June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[srainhoutx]

HPC Afternoon Update regarding any future tropical mischief:

CURRENT MJO IN PHASE 8 ENTERING PHASE 1 CONTINUES SHOWING
FAVORABLE VELOCITY POTENTAIL ANOMALIES AND H200 AND H850 OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN
CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX. BROAD SCALE ANOMALOUS H850 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
TROPICAL EPAC SUPPORTS BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AIDING IN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY EPAC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT WRN CARIB AND LOWER GLFMEX. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING VARIOUS FORMS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH THE EPAC AND
WRN CARIB/LOWER GLFMEX BASINS AND EXPECT THAT SOME FORM OF
TROPICAL DVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OR BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE PERIOD AND
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is a tad more developed, albeit a broad low pressure near Tampico, MX. This run does have a bit better 850mb vorticity and with the ridge to the N any movement would be very slow with a hint of a drift N along the Mexican Gulf Coastline. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

HGX afternoon update:

OVERALL WATER VAPOR CONTENT REMAINS ELEVATED OVER MOST OF THE
PERIOD AND...WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN GULF...EASTERLY FLOW STEERING THIS WAVE(S)
TOWARDS OUR COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHERN FA/MARINE LOWER-END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-JUNE. THE ENSEMBLE TRENDS TOWARDS GENERALLY
WEAKER RIDGING...OR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EVENTUALLY FALLING WITHIN A
(HEIGHT) WEAKNESS CHANNEL. THIS MESHES WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING A
NORTHERN GULF EASTERLY WAVE WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COAST. NAM12 HAS
A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING INTO OUR WATERS SUNDAY. THE
GFS SOLUTION STILL DEVELOPS A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION /WEAK SFC
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
...CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ALSO PICKS UP
ON THESE LOWER SFC PRESSURES AND...ALBEIT MORE BROAD AND WEAK...DOES
MOVE THIS FEATURE UP THE MEXICO COAST THROUGH DAY 10. FWIW...THE
NOGAPS ALSO DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
HR 144. ALL OF THIS TRANSLATES TO AN EARLY WEEK SOUTHEAST-TRANSITIONING
-TO-EASTERLY FETCH THAT WILL PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE INTO AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE SOLUTIONS GAIN MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE COMING DAYS THEN EXPECT A BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM
WITHIN A WEEK AND HEIGHTENED SE TX RAIN/ISO STORM PROBABILITIES.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

TXZ199-200-213-142230-
HARRIS TX-LIBERTY TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
442 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HARRIS...WEST
CENTRAL LIBERTY AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUMBLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGWOOD...HUMBLE...LAKE HOUSTON...PORTER AND PORTER HEIGHTS.

[jgreak]

Cautiously optimistic here in kingwood, the thunder is rumbling...

[jgreak]

Not sure what the radar is picking up on, the sun is out in Kingwood, despite the highest cloud tops being directly overhead according to radar.

[bikerack]

Not sure what the radar is picking up on, the sun is out in Kingwood, despite the highest cloud tops being directly overhead according to radar.

I got 1+" of rain in Atascocita. Hard/steady rain for 30-45 mins.

[srainhoutx]

Guidance has come into better agreement suggesting an Easterly Wave will meander W along the Gulf Coast toward Texas during the weekend. An easterly flow across the Gulf will become established over the next couple days as rain chances begin to increase Saturday into Sunday as the upper ridge shifts W and the mid level disturbance slowly creeps Westward from Louisiana. Moisture levels will increase on Sunday through Tuesday with increasing chances of scattered showers/storms mainly along our Coastal Counties before spreading inland Monday and Tuesday of next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS RAN CLOSER TO NAM MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS
YESTERDAY. 15/00Z MOS RUNS FROM NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL ECMWF MOS
AGAIN WARMER THAN GFS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY TRANSMIT
ANOTHER AFD THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE FINAL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OR
CHECK THE LASTEST CCFHGX. HAVING SAID THAT NAM MOS PROVIDED BETTER
TEMP FORECASTS YESTERDAY THE WINNER ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WAS THE
GFS WITH BETTER FORECAST OF CAP AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND AS
WELL. SMALL WINDOW GENERALLY FROM 21Z TO APPROXIMATELY 01Z FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. FCST PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE 90F AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS
IS POSSIBLE AS NOTED BY SPC. ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP A LITTLE MORE BREAKABLE TOMORROW SO
UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY.

