September. Heavy Rainfall Event/Flooding Possible 9/28-30th

[biggerbyte]

Just a couple of showers through this entire event here in Porter.

Unbelievable!

[MESOMAN]

All these post about everyone getting rainfal is depressing. I only got 0.25 in Spring from the entire event. To make matters worse, I got a big goose egg from the last 2 events! Why cant I get some good rain. More sprinkers for me!

[wxman57]

Over 2" with the event in southwest Houston.

[biggerbyte]

IN MY LOCATION,WHICH IS IN THE VICINITY OF PEARLAND,FRIENDSWOOD, WE GOT ZERO RAIN YESTERDAY AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LAST NIGHT.VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING FELL.
THE FORECAST YESTERDAY CALLED FOR A 70% CHANCE OF RAIN.WHICH WAS A JOKE.IM NOT EVEN SMART WHEN IT COMES TO THIS WEATHER STUFF.AND EVEN I COULD TELL BY LOOKING AT THE RADAR THAT WE WOULD GET NOTHING.BUT THE FORECAST WAS STILL 70%.WHAT KIND OF A BAD FORCASTING JOKE IS THAT?
THATS MY COMPLAINT.SOMEONE PLEASE ADDRESS THIS

I know how you feel. It is quite depressing when you desperatly need rain. Those big rain percentages can give some folks false hope. Remember that is a 7 in 10 chance of seeing rain. You may be one of those three people who get nothing. I've tried not to pay much attention to percentages. We've had 100% chances of rain and got nothing, and 20% and got dumped on. Heck I've even seen it pour down just across the street in my neighborhood, with not a drop at my home. Welcome to weather.

The only thing I can see in the point you are trying to make, is about the obvious. It was "obvious", as you said, that most of the rain would be west, north, and offshore. You are not going to find any modern forecasters who don't forecast based on model predictions.

[ticka1]

The only thing I can see in the point you are trying to make, is about the obvious. It was "obvious", as you said, that most of the rain would be west, north, and offshore. You are not going to find any modern forecasters who don't forecast based on model predictions.

to bad old school forecasting doesnt exist today because model forecasting ther are more busts the right!

[redneckweather]

My suggestion to you Arizona is for you to get a better understanding of the weather and next time you won't be so disappointed.

[wxman57]

Harris County Flood Control data for the "event" (Thu-Sun) indicate widespread accumulations of 0.5" to 3.5" across the county, and about half of that rain fell yesterday (last evening). Doesn't look like there were many areas that didn't get any rain. I'd say that 70% chance of rain was too low. Verification was close to 100%. Not one rain gauge in the network recorded no rainfall. Just keep in mind that the percent chance of rain says nothing about rainfall amounts.

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[Canebo]

Harris County Flood Control data for the "event" (Thu-Sun) indicate widespread accumulations of 0.5" to 3.5" across the county, and about half of that rain fell yesterday (last evening). Doesn't look like there were many areas that didn't get any rain. I'd say that 70% chance of rain was too low. Verification was close to 100%. Not one rain gauge in the network recorded no rainfall. Just keep in mind that the percent chance of rain says nothing about rainfall amounts.

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

Not a drop in League City (Galveston County). We did get 1/2" on the 12th as this rain extravaganza was kicking off. This year has just been a bad year here. Other years, we have had showers pop up over us while others missed out. I guess turnabout is fair play, but it stinks to continually miss out.
Most of our rain has come once or twice a month in large doses. It doesn't give our sprinklers much of a break with weeks in between rainfalls.

[jasons2k]

.48" is the two day total for me. I'd call < half and inch a bust (for me personally, not the whole area).

[jasons2k]

Not one rain gauge in the network recorded no rainfall.

Well, look closely and there is one 0.00" - by our poor friend Canebo in League City.

[srainhoutx]

A fairly robust short wave is diving SE with a frontal boundary and should bring isolated storms for areas N of I-10 today. That should be it as far as rainfall chances go for the area as we settle into a fall like pattern for the remainder of the week.

