February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[ticka1]

we got the deluge!

[SusieinLP]

Got a couple rumbles of thunder and a decent shower that lasted awhile. Hope to get more next week

[ronyan]

We had a few light showers yesterday, no thunder down here. Probably only around 0.05" of rain fell.

[wxman57]

0.43" yesterday in southwest Houston. Streets had a lot of water on them when I drove home yesterday afternoon.

[Paul Robison]

Dear anyone, (but esp. Srainhoutex)

How do things look in regards to (possible) high-impact thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday?

[srainhoutx]

Dear anyone, (but esp. Srainhoutex)

How do things look in regards to (possible) high-impact thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday?

No high-impact storms Sunday through Wednesday, Paul. That said a strong cold front should arrive late Tuesday night/early Wednesday bringing much colder temperatures and over running light drizzle/light rains Wednesday night into possibly Thursday. A short wave (upper air disturbance) may pass W to E across the Lone Star State on Friday and a much stronger disturbance is penciled in for next weekend that may generate some storms, but that is too far out to know with any certainty. The main weather headline this week will be the return of sea/bay fog tomorrow and the strong cold front on Wednesday that will remind us that Winter is not yet over. Just in time for the trail riders to make their way into Houston as the Rodeo starts later this week.

[Paul Robison]

Dear anyone, (but esp. Srainhoutex)

How do things look in regards to (possible) high-impact thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday?

No high-impact storms Sunday through Wednesday, Paul. That said a strong cold front should arrive late Tuesday night/early Wednesday bringing much colder temperatures and over running light drizzle/light rains Wednesday night into possibly Thursday. A short wave (upper air disturbance) may pass W to E across the Lone Star State on Friday and a much stronger disturbance is penciled in for next weekend that may generate some storms, but that is too far out to know with any certainty. The main weather headline this week will be the return of sea/bay fog tomorrow and the strong cold front on Wednesday that will remind us that Winter is not yet over. Just in time for the trail riders to make their way into Houston as the Rodeo starts later this week.

Yum!

[redneckweather]

We may have a cold front on the way but Spring has sprung all around my house. Weeds are coming up thick and my fruit trees are blooming. My apple tree is already loaded with flowers. Also fixing to make a run to the river and load up on white bass. They are in their thick spawning.

[Texaspirate11]

Srainhoutex - do you know what next Friday may bring? I know its way off and things can change, but I'm riding on a float in Galveston next Friday night....????? I'd hate to have to wear long johns with my pirate outfit

[wxman57]

Srainhoutex - do you know what next Friday may bring? I know its way off and things can change, but I'm riding on a float in Galveston next Friday night....????? I'd hate to have to wear long johns with my pirate outfit

12Z GFS indicates mid to upper 60s Friday evening.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon Update from Jeff:

Humid air mass has returned to SE TX overnight and along with that so has the sea fog.

Dewpoints running over nearshore water temperatures brought a round of sea fog this morning…since about 1000am visibilities have improved even down along the coast, but expect this to be short lived as late afternoon will bring a rapid return of dense sea fog back to the coast and then it will begin its inland progression after sunset. Weak frontal boundary over NW TX currently will slide SE and into the region this evening before stalling likely in the region between I-10 and HWY 105 tonight. Ongoing light rain showers will end from WSW to ENE early this afternoon as slightly drier air mixes into the region from the west.

Monday will feature another warm and humid day with southern sea fog. Weak frontal boundary tonight will wash out/return northward as a warm front keeping the area warm and humid into Monday night and Tuesday morning. Big changes arrive on Tuesday as the next frontal boundary with a push of modified polar air slides southward and off the coast. Lift and moisture look favorable so a band of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front with post frontal rains continuing into Tuesday night and possibly early Wednesday morning as the main trough axis does not cross the area until Wednesday morning producing a brief period of overrunning moisture. Temperatures behind the front will cool to below seasonal averages for this time of year with Wednesday potentially having highs in the lower 50’s with cloudy skies and cold air advection. Could see near freezing temperatures over portions of the area by Thursday morning if skies clear and winds are calm…think any freeze would be light…but some vegetation has leafed/flowered with the recent warm weather and it could be nipped.

