OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

[srainhoutx]

EWX reports evacuations underway in the Heartwood subdivision along Williamson Creek.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
940 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-AUSTIN TX-JACKSON TX-WALLER TX-
940 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 937 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE INCH HAS FALLEN WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD DEVELOP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WHILE STORMS MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SAME AREA AS WELL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF MORE THAN TWO INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND ROADS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...NADA...ROCK ISLAND...EGYPT...
GARWOOD...SHERIDAN AND ALTAIR.

[srainhoutx]

EPAC Tropical Storm Octave continues to spread tropical moisture across Mexico and Texas. This tropical system will continue to head N and turn NE over the next several days before being picked up by a strong Western trough disturbance and merging with a very slow moving frontal boundary expected to begin moving into Texas on Tuesday and not reach the Coast until Thursday.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm is reporting 11 inches of rain overnight and still pouring. Worrisome to see multiple boundaries across the Region and low convective temps. I'm also worried that the Tuesday - Thursday time frame will bring additional flooding chances as EPAC TD15E turns NE and merges with a creeping frontal boundary across Central and SE Texas. Stay safe out there!

Thanks for relaying the report earlier this morning, srain. Yes, we've had about 11.28 inches here in SW Austin. The LCRA rain gauge at Barton Creek/Hwy 360 (about 2 miles north of me) reports over 12 inches. These totals are since 10 pm last night when the rain began. Just an amazing event to occur namely in southwest through south Austin. Lots of flooding ongoing with dry creek beds turned into raging rivers. Retention ponds in my area are near capacity.

We all wanted the rain but this drinking from a fire hose stuff is a little much!

[Rip76]

EPAC Tropical Storm Octave continues to spread tropical moisture across Mexico and Texas. This tropical system will continue to head N and turn NE over the next several days before being picked up by a strong Western trough disturbance and merging with a very slow moving frontal boundary expected to begin moving into Texas on Tuesday and not reach the Coast until Thursday.

Will this add to the rainfall totals later in the week?

[srainhoutx]

Stay safe Central Texas neighbors. As Portastorm mentioned, that fire hose of tropical moisture is very evident on water vapor imagery and at this time there doesn't appear to be an end in sight until maybe Thursday if then. The operational and meso models have done a terrible job depicting this flood potential. Most of the guidance has under estimated the amount of rainfall generated and I see no reason why that trend will not continue until a stronger front moves in a clears all this mess out. There are even some suggestions this very wet pattern will continue into next weekend.

[Rip76]

I think I got my answer.

[srainhoutx]

A mesoscale convective system is developing to the W and SW of the Houston Metro at this time. This system is associated with a short wave upper air disturbance moving very slowly W to E and should increase in areal coverage for locations S of I-10 as convective temps are met. I wouldn't be surprised to see rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour across the Region today.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1011 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-COLORADO-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...HEMPSTEAD...LAKE JACKSON...MISSOURI CITY...
PALACIOS...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...WEIMAR...WHARTON
1011 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY ARE EXPECTED.

* FLASH FLOODING FROM THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE CLOSED SEVERAL ROADS IN
AUSTIN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

[Karen]

Will this rain come down our way? Or is it going to stay north of the I-10 area? I don't know the Austin area well will the run off in the Austin area help Lake Travis? So said to see the water levels so low.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch has been issued until 1000pm tonight for our western Counties…mainly west of I-45.

Flash flood event continues to unfold over Austin and Waller Counties this morning with radar estimates over 8.0 inches now over southern and central Austin County. Law enforcement is reporting extensive flooding across Austin County with numerous roads closed and impassable (including HWY 36 at HWY 90). Outflow boundary which has focused this excessive rainfall continues to sag southward with new slow moving thunderstorms developing over Wharton, Jackson, and Colorado Counties. High resolution meso models suggest the axis of flooding rainfall will drift SSW into Wharton, Matagorda, Colorado, Jackson, Calhoun, and Victoria Counties early this afternoon as lift from a short wave over SW TX arrives into the area.

Given the saturated air mass with deep tropical moisture in place from both the Gulf and TS Octave in the EPAC, excessive rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible. Overnight rainfall rates near Austin approached 5 inches in an hour.