LONGER RANGE BEGINNING TO LOOK WET. WEAKNESS/EASTERLY WAVE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE MEAN SFC-700MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE TOWARDS SE TEXAS. WEAK UPPER TROF AT
500-250MB REMAINS CLOSE BY AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE SFC FEATURE PWATS
CLIMB AND SE TX IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR LIFT SO 30/40 PERCENT
POPS SEEM PRUDENT. BOTH GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL ECMWF MOS RAISE POPS
FURTHER FOR MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FROM
POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE. STILL WAY TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL
TOO FAR OUT (LATE NEXT WEEK!) TO FINE TUNE TIMING OR LOCATIONS SO
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. GFS RAISES PWAT VALUES
TREMENDOUSLY WHILE ECMWF IS MORE RESTRAINED. WENT GENERALLY WITH A
2 PARTS ECM AND 1 PART GFS BLEND IN THE EXTENDED.


The global models are in better agreement that some form of Tropical Troubles will develop in the Western Gulf/Bay of Campeche next week and we will continue our discussions regarding that disturbance in the Hurricane Central area of our Forum with the increased attention it will bring. Stay Tuned!

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1187

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS Ensembles echo what HGX was mentioning this morning regarding a wet pattern late this weekend into next week...

[jasons2k]

Cell towards Humble beautiful, yet odd yesterday around 5 pm. Tilted maybe 10 to 20º from base to anvil. Anvil itself not that large. A skinny, tilted tower. Prettier visually than when I checked radar at home.

I saw it too, it was unusual but very beautiful!! That may explain why the radar was off, showing the rain over jgreak.

[srainhoutx]

Some more immediate attention turns to just offshore of Ft Walton Beach, FL. This is part of the easterly wave that extends along a trough S of New Orleans. The Bermuda Ridge is strengthening to its NE and that feature will push W along the Gulf Coast. What is a bit interesting is Alicia 83' formed in a somewhat similar fashion. At this time not much if any development is expected, but it is noteworthy that these type quick spin ups are not uncommon and will increase our rain chances later this weekend into next early next week.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Definitley rotating off the FLA Panhandle:

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
FOR THE PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY WATER OUT TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT/1045 AM EDT/

* AT 912 AM EDT/812 AM CDT/...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
DETECTED MULITPLE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS
OR GREATER ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ROTATING AROUND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF/NMM does suggest a bit of consolidation as the wave approaches SW LA/SE TX on Sunday. Regardless of whatever happens, our rain chances will increase and remain rather high into most if not all of next week. That's a far cry from what we experienced last summer.

The attachment 06152012 12Z WRF NMM f54.gif is no longer available

[rnmm]

Does anyone think the wave/swirl that is off the FL Panhandle will receive an Invest tag from the NHC?

[weatherguy425]

Going to need to watch outflow boundary charging south and east from north Texas. Already seeing some home grown showers, which is an earlier start than the past few days (for central areas).

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

[rnmm]

Does anyone think the wave/swirl that is off the FL Panhandle will receive an Invest tag from the NHC?

Time for the old standby, the U-Wisconsin CIMMS tropical analysis tools...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... zoom=&time

Westerly shear near 20 knots not favorable, but only somewhat hostile, not down by 7 touchdowns with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter hostile. But visible imagery shows the shear holding it back.

It has low to mid-level vorticity, which is a plus, along with low level convergence. Upper convergence not all there. TLH sounding shows about 1.8 inch PW, which is decent, but compare Carlotta on TPW w/ NE Gulf, and it isn't great.

GFS and NAM both track the vort across the Gulf w/o much development.


In other model news, both suggest an attempt at hybrid Atlantic development, and GFS brings what appears to be a depression or minimal Tropical Storm Chris to Brownsville a week from tomorrow

Thank you, Ed! I appreciate your feedback!!

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD LATER
TODAY...AND THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[srainhoutx]

This is one of the more interesting and informative AFD's that HGX as issued in a long time. Well worth the read and certainly depicts the various players on the field in the weather department...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND AREA IS WINNING
THE BATTLE TODAY AS THE RADAR HAS BEEN QUIET THUS FAR. MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION BUT OVERALL LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS CONTROLLING
TODAY`S SCENE. STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THE LATEST
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME EAST-SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
12Z HI-RES ARW WRF HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST AND DOES CARRY THIS
ONGOING HARDIN-JEFFERSON COUNTY CONVECTION FURTHER WEST INTO
LIBERTY COUNTY IN THE COMING HOURS...MAYBE ALLOWING A FEW VERY
LATE DAY INTO EVENING CELLS TO FORM AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
I-45 CORRIDOR AND AFFECT GREATER HOUSTON METRO...ABOUT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE/AREAL COVERAGE.