Thursday will feature returning southerly flow and moisture ahead of a potent short wave on Friday. This system looks very impressive with its dynamics, but it currently forecast to pass just far enough north/east of SE TX to keep most of its weather north/east of our area. This system does bear close watch as any southward adjustment could bring a round of severe weather to the area on Friday given the strong dynamics aloft. Current thinking 5-days out is that mid level capping (warm air aloft) will hold over our region…but a lot can change in 5 days.

Another storm system is possible by late next week in this progressive upper level flow pattern.

[Texaspirate11]

Srainhoutex - do you know what next Friday may bring? I know its way off and things can change, but I'm riding on a float in Galveston next Friday night....????? I'd hate to have to wear long johns with my pirate outfit

12Z GFS indicates mid to upper 60s Friday evening.

You are the man. Thank you SO much...float, float on.....

[srainhoutx]

Low clouds and fog has briefly lifted in NW Harris County yielding some partly cloudy skies and a glorious Sunday for grilling by the pool. The shock of the much colder temps mid week although brief will be hard to handle after this Spring like warmth that we've experienced the last several days.

[biffb816]

The shock of the much colder temps mid week although brief will be hard to handle after this Spring like warmth that we've experienced the last several days.

I still look forward to them. Those temps are right in my comfort wheelhouse.

[Paul Robison]

Afternoon Update from Jeff:

Humid air mass has returned to SE TX overnight and along with that so has the sea fog.

Dewpoints running over nearshore water temperatures brought a round of sea fog this morning…since about 1000am visibilities have improved even down along the coast, but expect this to be short lived as late afternoon will bring a rapid return of dense sea fog back to the coast and then it will begin its inland progression after sunset. Weak frontal boundary over NW TX currently will slide SE and into the region this evening before stalling likely in the region between I-10 and HWY 105 tonight. Ongoing light rain showers will end from WSW to ENE early this afternoon as slightly drier air mixes into the region from the west.

Monday will feature another warm and humid day with southern sea fog. Weak frontal boundary tonight will wash out/return northward as a warm front keeping the area warm and humid into Monday night and Tuesday morning. Big changes arrive on Tuesday as the next frontal boundary with a push of modified polar air slides southward and off the coast. Lift and moisture look favorable so a band of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front with post frontal rains continuing into Tuesday night and possibly early Wednesday morning as the main trough axis does not cross the area until Wednesday morning producing a brief period of overrunning moisture. Temperatures behind the front will cool to below seasonal averages for this time of year with Wednesday potentially having highs in the lower 50’s with cloudy skies and cold air advection. Could see near freezing temperatures over portions of the area by Thursday morning if skies clear and winds are calm…think any freeze would be light…but some vegetation has leafed/flowered with the recent warm weather and it could be nipped.

Thursday will feature returning southerly flow and moisture ahead of a potent short wave on Friday. This system looks very impressive with its dynamics, but it currently forecast to pass just far enough north/east of SE TX to keep most of its weather north/east of our area. This system does bear close watch as any southward adjustment could bring a round of severe weather to the area on Friday given the strong dynamics aloft. Current thinking 5-days out is that mid level capping (warm air aloft) will hold over our region…but a lot can change in 5 days.

Another storm system is possible by late next week in this progressive upper level flow pattern.

Wait a minute, Srainhoutex, I thought you said in an earlier post we didn't have to worry too much about thunderstorms. What changed?

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Strong cold front will bring much colder air and high rain chances to the region.

Current ill defined frontal boundary lying across the area with dense sea fog once again in place along the coast and spreading inland to I-10. Boundary appeared to have moved through the I-10 corridor around 400am and now appears to have backed northward allowing sea fog to spread back inland. Visibilities have been going down most of the morning from US 59 southward. Think it may be hard to clear out the sea fog on the coast today unless a better push of drier air moves down from the NNE and this is looking suspect at the moment.

Bigger item of interest is the incoming strong frontal boundary Tuesday and potential for some decent wetting rainfall. Shorter term models have trended wetter overnight with amounts adding some hope that the incoming system may in fact generate some short term drought relief over the region. Strong frontal boundary will arrive into the region Tuesday afternoon and cross the area Tuesday evening with showers and possibly a thunderstorm developing ahead of the boundary and then potentially widespread rainfall behind the boundary in the cold air. Temperatures will quickly fall from the humid 70’s into the 40’s behind this front as the area receives a glancing blow of arctic air. Advancing cold air will end the sea fog threat for the rest of the week after Tuesday.

