December: New Years Eve Outlook

[TxJohn]

See...this is why you don't hype the public up with "Dangerously and record challenging cold coming to Houston"

What's record breaking about 30 degree temp?

The headline tonight will be: "Houston escapes MAJOR Arctic blast..as of the latest model runs but keep your guard up though we're not looking to be dangerously cold it will get quite chilly"

Interviewing people downtown telling them it'll get down to the teens...hope they interview them again and tell them it might actually be 60+ degrees on Christmas.

Lmao.

[TxJohn]

Long time no post, but I've been lurking. Cant wait to watch the developments over the next week or two.

Models have been all over the place and I just think it was pretty foolish for the news stations (namely ch13) to even mention the idea of being in the teens this far out. Its very typical this time of year we see runs of 15-20 degrees in the 240+ hr range only to end up mid 30s once the models get a grip on the mass. Not to be a debby-downer but I want to see these kinds of runs a week out before jumping on board.

Channel 11 interviewed people last night during their 10pm newscast asking houstonians how they will deal with the teens coming around Christmas time. They even showed old footage of Mario Gomez from back in the day forecasting 20 degree weather with windchills in negative teens.

Didn't know channel 13 did the same thing.


Well the backlash these weathermen are about to get.

I thought it was a bit premature to run this in the media so early. At least wait till next week. Now what are they gonna say tonight? Houston we're safe!! No more teens...ots actually gonna be near 70 with coldest temp only reaching 30.

[Ptarmigan]

Yeah, I'm afraid so. There is no hope for warm air near Christmas...

Santa Claus is giving us cold air for Christmas.

[srainhoutx]

LOL... the 12Z GEFS (ensembles) and the NAEFS (ensembles) are still very chilly in the late next week time frame into the period beyond Christmas. I wouldn't trust the operational guidance with the amounts of heights or massive Gulf of Alaska Ridge at this extended range beyond 3-5 days. The ensembles are the better judgment of what may occur in my opinion.

[TxJohn]

Maybe I'm wrong but....

It seems like models are trending more north and east with this Arctic blast....

[srainhoutx]

About the NAEFS... Does it really help the GFS ensembles any to add ensemble members from the most poorly regarded global forecast model?

Actually the Canadian is verifying a bit better than the operational GFS over the past several weeks and since the NAEFS is a blend of the American and Canadian Ensembles, it has validity.

Edit to Add:

The 12Z Canadian Operational suggests the Arctic air mass will spill S along the lee side of the Rockies. That is exactly what we see with Arctic air masses as they 'drain' the shallow cold air straight to the Gulf of Mexico. Remember that our previous two Arctic air masses have left Florida and portions of the SE United States warm. I see no reason that this surge of very chilly air will do anything differently at this time.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Maybe I'm wrong but....

It seems like models are trending more north and east with this Arctic blast....

As of right now, yes, you are wrong, but I have a feeling you are paying more attention to the operational surface maps as opposed to the upper air pattern and teleconnections in the NE Pac.

I won't pay attention to the GFS until 5-6 days out. Canadian is doing a pretty bang up job lately.

[vci_guy2003]

I wonder what the models were saying two weeks before the 1989 outbreak...

I suspect David Paul will have plenty of egg on his face if his forecast busts.

Might it be in the 80s on Christmas.. I'll be in Galveston

[TxJohn]

I'm excitedly waiting for this evening's newscasts. It'll be quite funny.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm excitedly waiting for this evening's newscasts. It'll be quite funny.

We got another emotional one from model to model run. Is this Paul Robison redux?

Actually, tonight's forecast will probably say "there's a lot of uncertainty in regards to Christmas week, but we continue to be on lookout for an arctic intrustion...." or something like that.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Np PPV graphics yet, but 216 op Euro from the free ECMWF site, 0ºC 850 mb line not too far North of here, Northeast winds around a 1030 mb plus high centered over Kansas or Nebraska, can't say for sure the happy surface freezing line may not be South of here.

Broad but deep trough, positively tilted, with trough axis West of MBY.


Can't give up hope. Sure, SETX is like the Texans, Cowboys or Longhorns, so much promise, threat of severe storms, Winter precip and the whatnot, and usually disappointment and heartbreak. But if it snowed here like a ski resort, we wouldn't appreciate it. If we had an EF-5 tornado near Houston every third year, we'd get tired of severe weather.


Look at Nebraska firing Frank Solich after a 10 win season. Husker fans got spoiled. Maybe this will be like Mack Brown announcing his retirement tomorrow and the big UT bucks bringing Harbaugh back to college, and everyone gets what they want. We have a competent coach, Tyrone Swoopes, practically the love child of Vince Young and Johnny Football leading the offense, crushing Oklahoma, revenge on Baylor, BYU and Okie State and a Fiesta Bowl berth. No, I'm realistic, take at least two years before talking national title playoff. Again, we're not like Nebraska fans with unrealistic expectations. And the weather equivalent, snow for Christmas. Or at least sleet, which looks like snow in photos.

But the almost constant disappointment that is SETX weather, it is the forge that toughens us.

Thanks for that laugh.