THE MAIN STORY GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW MUCH THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS IN ALLOWING AN EASTERLY NORTHERN
GULF WAVE TO AFFECT OUR SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS MORNING`S GFS
ENSEMBLE 5H MEMBER RUNS DO AGREE ON BACKING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST
OPENING THE DOOR FOR RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHTS TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF BY LATE SUNDAY-EARLY MONDAY. ALL OF THE OTHER PROGS
DO PULL RIDGING BACK TO THE WEST AND KEEP THIS IDEA OF A NORTHERN
GULF EASTERLY WAVE/CIRCULATION TO TRAVEL TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP EARLY WEEK SOUTHERN CWA/MARITIME
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE. DUE TO CONTINUED SLIGHTLY HIGHER-
THAN-NORMAL H20V VALUES...MAINLY CLOUDY WITH PEEKS AT DAILY SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DAY-TO-DAY AFTERNOONS IN THE MIDDLE 80S
TO LOWER 90S. VERY MILD AND HUMID MORNINGS IN THE MEAN MIDDLE 70S
FAR NORTH...AROUND 80F AT COAST.

THE NEXT BIG STORY WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CIRCULATION THE
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BEGINNING
AROUND TUESDAY. MANY SHIFTS AHEAD OF THIS ONE TO FINE TUNE WHERE
THIS LOW/SYSTEM DOES MEANDER IF/WHEN IT FORMS. IF THE MODELS ARE
ON TO SOMETHING AND THEY DO VERIFY...IT TRANSLATES TO EVEN HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT BEING CHANNELED INTO OUR REGION UPON A LONG DURATION
SE-TO-E FETCH. INCREASED THETA E RIDGING (305K SFC) MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AND THIS DE-STABILIZATION SCENARIO
LEANS TOWARDS HIGH PRECIPITATION EVENT(S). AS OF NOW...JUST BOOKMARKED
CATEGORICAL -TSRA IN WX GRIDS...BUT IF PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON
THIS CIRCULATION MOVING UP THE MEXICO COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND...THEN RAIN-BANDING ATOP OF THIS LARGE SCALE
FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE DISCUSSION TURNING TO THAT OF A MORE-TROPICAL
AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH(ER) QPF.

[srainhoutx]

The forecast remains unchanged today. Guidance suggest the inverted trough/upper air disturbance will slowly meander W form SE of Mobile, AL along the Gulf Coastal waters to near SW LA/SE TX on Monday. Increase tropical moisture will follow that feature as it continues slide inland along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast on Tuesday. Most of the ‘activity' is on the E side of that feature where the deeper moisture will reside, so showers/storm will be on the up tick beginning late Sunday and into Tuesday mainly along our Coastal Counties and slowly spreading inland Monday and Tuesday of next week.

HPC:

...CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST...

MODELS INITIALLY AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF THE TAIL END OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF...SEPARATING AND SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST TOWARD THE TX COAST SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THE 00Z NAM DEVELOPS A RELATIVELY STRONG SFC
REFLECTION AND BRINGS IT INTO THE UPPER TX COAST...BUT WAS IGNORED
DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT FROM THE REMAINING MODELS. HPC FOLLOWED THE
IDEA OF A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST...SIMILAR TO THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CMC...WITH AN UPPER LOW SETTLING NEAR BRO BY TUE
MORNING AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKING UP THROUGH THE LOWER SRN
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
LOUISIANA. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 KT TOWARD THE NNW WITH
MAINLY WEAK...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FCST FROM THE SSE.

The next item on the agenda will be the disturbed weather/broad low pressure system the model have been ‘sniffing’ for days in the Bay of Campeche. A Tropical Wave axis moved off the Yucatan overnight into the Bay of Campeche and will continue to spread NW toward the Mexican Gulf Coast. Moisture from former Hurricane Carlotta has spread over the mountains in the mid to upper levels while deep tropical moisture works NW from the Western Caribbean into the Southern Gulf. The monsoonal trough has lifted N with Carlotta and some vorticity in the mid levels will spread E in the light Westerly flow from the Pacific. The guidance generally agree that a broad low pressure will form near Vera Cruz and slowly meander N along Gulf Coast Mexico toward South Texas and long fetch E and SE flow of the Gulf will be located on the E side of that developing broad low pressure. We will continue to monitor future guidance for changes or any potential strengthening or consolidation of that surface low which would tend to draw moisture closer to any circulation center. My hunch is that this area of disturbed weather will never full tighten up and will remain broad in nature and provide a good shot at some increased rainfall for Coastal Texas and Louisiana. We will see.

[txsnowmaker]

NWS is concerned about funnel clouds in Houston today??


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
823 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

TXZ213-214-235>238-161900-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EDNA...BAY CITY...
PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...
FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON
823 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

TODAYS MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THE FORMATION OF SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS AND OR WATERSPOUTS.
WATERSPOUTS CAN COME ONSHORE AS WEAK TORNADOES.

PLEASE REPORT ANY FUNNEL CLOUD OR WATERSPOUT TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AND ASK THEM TO RELAY THAT REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.