April - Ends on Mild Note

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Rip76
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Still coming down heavily.
unome
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24-hr Q2 gauge-adjusted radar QPE http://nmq.ou.edu/

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wxman57
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I ended up with 6.94"
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The clearing line is moving to the east and the sun is coming-out in full force. Could be an interesting day later.
mckinne63
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Does anyone know the totals for the various areas? I know my pool and ponds are filled to the brim.
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff: Note from srainhoutx:(Thanks for all the help and reports yesterday, gang! We were the 'go to' place across the weaher boards for imformation for this flooding event... ;) )

Very impressive rainfall event yesterday afternoon and evening over Harris and Fort Bend Counties resulting in significant and widespread flooding along with large amounts of hail. Rainfall amounts averaged 3-5 inches west and south of a line from La Porte to Pasadena to downtown Houston to near Katy and 2-3.5 inches over much of Wharton County and extreme SW Montgomery County. However, not all saw rain and that was very clear in Harris County where BUSH IAH picked up .26 of an inch yesterday while Hobby Airport recorded 6.05 inches (just missing the daily rainfall record of 6.20 inches in 1972).

Air mass over the region has been worked over by storms from yesterday and MCS progressing off the middle TX coast into the NW Gulf overnight. Weak diffuse frontal boundary located across SE TX currently with a weak wind shift noted across the northern ½ of the region. Models prog another short wave to move out of MX this afternoon and with surface heating over the area this morning (if clouds scatter out) the air mass will begin to recover. Moisture return is aimed at the coastal bend first and then into the Matagorda Bay region by this afternoon as SE winds return in response to lower pressures to our NW and the approach of the next short wave. Feel that the air mass will take time to recover locally and do not expect any activity until midafternoon. Short wave crossing the Rio Grande will likely develop severe storms in MX which will cross the Rio Grande this evening and possibly develop into a MCS across SW/SC TX and move toward S TX and the coastal bend similar to last night.

It should be noted that meso scale influences are in full control of the weather pattern with several short wave disturbances forecast to ripple through a favorable divergent flow aloft over the next 24-36 hours. Any one of these disturbances could set things off, but the limiting factor is starting to be the depletion of rich Gulf moisture. Will need to watch trends closely this afternoon for storm development.

As far as severe weather goes, storms will be capable of some hail and gusty winds, but for the most part do not expect widespread severe weather. Severe chances may increase overnight for the coastal bend region into Matagorda Bay if any MCS comes out of SW TX toward the coast….and this would likely be a severe wind threat.

As for rainfall, moisture levels have decreased since yesterday with PWS down from 1.7 inches to around 1.3-1.5 inches. Still plenty of moisture to produce heavy rainfall especially where any cell training or slow storm motion is found. There are numerous boundaries across the area and any one could become the focus for storms and heavy rainfall today-Monday. If heavy rains fall on areas hard hit on Saturday additional flooding would be likely as grounds are saturated in those areas. Most other areas are still in significant drought and could stand 2-3 inches of rainfall before getting into trouble. Do not think the hourly rainfall rates which were pushing 4.5-5.0 inches yesterday will be common today (see attached spreadsheet) for incredible short term rates on Saturday.

Extended:

Moisture levels drop off more by Tuesday with only isolated chances for storms in the heat of the today. Powerful late season cold front looks to arrive Thursday or Friday with another blast of very cold air for this time of year. Record lows look possible next Saturday with lows in the 40’s as the upper pattern becomes blocky with NW flow aloft looking likely over TX pushing surges of cold air southward.

Radar Rainfall Estimates:
04282013 Jeff image001.png
04282013 Jeff image002.png
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Portastorm
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Checking in after not being on for awhile ... crazy work schedule. So what's this I hear about y'all (SE Texas) having a little bit of rain yesterday?! ;)

See what you can do about pushing that to your west about 150-200 miles. We could use a few inches over here!

Hope everyone is safe and dried out somewhat!
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wxman57 wrote:Latest (12Z) NAM has minimal precip for Houston this weekend. Heavier precip stays well to our north.
(12Z) NAM was wrong, big time.
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C2G wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Latest (12Z) NAM has minimal precip for Houston this weekend. Heavier precip stays well to our north.
(12Z) NAM was wrong, big time.
Shows how hard MCS's are to forecast and how challenging mesoscale can be to get right.
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Paul Robison

[quote="srainhoutx"]
Extended:

Moisture levels drop off more by Tuesday with only isolated chances for storms in the heat of the today. Powerful late season cold front looks to arrive Thursday or Friday with another blast of very cold air for this time of year. Record lows look possible next Saturday with lows in the 40’s as the upper pattern becomes blocky with NW flow aloft looking likely over TX pushing surges of cold air southward.


