December: New Years Eve Outlook

[Belmer]

Are those temps highs or lows.

They would be lows. That graphic particularly shows NEXT Wednesday 12Z (6am) December 11th.

[Andrew]

Are those temps highs or lows.

They would be lows. That graphic particularly shows NEXT Wednesday 12Z (6am) December 11th.

That was the euro graphic FYI and this second blast of cold air probably would be mainly dry. Very little moisture to work with probably.

[skidog40]

tomorrow night we will start seeing some different forecasts

[Heat Miser]

Iced over roads are no fun, especially in this area.

[skidog40]

Just for weather observing, Intellicast has a very good interactive map, you can choose what you want to see on map.

[Andrew]

Up north:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
902 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE TO CLEBURNE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AND SHOULD TURN TO FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHEN
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE AFFECTED
FIRST BY THE FREEZING RAIN...BUT ROADS MAY ALSO BECOME ICY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE MAY ALSO BRING
DOWN POWER LINES AND TREES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 INCH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH COULD PROLONG TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO ICE.

TXZ094-095-104>107-118>120-130>133-141>144-041130-
/O.EXA.KFWD.WS.A.0002.131206T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
FANNIN-LAMAR-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BONHAM...PARIS...PLANO...GREENVILLE...
COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...COMANCHE...
DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS
902 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK DUE TO
ICE.

* OTHER POSSIBLE IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BRING DOWN TREES
AND POWER LINES...AND COULD CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT MINOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE STORM SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

[cristina6871]

Waited through the hot hot summer just so I could get excited about the cold.....first time in about a year that we've had cold weather this early......my mom says the cold air can be saved till Christmas......it must be cold on Christmas. As for me, bring it on. As for this weekend, just how COLD will it get. And what about the next week - I have a party coming up.

[TexasBreeze]

Dallas FWD has been putting out good reads abou winter weather lately and tonight's update is no different.

Dallas/Fort Worth:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=FWDAFDFWD

[TxJohn]

So Dr. Jim from FOX just ruled out any snow/winter precip. Tim Heller from ABC ruled out winter precip....no mention of anything wintry from Local 2.......waiting for KHOU's weather forecast at 10


And these forecasters keep mentioning "Super cold" coming like I saw on FOX tonight....since when is 36 degrees SUPER cold? Lmao...is this a joke?

[TxJohn]

David Paul said the front is moving ahead of schedule...and will be pushing past Dallas by tomorrow evening.....does this change things a lot or no?

David Paul also has temps below 35 this week...as low as 33 with 40% chance of precip. He also says no winter precip likely.

[Andrew]

David Paul said the front is moving ahead of schedule...and will be pushing past Dallas by tomorrow evening.....does this change things a lot or no?

David Paul also has temps below 35 this week...as low as 33 with 40% chance of precip. He also says no winter precip likely.

It definitely makes things more complicated for areas north of Houston as DFW is now looking at a possible major ice storm. QPF values have increased for areas across north Texas and it looks like a lot of it will fall as Freezing rain. I suspect Discussions later tonight into tomorrow will reflect that. Closer to home models are already on the border of freezing around the northern counties (lows around 34) and any faster movement could knock down those temperatures some. As I mentioned last night this temperature gradient will be pretty steep in nature and is one of the leading reasons why this forecast is so hard to make. The front is moving faster than the models have predicted and this was to be expected. How much faster it moves through than predicted by the models will be key for how far south that Freezing Rain line gets.

[TxJohn]

Local 2 just said there's a chance of winter precip going into the weekend. I only caught the end of Frank's forecast....hmmmm

[Kludge]

tomorrow night we will start seeing some different forecasts

Yes. Different from today, but the same as yesterday. We don't take cash...you'll have to buy tickets for this coaster.

[TxJohn]

Latest GFS run has freezing rain around my area in NW Harris County on Monday at 3pm ....

[Kludge]

Latest GFS run has freezing rain around my area in NW Harris County on Monday at 3pm ....

My, but you've been busy tonight.

I was too when I first joined this board, but soon found that I learned more by looking at the screen, and less at the keyboard.

I don't mean to be rude, but you're causing me to wear out my scroll wheel as I seek to find some real knowledge.

Welcome to the Board.

[TxJohn]

Latest GFS run has freezing rain around my area in NW Harris County on Monday at 3pm ....

My, but you've been busy tonight.

I was too when I first joined this board, but soon found that I learned more by looking at the screen, and less at the keyboard.

I don't mean to be rude, but you're causing me to wear out my scroll wheel as I seek to find some real knowledge.

Welcome to the Board.

Okay

[tireman4]

Our finals week at HCC is December 9-13, so it should mirror UT and A&M.