Significant rises on area creeks and rivers are likely given the rainfall that has fallen and the expected additional rainfall especially on the upper San Bernard River.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/13/13 1501Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1445Z RUMINSKI
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...EVOLUTION OF HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE OVER TX SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE OVER SRN HLF BEING REINFORCED WITH SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE
GULF. MID/UPR LEVELS ALSO BEING MOISTENED BY SWRLY FLOW WHICH IS TAPPING
MOISTURE FROM TS OCTAVE. SUTROPICAL JET CUTTING ACRS NRN TX IS LEAVING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX IN FAVORABLE RRQ FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
.
CLOUD TOP TEMPS HAVE WARMED MARKEDLY WITH MAIN MCS FROM OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST ACTIVE CNVTN CURRENTLY ON PERIPHERY IN BROAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON
THE SRN AND WRN EDGES OF COMPLEX. SRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW..ALG ROUGHLY
A KPSX TO KCOT AXIS..IS RUNNING INTO SSE FLOW FOR ENHANCED SFC MOISTURE
CONV. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL REMAIN AN ACTIVE AREA FOR ADL HEAVY RAINFALL
THRU THE MRNG AS GOES DERIVED LI'S AND PW'S CONT TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
POOLED OVER TH AREA (PW AOA 2" AND SFC TD'S IN M70S) WITH LI'S ARND
-5. OF MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS CNVTN OVER ZAVALA AND VCNTY WHERE CNVTN
HAS BEEN INCRG (RAPIDLY COOLING CLD TOP TEMPS) AND BACK EDGE OVER KINNEY
HAS BEEN NRLY STNRY. SLOW MVMNT AND OUTFLOW INTERACTION COULD QUICKLY
LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4" IN 1-2 HRS.
.
CNVTN OVER CONCHO AND TOM GREEN AND VCNTY IS ON WRN PERIPHERY OF OUTFLOW
FROM OVERNIGHT MCS AND SEEMS TO BE ALIGNING WITH MID/UPR FLOW. MOISTURE
NOT QUITE AS DEEP HERE (SFC TD'S IN M60S AND PW'S ARND 1.75") BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT
FROM RRQ JET PLACEMENT AS NOTED ABV.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-1900Z...MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ALG E/W AXIS FROM NR KDLF TO
KBYY WITH GREATEST CONCERN NR THE E AND W EDGE. 2.0" TO 2.5"/HR RAINFALL
RATES PSBL. NOT AS CONFIDENT IN CNVTN FURTHER N INVOF TOM GREEN DUE TO
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM. RAINFALL RATES THIS AREA EXPECTED
TO BE LESS BUT STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1.0" TO 1.5"/HR.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1123 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 1117 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. IN EXCESS OF SEVEN INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS
OCCURRING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SEALY...EAGLE LAKE...NADA...EGYPT...ALTAIR AND GARWOOD.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE ROADS IN PARTS OF AUSTIN AND
COLORADO COUNTIES. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

[Portastorm]

The mid-morning AFD out of EWX affirms srainhoutx's comments about "more on the way."

-------------
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1107 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION INITIATED ALONG THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINS OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REGION LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AS CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN PLATEAU REDEVELOPS AND
STEERING CURRENTS GUIDE THE STORMS NORTHEAST. CURRENT THINKING IS
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER OUR REGION WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS STILL IN FLOOD...WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE WATCH IN TIME
UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY AND ADD MAVERICK ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES TO
THE WATCH ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE

[srainhoutx]

Worrisome to see cooling cloud tops expanding across the Edwards Plateau and generally heading E. Additional flooding issues for Central and SE Texas as the day wears on.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED
A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE...

COLORADO RIVER...ONION CREEK

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

RIVER STAGE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED RAINFALL ALONG WITH
PREDICTED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES
FROM FORECAST VALUES...FORECAST RIVER STAGES WILL VARY.

DO NOT DRIVE AUTOMOBILES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...18 INCHES
OF WATER OR LESS CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES...INCLUDING TRUCKS.

IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS OR COME UPON A FLOODED ROADWAY...REMEMBER
TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EWX.

&&

TXC453-141105-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-131014T1457Z/
/ATIT2.3.ER.131013T1135Z.131013T1800Z.131014T0257Z.NO/
1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE ONION CREEK AT ONION CK HWY 183.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 29.2 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOODING THREATENS A MOBILE HOME PARK ABOVE
WILLIAM CANNON DRIVE. MANY ROADS AND BRIDGES ARE FLOODED AND VERY DANGEROUS.
FLOW IS WELL INTO THE FLOOD PLAIN.

$$

TXC021-141105-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0025.131014T1731Z-131015T0651Z/
/BRTT2.1.ER.131014T1731Z.131014T1800Z.131014T1851Z.NO/
1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE COLORADO RIVER AT BASTROP.
* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
CANCELLED.
* AT 11:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 23.4 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES LOWEST AREAS OF THE
FLOOD PLAIN. SECONDARY ROADS AND LOW BRIDGES ARE FLOODED.