What are the prospects for severe weather on Thursday or Friday?
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Paul Robison wrote:
srainhoutx wrote: Extended:

Moisture levels drop off more by Tuesday with only isolated chances for storms in the heat of the today. Powerful late season cold front looks to arrive Thursday or Friday with another blast of very cold air for this time of year. Record lows look possible next Saturday with lows in the 40’s as the upper pattern becomes blocky with NW flow aloft looking likely over TX pushing surges of cold air southward.


What are the prospects for severe weather on Thursday or Friday?
Better chance up north most likely but looks like a line could come through the area. It really depends on where the warm sector sets up and the progression of the mid level trough.
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strainhout : "Better chance up north most likely but looks like a line (of storms) could come through the area. It really depends on where the warm sector sets up and the progression of the mid level trough."

HGX may not agree with you strainhoutx:

THE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT TIMED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
STILL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF VERY COLD AND DRY AIR BACKING IT. MODEST
POPS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL LIFT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN/MIST/FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE CERTAINLY FELT FROM LATE THURSDAY ON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL HAVE
INTERIOR MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...COASTAL LOWER-MIDDLE 50S. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CLEAR OUT NICELY...ALBEIT COOL WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS REGULATING AFTERNOON WARMTH TO THE ONLY
THE MEAN MIDDLE 60S. NEXT WEEKEND WARMS UP QUICKLY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...COOL MORNINGS IN THE LOW-MID 50S TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE AVERAGE EARLY AFTERNOON MID-UPPER 70S. SO...BARRING NO SURPRISES
..THE COLD FROPA COMES THROUGH RELATIVELY EARLY ENOUGH IN THE WEEK
TO SPARE MANY WEEKEND PLANS AS A GORGEOUS SPRING PATTERN RETURNS.
31


Note: Warm sector sets up in Houston, if they're right! Any questions?
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Paul Robison wrote:strainhout : "Better chance up north most likely but looks like a line (of storms) could come through the area. It really depends on where the warm sector sets up and the progression of the mid level trough."

HGX may not agree with you strainhoutx:

THE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT TIMED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
STILL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF VERY COLD AND DRY AIR BACKING IT. MODEST
POPS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL LIFT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN/MIST/FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE CERTAINLY FELT FROM LATE THURSDAY ON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL HAVE
INTERIOR MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...COASTAL LOWER-MIDDLE 50S. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CLEAR OUT NICELY...ALBEIT COOL WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS REGULATING AFTERNOON WARMTH TO THE ONLY
THE MEAN MIDDLE 60S. NEXT WEEKEND WARMS UP QUICKLY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...COOL MORNINGS IN THE LOW-MID 50S TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE AVERAGE EARLY AFTERNOON MID-UPPER 70S. SO...BARRING NO SURPRISES
..THE COLD FROPA COMES THROUGH RELATIVELY EARLY ENOUGH IN THE WEEK
TO SPARE MANY WEEKEND PLANS AS A GORGEOUS SPRING PATTERN RETURNS.
31


Note: Warm sector sets up in Houston, if they're right! Any questions?
That was actually me who posted that but a lot more goes into severe weather than the warm sector. Location of the lifting mechanism, capping issues and shear are some of the few factors that create severe weather. As of now (as mentioned by HGX) that does not look like the biggest issue but things can change.
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Showers and storms are developing to our SW where a bit better moisture is in place and convective temps have been reached. This area of showers and storms may move a bit closer to Brazoria and Galveston Counties this afternoon. Also of note is a tornado has been reported NNE of Corpus by law enforcement.


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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
227 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXC239-291936-
/O.EXP.KHGX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-130429T1930Z/
JACKSON TX-
227 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
237 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXZ210-226-227-235>237-292015-
JACKSON TX-MATAGORDA TX-FORT BEND TX-BRAZORIA TX-COLORADO TX-
WHARTON TX-
237 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
EAST OF BOLING-IAGO TO EL CAMPO TO 10 MILES NORTH OF GANADO...AND
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...WHARTON...NEEDVILLE...BOLING-IAGO AND KENDLETON.

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srainhoutx
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXC239-292245-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0020.130429T1950Z-130429T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JACKSON TX-
250 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL CAUSE
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 3.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
EDNA AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59.
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXZ210-226-227-292100-
FORT BEND TX-COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-
324 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 318 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SPEAKS TO 12 MILES NORTH OF EL CAMPO TO WHARTON...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS...AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHARTON...EAGLE LAKE...EAST BERNARD...AND KENDLETON.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Just hailed something awful here in San Marcos. Nothing huge, but dime size hail for a straight 15 or so minutes. Wow. Only storm on I-35 between San Antonio and Austin.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXZ210>212-226-292145-
COLORADO TX-AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-WHARTON TX-
404 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 400 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
WEST OF WALLIS TO EAGLE LAKE TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEALY...COLUMBUS...BELLVILLE...EAGLE LAKE...AND SAN FELIPE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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