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram based on the 06Z (1am CDT) GFS run. Valid for IAH. Not a lot of rain forecast for the next 8 days.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like to drier air is stuck to our N. Some will filter down tonight into tomorrow, but those mid to upper 50's just ain't going to happen in Metro Houston. Mid to upper 60's at best with highs near 90, IMO. And the cold front late week is trending E. I suspect the GFS is more correct with the cooler air being further NE than the over aggressive Euro that would bring 'colder air' S. Regardless, we're heading into a dry period with no rainfall until the very end of September or even early October when an EPAC cyclone may throw some moisture over Texas.

[JackCruz]

I was looking forward to 50degree weather...I'll wait another month I guess....

[srainhoutx]

Nice morning out. Managed a low so far of 62F. It was nice to sleep with the windows open for a change. The Euro has caved to what the GFS had suggested keeping the 'cooler air' with the next front late weekend off to the N and E. We may get a similar pattern as we see with this front, albeit a bit more back door. Enjoy it while it lasts. A Kelvin Wave moves into the Western Basin next week and a return flow becomes established once again with increasing Gulf moisture by later next week.

[JackCruz]

When will there be a winter thread? We need to start talking about the prospects of snow and bitter cold. I'm ready for Houston to create some history.

[JackCruz]

Since it's so dead in here, this is what the 6z had today

[Ptarmigan]

When will there be a winter thread? We need to start talking about the prospects of snow and bitter cold. I'm ready for Houston to create some history.

Since we started La Nina earlier this year and are heading into El Nino, I think this winter could be quite cold. Years that had La Nina to El Nino years produced some really cold winters like 1904-1905, 1911-1912, 1972-1973, 1976-1977, and 2009-2010. They had snow and ice as well.

Here is a map from Farmer's Almanac. I know they are not that accurate.

[jasons2k]

Since it's so dead in here, this is what the 6z had today

Boo! Hiss!! My pool is still 82 and I want to squeeze another weekend or two of swimming in if I can! I'm not ready for the GFS snowmageddon fantasies just yet!

[srainhoutx]

The Chamber of Commerce weather we have been experiencing will linger a few more days as is typical of late summer/early fall across the Lone Star State. A weak boundary will slide off to our E late weekend before a more zonal flow aloft develops across the Western US and a return flow becomes established from the Gulf. The guidance suggests a couple of short waves dropping into the area from the NE early next week and yet another EPAC cyclone develops of the West Coast of Mexico. Early indications are that moisture from the developing tropical system in the EPAC near the Baja may well bring a moisture source in the mid/upper levels E across Texas. While it is too soon to know with any certainty the finer details, rain chances may well return by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week increasing as we head toward the end of September. There are some indications the a pattern pattern will continue into early October as a potential for a couple of landfalling EPAC Hurricanes along the Mexican Coast enter the picture, but that is another month, so we'll save those discussions for another Topic.

I know many are wondering what the fall/winter may bring for the Lone Star State. My hunch is a weak El Nino will finally develop during later part of the fall. I tend to expect a wetter pattern with an active sub tropical jet from the Pacific. As far as temps are concerned, I still believe that there is a bit of uncertainty much like we saw with the early predictions for the tropical season when some expected a lack of tropical activity due to the developing El Nino that never fully came to pass. If I had to guess, I believe that late in December into early February would be the greatest risk for wintry mischief, should it occur if at all. A couple of things we’ll need to monitor are the source regions of NW Canada and Siberia. Also if there is a repeat of the Alaska never ending vortex that we saw last year, it would be very difficult to see an extended period of cold weather in our part of the world. Another are to watch is if the extended drought continues across the Northern Plains and if that continues during the winter months. Less snow would tend to mean more air mass modification from those Polar/Arctic air masses that drop S into the US. One thing for certain, the winter weather lovers will be watching closely for that first Blue Norther and endless model watching for any indications of sustained cold and wintry mischief in the months ahead. Edit to add: for those that enjoy a more technical read of what 'players' may well be involved, I suggest this detailed analysis provided by HM (Anthony) a frequent knowledgeable long range forecaster of Amwx fame...

http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012 ... no-so.html