARIED SOLUTIONS ON TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK...BUT ALL KEEP A
REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR UNDER A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
.FIRE WEATHER...
AREA RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM FIRES ON THE INCREASE IN THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. WELL MIXED AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION NNE FOR MOST
AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS TO IMPACT THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AS RH VALUES RECOVER
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL RH VALUES WILL
RETURN QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH THE WINDS RELAXING A
BIT BY THE TIME THE AFTERNOON RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT. MODELS HAVE
VARIED SOLUTIONS ON TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK...BUT ALL KEEP A
REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR UNDER A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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Large wildfire now in Lee County near Bastrop...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
TEXAS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE BASTROP
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION NOTICE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PEOPLE IN THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DUE TO THE THREAT OF A WILDFIRE...
CIRCLE D COUNTY ACRES AREA...PINE VIEW WEST...LAKE BASTROP
PINE...PORTIONS OF TAHITIAN VILLAGE...COLOVISTA...ALAN CREEK...
BASTROP STATE PARK...AND RESIDENTS ALONG HARMON ROAD AND PINE HILL
LOOP.
IF YOU ARE IN DANGER AND CANNOT EVACUATE FROM THIS AREA...PLEASE
CALL 911.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
TEXAS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE BASTROP
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION NOTICE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PEOPLE IN THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DUE TO THE THREAT OF A WILDFIRE...
CIRCLE D COUNTY ACRES AREA...PINE VIEW WEST...LAKE BASTROP
PINE...PORTIONS OF TAHITIAN VILLAGE...COLOVISTA...ALAN CREEK...
BASTROP STATE PARK...AND RESIDENTS ALONG HARMON ROAD AND PINE HILL
LOOP.
IF YOU ARE IN DANGER AND CANNOT EVACUATE FROM THIS AREA...PLEASE
CALL 911.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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There are also fires in Mexia and Teague, TX! This is horrible!!
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
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