Looks like rains will continue into Wednesday morning as moisture is brought up and over the surface cold dome. Current model QPF fields along with HPC progs suggest a solid .50 of an inch across the area with isolated totals of 1.0-1.5 inches possible especially toward the coast where rains may linger the longest. Would not rule out a period of cell training of heavier elevation convection at some point Tuesday night which could push totals a little higher in a few narrow bands.

Rains look to end on Wednesday but front stalls not far off the coast and cloud cover will linger. Expect cold temperatures with highs likely in the low 50’s under gusty north winds. Not overly sure the area will see much sun on Thursday or Friday either as SW flow aloft looks to push Pacific moisture toward the area…but will keep rain chances on the low side (20%) for now. Could see a couple of disturbances ride up and out of MX in this flow helping to generate a few showers if there is enough moisture around near the surface. Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year into Friday before winds turn back to the south.

Active flow pattern aloft continues into next week with some additional rain chances helping to ease some of the building drought across the area.

Next 7-Day Rainfall Amounts:

[srainhoutx]

It appears that March may well start an active period as we transition to a much wetter pattern and Spring begins. Perhaps someone would like to start a March Topic as we are nearing the end of February...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014

VALID 12Z THU FEB 27 2014 - 12Z MON MAR 03 2014

...RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PLAINS... UPPER
MIDWEST... AND GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK...

...OVERVIEW...

TWO MAIN PLAYERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE CONUS INTO THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THE FIRST WILL BE A DEEP AND COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY... FUNNELING
COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. THE SECOND PLAYER WILL BE THE
SFC REFLECTION OF A SLOWLY-MOVING AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SEND A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEMS INTO CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE GREAT BASIN... BRINGING IN
MARCH LIKE A LION. THE TWO AIRMASSES AND THEIR THERMAL CONTRASTS
SHOULD COLLIDE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SNOWS RETURNING
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BIG DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE SWINGS FOR
WESTERN MONTANA... WYOMING... UTAH... AND COLORADO.

...MODEL PREFERENCES AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE 23/12Z ECMWF AND 23/18Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
MESHED VERY WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS SET OF GRAPHICS THROUGH THE END
OF DAY 5. AFTER DAY 5...GENERALLY TAPERED BACK AND AWAY FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION...UTILIZING ITS GEFS MEMBERS
COLLECTIVELY BUT EMPHASIZING THE ECENS MEANS WITH A BIT OF ITS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION FOR FINER DETAILS CONCERNING THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL EJECT A STRONG WAVE OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON DAY 6. THE GEFS/GFS LOOKED A GOOD 1/2 DAY SLOWER AND
SENDS THE SYSTEM INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
ECENS/ECMWF BEING A BETTER FIT TO THE PATTERN AND TRACKING A
850MB-700MB SYSTEM ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...OZARKS AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7. I SAY A BETTER FIT--IN THAT--THE GFS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TO ARGUE FOR A SHARP SHORTWAVE TO DIG
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC
ENERGY OVER WYOMING...ENOUGH SO...TO BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF A
850MB-700MB LOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLOW SUPPORTING ITS
DEVELOPMENT. AT LEAST THE ECMWF... POSITIONS THE SYSTEM IN A
FAVORABLE REGION (OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FOR A
SOUTHERLY INFLOW...AND POSSIBLY A DRY LINE...TO KICK START THE
CYCLOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE
WEATHER FEATURE THAT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING AND MAKING ALTERATIONS
TO IN THE COMING MODEL CYCLES.

