May Weather Discussion.

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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sleetstorm wrote:Yes, biggerbyte & Ptarmigan, I noticed that, too. Those thunderstorms still have more than ample time to become much more severe than what they already are. I noticed that a few severe thunderstorm warnings were on a few of them, but then they lost some of their intensity which is needless to say the reason why those warnings were discontinued.
If they hold up, I think they would be over Houston by morning.
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wxdata
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Getting a TVS alert for just off shore of Galveston. Waterspout?
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1114 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1111 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PORT BOLIVAR...OR
7 MILES NORTH OF GALVESTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO SMITH POINT.
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wxdata
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I knew it!


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1118 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1111 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CRYSTAL BEACH... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROLLOVER PASS...HIGH ISLAND AND GILCHRIST.
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wxdata
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Interesting 'notch' on the radar....
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wxdata
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Velocity picking up rotation..
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wxdata
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Rotation moving on shore over Chambers County now.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1137 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR OAK ISLAND TO
NEAR ROLLOVER PASS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO HIGH ISLAND...WINNIE AND STOWELL.

WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECT WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
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txflagwaver
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When does it look like the storms to our West will get here?
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wxdata
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txflagwaver wrote:When does it look like the storms to our West will get here?
At current speeds- 6-8 hours.
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djjordan
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Based on past experiences I am thinking that our atmosphere is probably worked over pretty good at this point..... that area of storms to our west will probably put out an outflow boundary and fire off more storms tomorrow mid morning to early afternoon IMO .... of course I could be wrong. LOL
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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wxdata
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Meso low moving northeast through Chambers county..
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djjordan
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Been watching out west now for a few hours ..... they definitely look like they are holding together if not getting stronger as they SLOWLY move east .....
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Interesting Climo at the end of the AFD this morning




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TODAY`S FORECAST AS ALMOST ALL OF
THE HGX AREA LIES BETWEEN TWO STORM COMPLEXES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ONE OFF TO OUR EAST RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY`S RECORD BREAKING AND
FOR THE MOST PART WELCOME RAINFALL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE THE ONE
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF FALLING APART AS IT EDGES
INTO OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS OUR ALREADY
WORKED OVER AIR MASS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ENOUGH RECOVERY TIME COULD OCCUR THAT COULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE MOVING INTO OUR AREA. ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER
FROM YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY COULD ALSO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...AND WILL CARRY THESE CHANCES ON
INTO TONIGHT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION
THIS IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
OF WHERE TODAY`S BEST RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON AREA RAINFALL AND HOIST FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IF NEEDED. THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM SUNDAY ON INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NO WAY TO TELL EXACTLY WHEN...WHERE OR HOW STRONG EACH
DISTURBANCE WILL BE THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CARRY LOW POPS FOR NOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL CARRY LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND SHOW
A SLOW RISE INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE. 42
&&

.MARINE...
A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDER ACROSS MARITIME REGIONS. WIND AND SEA STATE WILL QUICKLY
BECOME AGITATED IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AND REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
UNDER 15 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH AVERAGE SEA HEIGHTS ARE ON THE
DECLINE...OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A SLOWER FALL AS 5 FOOT SEAS
(WITH NEAR 7 SEC PERIODS) DOMINATE TODAY`S FAR OFFSHORE WATERS.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEA HEIGHTS WILL LEVEL OUT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. 31

&&

.CLIMATE...
DO NOT RECALL ANY DAY IN THE PAST WHEN NEW RECORD RAINFALL TOTALS
WERE RECORDED AT EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES. YESTERDAY...IAH RECORDED
2.44 INCHES WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 2.08 INCHES SET IN 1908...
HOU RECORDED 1.01 INCHES WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 0.54 INCHES
SET IN 1946...GLS RECORDED 3.63 INCHES WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF
1.54 INCHES SET IN 1908...AND CLL RECORDED 1.04 INCHES WHICH BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 1.01 INCHES BACK IN 1923. 42
&&
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Already seeing lightning flashes from my house in Sugar Land from the storms out west .... thinking they are gonna make it here.... round 2 on the way. Development happening as I type in Wharton County and extreme SW Ft. Bend County.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Flash Flood Warnings out for Victoria at the moment .... very slow eastward movement of the line but I suspect new FF Warnings are coming out shortly for parts of our extreme western CWA.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
ticka1
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Email from Jeff Lindner on Saturday morning:

Threat for flash flooding increasing.

As is usually the case in these parts...feast or famine. All 4 major climate sites set daily rainfall records yesterday...extremely rare.

Large MCS blasting the coastal bend at this time ahead of the next short wave aloft. I am a little surprised the air mass has recovered quick enough to support this complex, but it has and once again very slow storm motions are doing their thing with excessive rainfall and flash flooding ongoing from Victoria SW to W of CRP. Upper end of MCS from CLL to Wharton moving slowing E with new developing in a SE to NW band from SE of Sugar Land to Columbus...possibly along a low level boundary.

It is very clear we will be at the mercy of such short waves for the next 2-3 days with each likely producing a large slow moving complex. Finer details such as when and where are nearly impossible to determine. Would expect today's complex to once again stabilize the air mass, but low level SE winds over the Rio Grande will quickly recover areas to our west with moisture and good heating and next wave, this should get things going out west tonight.

Main threat will be isolated severe wind gust and flooding/flash flooding. Yesterday most of the area was in a mild drought, and today nearly all of that has been erased. Very moist air mass with PWS of 1.8 inches, slow storm motions, and cell training are leading to the flooding/flash flooding. 2-5 inches of rain fell over much of the area yesterday and flash flood guidance has been greatly reduced. HPC QPF is on little use as these slow moving complexes are producing 2-4 inches an hour under the heavy convection...do feel the moderate HPC flash flood risk is warranted at this time especially for the middle coast and our SW counties. So far the rivers are doing well, but such frequent and widespread rains over time will generate run-off and flood waves. Each complex could produce widespread 2-3 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches.

Suspect about every 8-12 hours we will see a round of storms...models continue to hint at Sunday night with a large MCS coming out of N TX..but there is a lot of time between now and then, for the meso scale to do its thing.
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The rain gauge here at the house shows 5 inches (max) it holds...so don't know if we had more then that....have standing water in the yard. The garden really liked this rain - now just to not get too much and flood it.
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srainhoutx
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Another active day...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING
TEXAS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
724 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
VICTORIA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND VICTORIA FIRE DEPARTMENT
IN VICTORIA TEXAS.

MANY STREETS ACROSS THE COUNTY OF VICTORIA HAVE BEEN INUNDATED WITH
FLASH FLOODING. THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATOR HAS REQUESTED
THAT RESIDENTS OF VICTORIA COUNTY STAY AT HOME DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF MAY 15TH 2010 DUE MANY STREETS ARE IMPASSABLE. THIS
MORNING...EMERGENCY SERVICES ARE OVERWHELMED WITH HIGH WATER
RESCUES.

$$

CORDERO
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
729 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-152300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0001.100515T1229Z-100515T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...
TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
729 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...
LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...WALLER AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE
WEST. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY EVENING`S STORMS. IF THIS
OCCURS...FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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