With that said, Texas does have a lot more resources than Nebraska. I'd venture to say Nebraska will most likely not be a consistent national power ever again.

[TxJohn]

I'm excitedly waiting for this evening's newscasts. It'll be quite funny.

We got another emotional one from model to model run. Is this Paul Robison redux?

Actually, tonight's forecast will probably say "there's a lot of uncertainty in regards to Christmas week, but we continue to be on lookout for an arctic intrustion...." or something like that.

And the story goes on to say:
"Models are starting to trend away from the potential of dangerously cold Arctic air however. If this trend continues SE Texas may dodge the bullet....which is good news because we don't need any busted pipes and dangerously cold weather. But stay tuned as the models are having a hard time with this Arctic intrusion...we're not a 100% safe just yet ok folks *goes to green screen* "

[wxman57]

I don't think it's a bad thing that the news outlets are mentioning the potential for an extended period of sub-freezing temperatures across the local area the week of Christmas. Many people will be heading out of town late next week. They need to be made aware of the freeze threat so that they can take appropriate actions to prevent their pipes from busting and their homes being flooded.

Of course, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to just how cold it might get between the 22nd and 31st. Possibilities range from lows in the low teens and highs in the 20s to lows in the mid to upper 20s with highs in the 30s and 40s. There is certainly a chance that Houston's temps may remain below freezing for over 24 hours.

As to some of the models attempting to shunt the colder air off to the east - that's unlikely, and it's a common error with Arctic air in this time frame before possible impact. In almost all cases, the Arctic air plunges almost straight south lee of the Rockies. In fact, it's not uncommon for the Arctic front to reach Brownsville & Corpus Christi before the cold air spreads east to Houston. True Arctic fronts only very rarely take a southeasterly track vs. straight south. That's because they're not driven by the upper-level low. The very cold air just takes the path of least resistance - straight south.

[txsnowmaker]

I don't think it's a bad thing that the news outlets are mentioning the potential for an extended period of sub-freezing temperatures across the local area the week of Christmas. Many people will be heading out of town late next week. They need to be made aware of the freeze threat so that they can take appropriate actions to prevent their pipes from busting and their homes being flooded.

Of course, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to just how cold it might get between the 22nd and 31st. Possibilities range from lows in the low teens and highs in the 20s to lows in the mid to upper 20s with highs in the 30s and 40s. There is certainly a chance that Houston's temps may remain below freezing for over 24 hours.

As to some of the models attempting to shunt the colder air off to the east - that's unlikely, and it's a common error with Arctic air in this time frame before possible impact. In almost all cases, the Arctic air plunges almost straight south lee of the Rockies. In fact, it's not uncommon for the Arctic front to reach Brownsville & Corpus Christi before the cold air spreads east to Houston. True Arctic fronts only very rarely take a southeasterly track vs. straight south. That's because they're not driven by the upper-level low. The very cold air just takes the path of least resistance - straight south.

Thank you for that. I know to take things seriously if wxman57 is not shooting this possibility down.

[snowman65]

Right...and a big THANKS to wxman57 for posting his meteogram formula. I made my first graph this morning for Christmas week for a friend (for Denver area). Came out just like it was supposed to....THANKS!!

[wxman57]

Right...and a big THANKS to wxman57 for posting his meteogram formula. I made my first graph this morning for Christmas week for a friend (for Denver area). Came out just like it was supposed to....THANKS!!

Keep in mind that the latest GFS runs lost track of the cold air. I don't think they'll turn out to be very accurate.

[cristina6871]

Right...and a big THANKS to wxman57 for posting his meteogram formula. I made my first graph this morning for Christmas week for a friend (for Denver area). Came out just like it was supposed to....THANKS!!

Keep in mind that the latest GFS runs lost track of the cold air. I don't think they'll turn out to be very accurate.

So what does that mean......that the possiblity for a cold Christmas week has started to weaken? No cold air?!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Right...and a big THANKS to wxman57 for posting his meteogram formula. I made my first graph this morning for Christmas week for a friend (for Denver area). Came out just like it was supposed to....THANKS!!

Keep in mind that the latest GFS runs lost track of the cold air. I don't think they'll turn out to be very accurate.

So what does that mean......that the possiblity for a cold Christmas week has started to weaken? No cold air?!

No it means the GFS isn't handling the situation well considering the variables.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z European ensemble mean which is comprised of 50+ individual members or solutions is out and as wxman57 suggested, we can see that the trough is positioned to drop very far S (image on the left) ~vs~ the deterministic or operational output (image on the right). It is also noteworthy that the Euro ensemble mean suggests little in the way of transitioning E as the deterministic Euro suggested. This is noted by the blocking High Pressure systems or green shading off the Pacific West Coast and offshore of the Atlantic Coast. Also note just how far S the base of the trough digs into Mexico.

[snowman65]

Right...and a big THANKS to wxman57 for posting his meteogram formula. I made my first graph this morning for Christmas week for a friend (for Denver area). Came out just like it was supposed to....THANKS!!

Keep in mind that the latest GFS runs lost track of the cold air. I don't think they'll turn out to be very accurate.

I was just trying to pacify her for now