OTHERWISE...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY (DAY4/5)...WPC MAINTAINS THE
STATUS QUO CONCERNING THE WAVE FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND DEVELOPING SET OF COASTAL WAVES EXITING THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM'S INFLUENCE
CONTINUES TO BE NOTABLE...AND THE SURGE OF A 'FRESH' ARCTIC
AIRMASS RUSHING IN BEHIND IT IS EQUALLY FRIGID OVER ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION AND ITS
993MB LOW INVOF HALIFAX NS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS FASTER AND
DEEPER THAN THE GFS....BOTH GENERALLY CAPTURE THE REPLACEMENT OF
MUCH COLDER AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND FOR DAY 7. THE DIFFERENCES ARE
APPRECIABLE SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND PREFERRED TO HANDLE
THEM WITH A 70/30 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECENS/18Z GEFS FOR THAT DAY 7
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM PHL-DOV SOUTHWARD TO RDU-ORF. AND LIKE
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE MEANS GENERALLY COVER THE
PATTERN AND ARCTIC AIRMASS TRAJECTORIES EVEN IF THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS (GFS/ECMWF THEMSELVES) ONLY SHOW MODEST AGREEMENT.

AS A SIDE NOTE...THOUGHT THE WEST LEANED CLOSER TO AN OVERALL
ECMWF SOLUTION BEYOND DAY 5. AND IN THIS PATTERN (A NEGATIVE-TILT
TROUGH DIRECTING PROGRESSIVELY 'MORE-INTENSE' ENERGY INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA)...WOULD EXPECT THE COLDEST AIR TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE...NOT THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...VIA EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON.
THERE JUST IS NOT MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THE TROUGH EAST OF THE DIVIDE
TO ACCOMPLISH THIS TASK...AND THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SERIES OF
PACIFIC WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE COLD AIR ALONG 45N-50N LATITUDE.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
WET WEATHER RETURNS TO CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ITS VAST NETWORK OF
MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE MOISTURE AND PACIFIC AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE ON A
VERY BROAD COLLISION COURSE ALONG MUCH OF THE DIVIDE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...ASIDE FROM THE NEW MEXICO PORTION OF THE DIVIDE...WHERE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE VERSUS PRECIPITATION. ALL
ALONG THE DIVIDE...A TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN THE
OFFING...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WESTERN SLOPES/SIDES AND
BITTER COLD EAST...AND A MIX OF THE TWO WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSLATING FROM SW TO NE FROM SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. TO ILLUSTRATE THIS CHALLENGE...SATURDAY (MARCH
2ND-18Z)...THE 24/00Z GFS HAS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE M14C IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO...AND +14C IN SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO. ITS EVEN MORE DRASTIC IN WYOMING WITH M24C IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND +8C IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE
(MARCH 2ND-18Z).

DOWNSTREAM...IN THE DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS...THE GUIDANCE IS LOCKED
IN WITH TEMPERATURES A HEALTHY 25F-35F BELOW NORMAL FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. DO AGREE THAT SOME RECORDS WILL FALL DURING THIS MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD (NORTH OF I-80).

VOJTESAK/FRACASSO

[srainhoutx]

It appears this quick shot of colder air may have some teeth with it. The WPC Winter Weather Outlook Desk has increased the probabilities of freezing rain and sleet across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Northern Hill Country into the San Angelo area and chance shifts E into Louisiana and Mississippi Thursday night as the colder air settles further S along the Northern Gulf Coast.

[Paul Robison]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Strong cold front will bring much colder air and high rain chances to the region.

Current ill defined frontal boundary lying across the area with dense sea fog once again in place along the coast and spreading inland to I-10. Boundary appeared to have moved through the I-10 corridor around 400am and now appears to have backed northward allowing sea fog to spread back inland. Visibilities have been going down most of the morning from US 59 southward. Think it may be hard to clear out the sea fog on the coast today unless a better push of drier air moves down from the NNE and this is looking suspect at the moment.

Bigger item of interest is the incoming strong frontal boundary Tuesday and potential for some decent wetting rainfall. Shorter term models have trended wetter overnight with amounts adding some hope that the incoming system may in fact generate some short term drought relief over the region. Strong frontal boundary will arrive into the region Tuesday afternoon and cross the area Tuesday evening with showers and possibly a thunderstorm developing ahead of the boundary and then potentially widespread rainfall behind the boundary in the cold air. Temperatures will quickly fall from the humid 70’s into the 40’s behind this front as the area receives a glancing blow of arctic air. Advancing cold air will end the sea fog threat for the rest of the week after Tuesday.