$$

TXC149-141104-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0026.131015T1715Z-131016T0636Z/
/LGRT2.1.ER.131015T1715Z.131015T1800Z.131015T1836Z.NO/
1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE COLORADO RIVER ABOVE LAGRANGE.
* FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
CANCELLED.
* AT 11:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 26.2 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING COVERS LOW AREAS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. LOWEST ROADS AND BRIDGES ARE FLOODED.

$$

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS:
BF FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION STG STG STG DAY TIME MON TUE WED THU FRI

COLORADO RIVER
ONION CK HWY 18 15 17 26.7 SUN 11 AM 8.6 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.3
BASTROP 14 23 2.6 SUN 12 PM 18.3 12.8 6.0 4.2 3.6
LAGRANGE 19 26 4.0 SUN 11 AM 6.3 24.6 15.2 8.5 6.7

$$

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:.

Excessive rainfall of 6-8 inches over the headwaters of the San Bernard River will lead to flooding in Austin, Fort Bend, and Wharton Counties.

Significant rainfall on the upper San Bernard River basin will lead to a major rise in the river tonight into Monday and Tuesday.

At East Bernard:

Current Stage: 6.1 ft

Flood Stage: 17.0ft

Forecast: River will began a rapid rise this evening and crest near 19.0-19.5 ft Tuesday afternoon. Low land flooding is expected along the channel from the headwaters to below I-10 into Fort Bend and Wharton Counties.

Additional heavy rainfall is possible by the middle of the week and this could slow recessions or result in additional rises.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0277
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 132010Z - 140210Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE JUST NORTH OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT INTO THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BETWEEN LRD AND COT...EXTENDING EAST TOWARD MATAGORDA
BAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO MOVEMENT SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE THE EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH REPORTS OF 6-10+ INCHES OF RAIN PER
RECENT LSR REPORTS NEAR CRYSTAL CITY. VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES AVERAGING 1-2 IN/HR SINCE ABOUT 12Z HAVE OCCURRED...COURTESY
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.00-2.25 IN PER RECENT
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND ADDED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNWIND OF
T.S. OCTAVE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. 1000-3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE CONTINUES TO BE
PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTH
TEXAS...AIDED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.


WITH 850 MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 20-30 KTS PER KDFX VAD WIND
PROFILE...AND THE RAP CONTINUING TO SHOW THIS AS BEING UNCHANGED
THROUGH 00Z...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING...AND PERHAPS SHIFTING EAST A BIT WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE THREAT AREA MAY IMPEDE BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN AND CONVECTIVE RAINS FARTHER NORTH AT LEAST IN THE SHORT
TERM...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
SLIDING EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO VEER TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT CONTINUED RAINFALL
RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS WITH CONTINUED RUNOFF
ISSUES.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Some impressive rainfall amounts in the last 24 hours ending at 700am this morning:

CoCoRaHS Reports:

.07 SE Sunset Valley: 11.33

8.5 SW Austin: 11.26

2.8 SE Rollingwood: 10.84

4.1 SW Austin: 10.50

8.2 WSW Austin: 10.36

1.9 NNE Tanglewood Forest: 9.45

5.6 WSW Austin: 8.97

1 WSW Oak Hill: 9.80

10.7 S Hempstead: 9.04

2.9 ESE Bryan: 4.56

3.2 SE College Station: 5.85

3.5 NNW Bryan: 3.26

2.0 NE College Station: 4.56

9.6 N Hockley: 3.65

1.2 NNW Sealy: 7.25

3.8 N Cat Springs: 3.12

.3 WNW Sealy: 3.63

Brenham: 2.92

Chappell Hill: 2.94

Washington: 3.84

Rainfall amounts over SW TX this afternoon:

Carrizo Springs: 7.03 (since 1000am)

Crystal City: 10.00 (in 8 hours)

Big Wells: 7.10 (in less than 6 hours)

5 SSW Crystal City: 9.00 (in 6 hours)

Note: the isolated nature of the heavy rainfall just South of Austin on the map below. Rains north of Lake Travis have result in about 1 foot of rise on the lake today (about 8,100 acre feet of inflow since 800am Saturday to noon Sunday). This is more water that has gone into the lakes in just over 24 hours than over the last 2 months. At this moment it would take almost 1.3 million acre feet of additional flow to fill the highland lakes to full capacity a testament to the magnitude of the long term drought.

Travis County CoCoRaHS Observer Reports:

[texoz]

If some of that Austin rain had been about 100 miles NW, it would have put a big dent in the lake levels.

Any thoughts on the developing storms east of Midland/Odessa?