January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[redneckweather]

Ed is negative about the weather abut 98% of the time. I think it's more of a devil's advocate type of thing...like wish it away but in reality you are wanting it to happen. Kinda like he called off hurricane season just a tad early but then Ike came in and tore him a new one. It worked!!!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

WRF

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmea ... _1hour.gif

[ticka1]

Ed is negative about the weather abut 98% of the time. I think it's more of a devil's advocate type of thing...like wish it away but in reality you are wanting it to happen. Kinda like he called off hurricane season just a tad early but then Ike came in and tore him a new one. It worked!!!!

I call it reverse pyschology per Ed his WX way

Novel idea - look outside the door and watch as the weather happens - then we will know what happens.

[snowman65]

Just curious but........is there a particular model that was closest to what we got last Friday? If so, what does that one show for this event? When is the next run?

[ticka1]

I show the front is through downtown - wind shift and temps dropped a little.

[TxJohn]

Tim Heller is right. I think he's one of the best mets in Houston. Plus Brooks Garner of KHOU said this days ago that Houston will see mostly ice.

This is why you don't go on TV forecasting 3-6 inches of snow and saying kids will have a snow day tomorrow
Kudos to the Mets that kept a conservative forecast yet cautioning the public on the impacts and going along with their models amd combine knowledge and not what they think MIGHt happen.

Anyways...ready for this freezing rain episode to come and go.

[jasons2k]

Just remember folks, the weather is a natural occurrence and no amount of cheerleading or downplaying the event, either way, will make any difference. I prefer when people post what the data is telling them versus trying to hype (or downplay) the reality of the situation. Just my $.02.

[stormlover]

Tim heller is a all model guy!!!

[wxman57]

You can't believe the models from 2-3 days ago that showed snow then not believe them when the trend is toward more freezing rain and sleet. There is a definite trend in all of the models toward a warmer layer aloft that may melt any snowflakes. Each model run will incorporate the latest data from radiosondes across the U.S. that are now passing through this layer of Arctic air. Runs from 2-3 days ago were based upon more limited data from Canada. Currently, none of the models is indicating any significant snow across Houston because of that warm layer aloft between 5000 and 10000 ft. And then there's the question as to how much of any type of precipitation will occur. It doesn't take much to cause issues on bridges/overpasses once temps are below freezing, as we saw last Friday.

I've lived on the Gulf Coast for all of my 56 years and I've been forecasting the weather down here for 34 years. This event doesn't have the look of a significant snow event across Houston. It looks like more freezing rain and sleet. I'm hopeful that my 84 year-old mother (living with us now) will at least see a snowflake or two, but I'm not confident that she will (southwest Houston).

I plan on staying home tomorrow and working from there. Though I can make it to work (25 miles) on surface streets I can just as easily work from home.

[TxJohn]

Brooks garner latched on to the idea first I think 2 day ago that this would be ice.

[losmabies]

Wow - just saw Clevland ISD has cancelled school for tomorrow and Wednesday and a couple of other districts have announced closings for tomorrow as well. I find this extremely early based on the fact that we still don't know what is going to happen.

[ticka1]

Hearing Cleveland ISD and Dayton ISD have cancelled classes Tuesday and Wednesday via social media - trying to confirm.

[srainhoutx]

The GEFS individual ensemble members are 'wetter', thus more of a chance of freezing precip if the ensembles are correct. Let me add, until we get sounding data from Texas A & M and U of H during the overnight hours it is highly irresponsible for anyone to call this a bust. Last Friday .10 inch of freezing rain and sleet with temps at 28-29 F brought our Region to a stand still. Temperatures are currently expected to be in the low to mid 20's during this precipitation event during the daytime hours tomorrow. I think is is best to drop the bust comments and concentrate on what is actually happening to our N and W.

[Rip76]

The GEFS individual ensemble members are 'wetter', thus more of a chance of freezing precip if the ensembles are correct. Let me add, until we get sounding data from Texas A & M and U of H during the overnight hours it is highly irresponsible for anyone to call this a bust. Last Friday .10 inch of freezing rain and sleet with temps at 28-29 F brought our Region to a stand still. Temperatures are currently expected to be in the low to mid 20's during this precipitation event during the daytime hours tomorrow. I think is is best to drop the bust comments and concentrate on what is actually happening to our N and W.

Looks like a bit of moisture out there to me.

[Wood6818]

NWS still shows my area with a 70% chance of Wintey MIX/Frezzing Rain/Sleet and Snow for the day tomorrow. then drops to 20% tomorrow night. High Tuesday only 32. SO they must feel confident. Wen can we expect these soundings from A&M, I saw where UH is sending balloons Tomorrow.

[jgreak]

Can confirm that Dayton and Cleveland ISDs have cancelled classes for Tues and Wed.

[Portastorm]

What some consider a bust, a tenth of ice, at the wrong time, is still a potential disaster for people with millioniare bosses 3 miiles from the Galleria on surface streets who think live local news and Houston TransStar coverage of wrecks and stuck cars is hype.

I hope some of the added university balloon data gets assimilated into models, BTW. and hope someone can post the skew-Ts as the data comes in...

Ed is right. Let me put this in perspective for you folks. Here in Austin, last Friday, we received about .08" of sleet/freezing rain mix. It iced over EVERY elevated roadway and bridge in town and we saw more than 200 accidents in less than 24 hours. Despite the funny/sarcastic memes which made the social media circuit about Austin experiencing "Blizzard 2014" ... just that small amount of liquid created such havoc. Ground temps should be close to the same for y'all as they were for us. If you see that amount or more of precip, you can expect that kind of result with it being worse than more precip you get.

[Andrew]

What some consider a bust, a tenth of ice, at the wrong time, is still a potential disaster for people with millioniare bosses 3 miiles from the Galleria on surface streets who think live local news and Houston TransStar coverage of wrecks and stuck cars is hype.

I hope some of the added university balloon data gets assimilated into models, BTW. and hope someone can post the skew-Ts as the data comes in...

Unfortunately it does not get assimilated into the models. I guess too much trust issues or something like that.

[MRG93415]

I dont understand why Cleveland and Dayton cancelled school for Tuesday and Wednesday???

[vci_guy2003]

I don't see any way we are in the low to mid 20s during the day tomorrow.