Looks like rains will continue into Wednesday morning as moisture is brought up and over the surface cold dome. Current model QPF fields along with HPC progs suggest a solid .50 of an inch across the area with isolated totals of 1.0-1.5 inches possible especially toward the coast where rains may linger the longest. Would not rule out a period of cell training of heavier elevation convection at some point Tuesday night which could push totals a little higher in a few narrow bands.

Rains look to end on Wednesday but front stalls not far off the coast and cloud cover will linger. Expect cold temperatures with highs likely in the low 50’s under gusty north winds. Not overly sure the area will see much sun on Thursday or Friday either as SW flow aloft looks to push Pacific moisture toward the area…but will keep rain chances on the low side (20%) for now. Could see a couple of disturbances ride up and out of MX in this flow helping to generate a few showers if there is enough moisture around near the surface. Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year into Friday before winds turn back to the south.

Active flow pattern aloft continues into next week with some additional rain chances helping to ease some of the building drought across the area.

Next 7-Day Rainfall Amounts:

02242014 Jeff image001.gif

How much wind shear will be available for a strong storm, srainhoutex?

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Big changes arrive tonight.

Pesky sea fog has moved inland from the coast overnight with fog fairly widespread early this morning. Nearshore and bay waters continue to run in the mid to upper 50’s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60’s making near ideal sea fog conditions as the warm humid air is chilled over the cold near shore water. Expect very slow recovery to visibilities today as winds are light and moist air continues to flow over the cold nearshore waters. Current visibilities range from .13 of a mile at BUSH IAH to .25 of a mile at Hobby and .75 of a mile at Wharton. Of note Galveston has reported sea fog for 47 of the last 49 hours and had 10 straight hours with visibilities of .75 of a mile of less.

One of the better looking rainfall producing systems in a while appears on track for late this afternoon into Wednesday morning. Moisture continues to increase off the Gulf of Mexico with average PWS for this time of year in the 1.0-1.15 inch range. Expect these values to increase into the 1.3-1.6 inch range by early tonight with 1.6 inch being very near the +2 SD for this time of year. PW is simply the integration of the entire liquid water content of the air column from the surface to the upper levels. Values generally over 2SD for that time of year point toward the potential for heavy rainfall production.

Strong modified arctic front will slice into the abundant moisture tonight with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing. Ingredients really come together in the midnight to noon period on Wednesday as the surface front pushes off the coast and the 850mb front stalls across the region. Jet dynamics aloft with favorable region of coring sub-tropical jet stream will help to enhance lift. Expect some banding of the rainfall near the 850mb frontal position in this time period and we could see a window of cell training just behind (north) of the surface front and along/south of the 850mb front. Could see just enough instability above the surface for some elevated thunderstorms which would enhance rainfall production.

Expect widespread rainfall amounts of .50-1.5 inches across a good part of the region. Amounts will likely be closer to .50 around Matagorda Bay and higher east of I-45. Could see a few isolated totals of 2.0-2.5 inches especially where any cell training develops. Models have been trending upward on QPF over the past few runs and if this continues today some of the amounts above could be bumped up a tad more.

Other item will be significantly cold temperatures as a cold polar air mass pours into the region. Temperatures will fall quickly into the 40’s behind the boundary and really not warm much at all on Wednesday….maybe mid 40’s with early day rain and afternoon clouds. Gusty north winds will make it feel about 10 degrees colder. Significantly lower dewpoints and north winds behind the front will effectively end the sea fog threat until early this weekend.

Cold Thursday morning, but looks like we will not see a widespread freeze as cloud hang around. Lows in the mid 30’s for most areas warming into the 50’s if the clouds clear by late morning. Polar high quickly moves eastward in this very fast flow aloft resulting in a rapid warm up by Friday ahead of yet another front. Does not look like there will be enough time for good moisture recovery ahead of this weak front and some of the guidance suggest the boundary stalls near the coast and really does not bring much of any dry air into the region. If this is the case sea fog will be back for the period from Friday evening into at least Monday of next week.

Long range shows yet another storm system approaching late in the weekend with another chance of rainfall followed by more cold air.