June: Record June High Temps Across Texas!

[jasons2k]

Nothing here yesterday. Only .29" so far today and it's winding down. I would love to see some more tropical moisture work this way - we'll see.

[djjordan]

My lawn is pretty happy today. Been getting just enough rain each time to keep the soil moisture going. Hopefully we can keep up these episodes of rainfall going this summer.

[Ptarmigan]

why is everyone talking about this so called ridge? why do these ridges bring so much heat and misery and lack of rainfall to houston in summer? with all the humidity and the heat, storms should happen every day. even in the desert sw, they can get more rain in summer than houston does. whats the deal with these cockroach ridges?

The cockroach ridge is a upper level ridge that is persistent in nature. The heat wave is caused by a upper level trough off the West Coast and is driving up hot and dry air from Mexican desert. Once it moves east, the heat should lessen and draw up moisture from Gulf of Mexico.

[kayci]

Rain today!!! = tomatoes happy, yard happy, water bill happy, I'm happy!!!! Now, can I please have a little like this EVERY day????

[srainhoutx]

Here is a bit of a Regional roundup snapshot from NWS San Antonio/Austin. There is still a shear axis (weakness) evident along the Coastal Counties and that feature may linger the next day or two. The reliable global models are still indicating an easterly wave (tropical disturbance) will enter the NW Caribbean late this coming weekend into early next week and generally move W to WNW across the Western Gulf. Deep S Texas and Mexico and Coastal Counties may benefit from the increased tropical moisture by mid next week. We will see.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
415 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGH CONTRAST
BETWEEN STABLE AND DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE SW-NE ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS MAY BE HARD TO DISPLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM OVER MAINLY THE
COASTAL BEND COUNTIES. HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE ENOUGH COASTAL CONVECTION TO ENHANCE A SEA-BREEZE
TODAY AND TUESDAY...SO A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NW INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL PRAIRIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS COUNTIES EACH
DAY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE SW INTO MEXICO WHILE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
WOBBLING NATURE OF THE PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE SHEAR AXIS
COULD RESULT IN SUPRISE CONVECTION FORMING FARTHER INLAND TOWARD
I-35...BUT WILL KEEP WITH THE DRIER...MORE CONSISTENT FORECAST OF
THE GFS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT
SHOULD HOLD BACK THE WARMING TREND SOME BUT A FEW LOCATIONS OF
CENTRAL TX COULD APPROACH THE MID 90S TODAY OR TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NAM/ECMWF MODEL TRENDS ARE WETTER
AND COOLER FOR SOUTH TX...IN REACTION TO THE MOIST TROPICAL UPPER
TROUGH FEATURE ROTATING WEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES A MUCH LOWER SHIFT IN TEMPERATURES AND EXPANDS
THE INFLUENCE DEEP INTO CENTRAL TX AND INCREASES POPS. WHILE THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM AND 09/18Z DGEX RUNS SHOW A
SUPPORT FOR THIS TREND...THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE
GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT NOD THE MOISTURE
INFLUENCES TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS FEATURE
OBVIOUSLY PRESENT SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES...BUT AM
HESITANT TO MAKE DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE AND POP SWINGS BASED ON A
SHORT-TERM TREND. IF THE RECENT DGEX/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WIN
OUT...THERE COULD BE MORE BENEFICIAL RAINS TO IMPACT WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE UPPER RIDGE COULD BE WEAKENED SOME ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO WORK CLOSER TO TRIPLE DIGITS FOR CENTRAL TX AS EARLY
AS THIS WEEKEND.

ANOTHER FEATURE WORTH NOTING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PWAT VALUES...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL WAVE...HEADING TOWARD THE SWRN
GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Fairly active past couple of days across the area with a trough axis moving slowly from east to west across E TX interacting with tropical moisture to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms….especially on Sunday.

Trough/shear axis this morning has progressed closer to the coast and there is no incoming short wave/MCS from N TX to help aid in lift of the local air mass this morning. Moisture is still plentiful south of I-10 and expect surface heating and the inland moving seabreeze boundary to help fire off showers and thunderstorms by late morning along the coast and early afternoon along and S of I-10. Not sure there will be much activity inland of I-10 this afternoon as drier air mass and influences from building upper level ridging will be felt in this area. High resolution short term models which did well yesterday show afternoon scattered activity mainly south of I-10 today. Could see a few strong storms much like on Sunday with localized gusty winds being the main threat along with excessive short term rainfall.

May see another round of storms along the seabreeze on Tuesday before the upper ridge attempts to take hold. Models are not in great agreement on the placement of the ridge axis nor its southern flank and how much influence the ridge will have over the area toward the end of the week. Models are now suggesting a little bit more of a weakness in the ridge and possibly the area falling on the southern fringes of the high suggesting at least the potential for isolated seabreeze storms into the latter part of the week. I am not overly confident in post Wednesday rain chances, but it is something to keep an eye on as deeper tropical moisture will not be that far away. As for the heat, will temper back highs some as recent rains have helped to wet the ground and do not think many areas will reach 100 this week as previously thought. Best chance for areas to reach 100 will be over our N and NW counties closet to the ridge axis.

[srainhoutx]

Sea breeze kicking in...

[jasons2k]

Looking south, I see some fresh crisp clouds trying to build. May not be 100 percent dead yet.

[mckinne63]

Not a drop at my house in Stafford. But checking the transstar cameras when I got home from work, looks they got some just a few miles down the road.

[Texas Pirate]

We had a spit and a clap of thunder by the bay today.

[srainhoutx]

A shear axis/inverted trough is still somewhat active along the Coastal Counties of Texas this morning. Sea breeze/bay breeze isolated showers/storms are again possible today mostly S of I-10. Further S and W pw's are still near the 2 inch mark and areas in the Valley up to about San Antonio to Matagorda Bay may see some isolated 1-2 inch amounts in heavier storms. There are indications that the so called heat ridge will begin to weaken by early next week with increasing deep tropical moisture moving into the Western Gulf. Those with travel plans to the Chicago area tomorrow may need to expect travel delays as strong severe storms develop and translate E toward the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. There may be some potential for a derecho ( large line of severe storms with damaging winds) developing causing wide spread impacts from the Mid West to the Mid Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday. Mid to upper 90's appear likely across a large area of the Lone Star State away from the Coast with some areas reaching the century mark into the weekend for daytime highs. Locally we have a fairly typical summertime pattern ahead with some possible increasing moisture next week as a tropical disturbance develops in the NW Caribbean and moves generally W to WNW towards Mexico and the S Texas Coast.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical showers moving across NW Harris County at this hour.

[Rip76]

Man there's nothing better than towering tropical clouds..
Good look out there right now.

[robertscottlazar]

just some towering clouds here in santa fe. i thought i heard thunder but i then realized it was the baked bean chili that i ate for dinner last night.

[kayci]

Storms in Channelview right now... nice! Too bad they missed my place in Texas City..

[Rip76]

Yes, I work in Channelview as well.

[Texas Pirate]

So far, just another spit and thunder clap near the bay...what am I doing wrong?

[kayci]

So far, just another spit and thunder clap near the bay...what am I doing wrong?

The wrong dance

[srainhoutx]

The HRRR has done rather well today in suggesting more showers/storms than originally forecast.

[jasons2k]

Totally dumped on us here at the office near the mall. Across the freeway at the house, looks like just a few.drops again.