redneckweather wrote:So basically what Jeff is saying is that southeast, Texas is going to be dry and will miss any good rains. He also mentions the tropics which will not even remotely effect us. Nice.
that's not how I read his post:
"Result of this pattern will be true tropical moisture invading the region by Friday with PWS progged to increase into the 1.5-1.8 inch range. Feel that the best dynamics from embedded short waves in the SSW to SW flow on the eastern side of the trough will be focused along and W of I-35 and this is where the best rain chances will reside. The dividing ground between a wet west TX and a fairly dry east TX looks to be across SE TX with the best rain chances on Friday and Saturday west of I-45 and likely near Matagorda Bay while areas east of I-45 may see no rainfall at all. Models are not in overall good agreement on the track and speed of the trough over the western US, but such long and deep systems tend to move slower than forecast, so rain chances may end up lower on Friday and higher on Sunday just due to a slower progression of the system into the plains. Will fine tune over the next few days and hopefully be able to tick rain chances up a touch!"
Feel that the best dynamics from embedded short waves in the SSW to SW flow on the eastern side of the trough will be focused along and W of I-35 and this is where the best rain chances will reside.
The precip maps you posted back up his forecast which = Southeast, Texas high and dry. I'm glad that other parts of Texas could see some relief but sucks for us though.
With the models flip flopping regarding moisture returning, strength/deep nature of the Western trough and embedded short waves in the sub tropical flow, the prudent call is to keep things rather dry, rainfall wise, and see what future guidance suggests as we near the weekend. We often see guidance struggle with a pattern that is expected to unfold and the effect of a Kelvin wave and a MJO pulse... IMO
00Z Ensembles don't look all that bad, by the way...
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:GFS- Big show is Northwest of here, the future EPac hurricane landfalls too far South to do much for us, but coastal streamer/warm advection showers help some.
No heavy rain in our area with this over the next few days....just spotty showers here and there. Just enough to piss you off. lol It's good to see that some parts of Texas will get a good ol fashion soaking!!
Just incredible that Lee dumped so much rain to our east, and this system is pouring so much rain out in West Texas, and we're relegated to a few sprinkles...
Where is all this wind coming from? It is crazy windy here tonight!!
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Thank you for the explanation. Sure wish that was our area under all that rain, but am glad to see our fellow Texans getting some much needed liquid gold!!
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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I have been holding off on saying anything but things are looking really good for a lot of the area to get some REAL rain! This is the most amount of rain this state has received in over a year really! If things do hold up a lot of SE Texas could see more rain in the next few hours then they have in what seems like forever! Keep your fingers crossed!
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