February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[Texaspirate11]

Happy National Weather Persons Day to one of the best weather sites around.
HUZZAH!

[Portastorm]

Heh ... might not be a bad idea for some in Texas to keep up on the very latest forecasts:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1011 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE DROPS WERE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MINOR CHANGES WERE
ALSO MADE TO THE WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DESPITE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC HAS IT ANALYZED STRONGER
THAN ANY OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY
HAVE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT FOR TOMORROW. THESE CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

DUNN

[redneckweather]

I hope you get a little surprise Porta! All it would take was a quick good dusting of snow or more and I would be one happy sob! Good luck!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is indicating a bit more moisture and a bit strong upper air disturbance moving across our Region overnight into tomorrow. While it is likely that a lot of dry air at the surface would need to be over come, a few reports of flurries, a sleet pellet or two and very light freezing drizzle wouldn't surprise me early tomorrow morning into tomorrow night. We will see.

[Kingwood31]

What about this system I'm hearing chatter about for Tuesday? What's the deal with that one?

[wxman57]

What about this system I'm hearing chatter about for Tuesday? What's the deal with that one?

For now, models indicate our temps are well above freezing during the precipitation. Could be some decent rain ahead of the cold front, though.

[Andrew]

It's kinda amazing to note how much a cold bias the gfs can have at time. GFS mos shows a low of 22 tomorrow morning with overcast conditions. Been doing this all winter long too. Looking at next weeks system, temps look above freezing but the possibility for much needed rain definitely looks good.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Lake Charles issues Winter Weather Advisory for their Northern forecast area. This includes Jasper, Woodville and on E to Alexandria, LA. Beaumont and Lake Charles are not in the Advisory at this time.

[wxman57]

I think that at most there may be a few sleet pellets north of Houston to north of Lake Charles in the morning. Nothing close to last Tuesday.

[unome]

we have "wintry mix" in our forecast for 6-8 AM Thursday as of right now, low chance, only 20%, hope it stays away from Hwy 290 because nobody knows how to skate in their vehicle here :?

[skidog40]

Katy NWS . a chance tonight to?


Tonight


Wintry Mix Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%

Wintry
Mix


Low: 32 °F


Thursday



Wintry Mix Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%

Wintry
Mix


High: 41 °F

[TexasBreeze]

The best winter events happen here when they don't make a big deal about it.

[tireman4]

And HGX added even more to our forecast....Hummm (Wxman57.. )


Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain between 3am and 5am, then a slight chance of flurries, freezing rain, and sleet after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday: A slight chance of flurries, freezing rain, and sleet before 8am, then a slight chance of rain between 8am and 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

AFD:

VIATION...
BESIDES SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE EDGE OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARDS FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS
WILL START AROUND 10KFT AND SLOWLY START TO LOWER TO AROUND ~5KT
BY TOMORROW. CLOUDS SHOULD STAY VFR THOUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING
PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FROZEN PRECIP. BOTH GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR AROUND 850MB. THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR ANY
PRECIP THAT FORMS TO EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND. SOUNDING
PROFILES SUPPORT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR KCXO NORTHWARDS
WHILE ICE PELLETS FOR KSGR NORTHWARDS. THE NAM OMEGA FIELD SHOWS LIFT
OVER THE HOUSTON AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BETTER LIFT OFFSHORE.
HIGH RES MODELS ARE A MIXTURE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWING
HARDLY ANY PRECIP WHILE THE NAM... NMM... AND ARW SHOW PRECIP
FORMING BUT HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. IN THE END WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SNOW FLAKE/ ICE PELLET OR TWO TO MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND BUT AT THIS POINT THE CHANCE LOOKS LOW. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY STRETCHING THRU SRN AZ & NEW MEXICO
INTO MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS MORNING. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME RETURNS BEGIN SHOWING UP ON RADAR AFTER 3 AM AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES.

PROBLEM IS MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ABOVE 8000FT WITH DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER THRU MID MORNING THURS. SO...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF RETURNS TO BE VIRGA WITH JUST AN ISOLATED,
INTERMITTENT, VERY LIGHT MIX REACHING THE GROUND FROM TIME TO TIME
THRU ABOUT 10 AM. NO SIGNIFICANT FROZEN ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED, NEITHER ARE ANY WINTER RELATED ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT OCCURS, LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SW & PRESERVE MCLDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
THRU THE DAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS
TX LATE FRI BRINGING A (SLIGHT) CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE.

ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND PRESSURES FALL TO THE WEST. DIFFERENCES
ARISE IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS ON SUNDAY WHEN GFS TRIES TO BRING A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA. ECMWF GENERALLY STALLS
AND MEANDERS THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SE TX LATE SUN THRU WED MORNING
UNTIL IT GETS A NUDGE FROM THE NEXT INCOMING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. TIMING & DETAILS ASIDE, IT APPEARS WE SHOULD GET SOME SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. STARTED TRENDING FCST CLOSER
TO THE MORE PROLONGED ECMWF CHANCES THAT ALSO PROVIDES A SFC
FOCUSING MECHANISM. 47

[unome]

looks like they increased the hours for possible wintry mix, still only 20% tonight & tomorrow am

[cristina6871]

just got an alert on phone that NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Montgomery County. While this is most likely a precaution, it does show that temps are going to fall. Brrrr!

[weatherag]

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10
AM...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE AND HAS BEEN PULLING MOISTURE NORTH THIS EVENING. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW FLURRIES AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON LINE. TEMPERATURES AT
6 AM SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THESE AREAS SO SOME PATCHY
ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE ON BRIDGES AS THE SNOW AND SLEET MELT BUT THEN
REFREEZE BUT ANY PATCHY ICE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY 10 AM. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212-061600-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WW.Y.0002.140206T0800Z-140206T1600Z/
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...
BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE
933 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICY CONDITIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL NEAR COLUMBUS AROUND
2 TO 4 AM AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST REACHING THE LIVINGSTON
AREA BY 5 TO 7 AM. THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER SHOULD END BY 9 TO
10 AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

* MAIN IMPACT...AS PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL FALL INTO A LAYER
AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS AND SHOULD BE A
COMBINATION OF SLEET AND SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
RAIN. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT ACCUMULATES ON BRIDGES IS LIKELY TO
MELT THEN MAY REFREEZE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO
8 AM WINDOW. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS ON
ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF ICE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF ANY.

&&

$$

[redneckweather]

Snow Watch time again for me here in Mongtomery County!!

[Baseballdude2915]

3 NWS Winter Weather bulletins issued in 3 weeks. This is a crazy winter for sure!

[skidog40]

forecasts made
no going back now

[Katdaddy]

Radar is showing snow and sleet that has yet to reach the ground moving into SE TX. Perhaps a flurry or two this morning for Houston metro.