[tireman4]

HGX Morning AFD:

XUS64 KHGX 041131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
517 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THIS
COMING WEEK. THE MAIN THEMES WILL BE TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEEKEND FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TERM...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS RECENT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE LOWER-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. RELATIVELY HIGHER MARITIME DEW POINTS IN THE AVERAGE UPPER
60S OVER COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
INTERIOR FOG WILL BE AREAWIDE IN COVERAGE... HIGH BASED PACIFIC
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF THICKER CIRRUS AND NEAR 5 KNOT SOUTHERLIES
WILL INHIBIT DENSE FOG. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
OVERNIGHT FOG...ALTHOUGH CALM CONDITIONS AND BREAKS IN THE CI DECK
MAY HAVE VARIOUS COMMUNITIES FALLING TO BELOW 1 SM IN VISIBILITY.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY EARLY DECEMBER STANDARDS...MORE LATE SPRING-LIKE
WEATHER IN LATE AUTUMN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. FOGGY...MOIST
AND MILD MORNINGS IN THE 60S WILL WARM INTO THE MEAN UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE...
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. A SHALLOW...COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW A
THURSDAY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS BOUNDARY IS TIMED PASS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING THE CITY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC-925MB FRONT...THE NAM STALLING IT NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH
THE GFS/ECMWF SLOWLY PUSHING IT OFF INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY STEADY...OR FALLING TEMPS...THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO THIS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...OVERCAST AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE REGION WILL FALL UNDER THE
BEST UPPER FORCING OF THE JET`S RRQ. AS OF NOW...DUE TO THE WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THIS SHALLOW COOL DOME (EFFICIENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE UPON THE THETA SURFACE)...PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE.

THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN COUNTY WINTER WEATHER FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING (MAYBE SUNDAY MORNING?). ICE PELLET
FORMATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COLDER SURFACE EARLY SUNDAY
PROMOTING MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE SCENARIO. THE COLD AIR
MASS GETS A REINFORCING COLD SHOT FRIDAY AND...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE NEAR-SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EITHER NORTHERN CWA ICE PELLETS (IF SUB FREEZING LAYER IS
DEEP ENOUGH) OR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT JET STREAK.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE KICKS IN SATURDAY...SUPPORTING MODEST LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-900MB WITH A VERY SHALLOW SUB-
FREEZING LAYER FROM AROUND 900MB TO THE SURFACE. WITHOUT CRITICAL
THICKNESS VALUES TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE
FOR FROZEN PRECIP WILL REMAIN SLIGHT... THIS FACT MAY BE TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME AND NOT ALLOW FOR SMALL DROPLET FREEZING. ANOTHER WRENCH
COULD BE THE AMOUNT (OR LACK THEREOF) OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. FRIDAY
NIGHT`S AIR MASS MAY END UP NOT BEING AS DRY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...AND WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SCANERIO...LIQUID
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIKELY WITH THAT SLIGHT RISK OF WET-BULBING THE
LOWER COLUMN OUT BELOW-FREEZING AND ULTIMATELY GENERATING A WINTRY MIX. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDE RANGE OF CIGS & VISBYS ACROSS THE AREA BUT GENERAL
TREND IS DOWNWARD TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STEEP LLVL INVERSION WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER IT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE AMENDED SOME TAFS TO A MORE
PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK WITH A DELAYED RISE TO MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
LATE MORNING & EARLY AFTN...AND MIGHT DO THE REMAINDER AS WELL FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN TRANSITION TO IFR LATER THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME DENSE SEA FOG ROLLING BACK IN TOWARD
SUNSET AT THE COAST. 47

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST LATE THURS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 47

[srainhoutx]

6Z GFS offers some hope for mid week school cancellations AUS and CLL.


When do finals start at The University of Texas and at A&M? Cancelled class is always good, unless it delays leaving campus for the holidays.

Ed, it looks like that may need to be adjusted a bit further S into the SE Texas area as well. The jet stream does appear to have multiple short waves (upper air disturbances) riding S into the base of the trough when the cold surface air is firmly entremched mid next week. That impulse may lend to wintry precip as far S as the I-10 Corridor and possibly near HWY 59. We will see.

Meanwhile with the first boundary, it is running ahead of schedule and has clear the Amarillo forecast area. A second surge of much colder air should push the front further S later today into tomorrow. The RAP (rapid refresh guidance) should prove useful as well as the SPC SREF tools and the HRRR from this point forward. I'll edit the Topic to extend the time frame into next week for this Arctic Outbreak since it does appear we will see an extended period of well below normal temps that may last into Thursday/Friday of next week.

[djmike]

So Dr. Jim from FOX just ruled out any snow/winter precip. Tim Heller from ABC ruled out winter precip....no mention of anything wintry from Local 2.......waiting for KHOU's weather forecast at 10


And these forecasters keep mentioning "Super cold" coming like I saw on FOX tonight....since when is 36 degrees SUPER cold? Lmao...is this a joke?

******
I have to agree with TxJohn. The past week I keep reading and seeing graphics and maps about how SUPER cold this front and secondary front are supposed to be. Everywhere I have looked and read a 7 day forecast, the lowest temp reads 35 degrees! And thats here in Beaumont! Everyone keeps saying it will be colder than the last arctic front! Well, we got down to 26 here and still Im seeing a 10 degree warmer difference compared to last front. Highs this weekend and next week range from 42-47. Well, last weeks front we didnt get above 36! Also it's going to sleet in our northern counties, then theirs no possibility of sleet/freezing rain. Can someone here explain to me how this arctic front is supposed to be SUPER cold and COLDER than last front, because I certainly am not seeing it anywhere. I do understand cold weather is harder to predict, but if this front is not going to be colder or exciting, can we start mentioning that so that people dont start getting the wrong idea and can plan accordingly?