DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST SAT DEC 08 2012
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. A PERSISTENT BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN AXIS
FROM SOUTHEAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS...INTO TN/KY. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM HELPS TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET.
OVERALL CAPE VALUES ARE WEAK ALONG THIS CORRIDOR DUE TO POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EAST TX
INTO LA/AR WHERE MODELS SUGGEST MODEST HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR. LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...SUPPORTING SOME RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS. EVEN A
WEAK SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
..HART/DISPIGNA.. 12/08/2012
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This "pattern change" talk is giving me a headache. Been hearing about this "pattern change" since November...and after our two nights of a possible freeze next week...back up to the mid to upper 70's we go! With lows in the mid 50's
JackCruz wrote:This "pattern change" talk is giving me a headache. Been hearing about this "pattern change" since November...and after our two nights of a possible freeze next week...back up to the mid to upper 70's we go! With lows in the mid 50's
I have not seen upper 70's for highs next week. I could be wrong or blind, I just saw 70 for a high at the end of the forecast week....
Friday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71.
JackCruz wrote:This "pattern change" talk is giving me a headache. Been hearing about this "pattern change" since November...and after our two nights of a possible freeze next week...back up to the mid to upper 70's we go! With lows in the mid 50's
I have not seen upper 70's for highs next week. I could be wrong or blind, I just saw 70 for a high at the end of the forecast week....
Khou has a high of 70...accuweather has a high of 72 ...channel 13 has a high of 72...all with a low of around 55-56. Still above average. We should be like 65/46 this time of the year, no? I may be wrong....just tired of the the 70's I'll be happy for consistent 60's at least.
No worries from me. The Euro as well as the GFS ensembles brings rain chance into the picture late next week with another trough/upper air disturbance and then another cold front late Friday into Saturday. I have absolutely no issue with a progressive pattern as long as we can get some rain. I think some folks thought that with the El Nino some had forecasted being a distant memory now, the cliff diving began and the cold winter weather lovers started growing weary. Any rain is a good rain in a prolonged drought period in my book...
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Going along with what Srainhoutx said, this 'progressive' pattern will certainly help lay down a modification limiting snow-pack. Add to this a series of troughs moving eastward from the west coast; all it will take is a slight amplification/negatively titled trough to grab some of this good stuff just which appears to re-build in Southwestern Canada around Christmas. Image shows CFSV2 outlook for the week surrounding Christmas; whether or not you're a Bastardi fan, he's being talking this period and beyond up for quite some time. Notice the decent snow-pack and temperature anomalies across the northern tier and Canada....
Got to keep my patience up!
I think, and I could be wrong, but I think we tied the high record temperature for the day at IAH with 83. Lovely. Just lovely. My runs have been sweat fests. Sigh.
wait till January winter doesn't start for a couple more weeks
notice more leaves on the ground, the pets are growing bigger coats they know what's coming.
If there is global warming the earth will know how to fix it. Nature will always win
jgreak wrote:What time is the front looking to blow through tomorrow?
Its going to be after we go to sleep tomorrow night. The front should be off the coast around sunrise Monday. It will be cool in the morning becoming rather chilly by the afternoon.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS POISED JUST SOUTH OF A LUBBOCK
OKLAHOMA CITY
BARTLESVILLE LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY BY THIS EVENING
AND SWEEPING THROUGH ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS RAPID SHIFT TO WINTER
ANOTHER MILD TO WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND WESTERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 80S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS THIS EVENING
STRONG TO SEVERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I=35 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL. AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION
LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND COULD INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 MPH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY
COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH NORTH WINDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CENTER OF THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE. BY TUESDAY MORNING
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ENCOMPASS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AREA
WITH READINGS FALLING TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S AREA-WIDE
STRUGGLING TO REACH NEAR 50 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY LINGER ANOTHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS A BONAFIDE WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW FOR THIS PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER. TENDER VEGETATION AND PETS SHOULD BE PROTECTED. OUTDOOR PIPES SHOULD ALSO BE WRAPPED
ESPECIALLY IN HILL COUNTRY LOCATIONS WHERE MANY HOURS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
Found this little snippet from the SPC interesting:
MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT AFTER 10/00Z WITH A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 09/06Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ISOLATED WIND AND TORNADO THREAT WITH SEWD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
UPPER TX GULF COAST...NRN/WRN LA AND NRN MS.HOWEVER...DIURNAL
COOLING AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED SVR
POTENTIAL WITH TIME.
Powerful Canadian cold front sweeping down the plains will end the record warmth tonight!
Freezing temperatures expected both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
Surface observations show the strong cold front plowing through the TX panhandle and moving S at 25-35mph. Temperatures ahead of the boundary are in the 60’s and 70’s and fall rapidly into the 40’s behind the front with strong NW winds. Front may slow up a little today with warm air mixing along the leading edge, but there should be a good push after dark to bring the boundary and its associated weather into SE TX tonight. While the front approaches from the north, moisture continues to increase from the Gulf ahead of a short wave disturbances currently approaching the Rio Grande. Large scale lift will be increasing this afternoon and expect to see scattered showers begin to develop and move northward from the coast. By this evening strong surface lift with the frontal boundary will come to bear across the area with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing. A few storms could be strong to severe. SPC has placed areas along and north of I-10 in a slight risk for wind damage this evening, but the overall severe threat is on the low side given only marginal instability and shear. System looks fairly similar to the one this past Tuesday with greatest rain chances and coverage mainly across our central and eastern counties with amounts to the west and southwest less as drier mid level air and SW winds in the mid level affect this region.
Front blasts off the coast by sunrise with strong cold air advection ensuing. Highs temperatures will be a midnight with temperatures falling through much of the morning on Monday into the low 40’s north to near 50 at the coast under strong N winds of 15-25mph and gusty. Clouds will slowly clear from WNW to ESE during the afternoon and this clearing may result in a small rebound in temperatures from 3-5pm on Monday if at all.
Center of the large polar high will be west of SE TX on Monday night and expect weak N winds to continue. Given the very dry air mass in place with dewpoints forecasted well into the 20’s, sub-freezing temperatures can be expected for nearly all areas except within the 610 loop (urban heat island) and right along the coast. Many areas will see freezing temperatures for 3-6 hours and a freezing warning will be required for most counties even those that have already had a freeze due to the recent warmth. Highs on Tuesday even under sunny skies will only reach the low to mid 50’s.
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning look to be near ideal for maximum cooling with the polar high nearly overhead and calm winds under crystal clear skies. Temperatures will plunge after sunset and many areas will fall below freezing for 4-8 hours. Could see mid 20’s up north to near 30 at the coast with mainly 29-32 for most areas. Pipes will not be an issue with this cold event, but sensitive tropical plants will likely sustain damage if not protected.
Slow warm up begins on Thursday with highs recovering into the 60’s and the 70’s by Friday under increasing chances of rainfall.
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