May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

[Rip76]

Starting to come down now.

[unome]

expanded http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC039-157-201-473-270200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0005.140526T2302Z-140527T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 558 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER HOUSTON. 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...PEARLAND...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...
ROSENBERG...ALVIN...STAFFORD...SOUTH HOUSTON...BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...
WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY...RICHMOND...GALENA PARK...TOMBALL...
JACINTO CITY...JERSEY VILLAGE...MANVEL...BROOKSHIRE AND HUNTERS
CREEK VILLAGE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING THROUGH LOWER SOUTH MAYDE CREEK THAT ARE 2
FEET OUT OF BANKS. BUFFALO BAYOU NEAR KATY IS AT BANKFUL. FLOODING
HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE GRAND PARKWAY AND THE WEST PARK TOLLWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 2946 9525 2945 9596 2983 9601 3006 9583
3012 9555 3002 9529 2980 9517

$$

39

[mckinne63]

Wow! Having to drain the pool and it's still coming down. Got the bbqing done just in time.

[BlueJay]

Reporting 2.33 inches so far and is still coming down!
I guess I need to put away the soaker hose for awhile.

[kayci]

looking very ominous here...

[kayci]

[Houstonkid]

4" for the day in Katy, Mason/Clay area

[txflagwaver]

Nice steady rain..little thunder...little wind...

[unome]

the EAS alerts that Comcast breaks into tv programs with is absolutely unintelligible, hope that gets fixed, whomever's issue it is

[Rip76]

It's just as bad on Uverse as well.
I mean my Weather Band radio sounds like a million bucks compared to this.

[spadilly]

Jimmy Buffett in the Woodlands on Thursday night could be interesting.

Good thing I plan on wearing my board shorts and grass skirt.

[jasons2k]

2.33" here Trees are happy.

[Karen]

Is that it for tonight or are we going to get rain overnight?

[srainhoutx]

Is that it for tonight or are we going to get rain overnight?

Yes we are. The next chance looks to arrive tomorrow. The storms near the Permian Basin should continue to drop SE and will probably develop into another mesoscale convective system reaching the Hill Country during the early morning hours tomorrow. Return flow off the Gulf has returned across S Texas and that should assist further development to our West overnight. While it is almost impossible to determine where the greatest threat for heavy rainfall will set up as we witnessed today across our area, condition appear ripe for more heavy rainfall chances the next several days as the upper low gets closer. I just emptied 4.26 inches of rain out of my gauge. I had hope to grill hamburgers today, but the weather had other plans. The pool filled right to the top and two of my Koi ponds overflowed. It was good to see the forecast bust in the right direction.

[redneckweather]

My rain gauge measure righ at an inch with the first round. Just a light to moderate rain for about 4 hours....a good ground soaker. I will take it.

[djjordan]

And so it begins round 2 entering our northwestern CWA of SE Texas. May be a tricky commute this morning.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXZ163-176-177-195>199-211-212-270900-
GRIMES TX-AUSTIN TX-BURLESON TX-MADISON TX-HOUSTON TX-WALKER TX-
WALLER TX-BRAZOS TX-WASHINGTON TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
230 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN...
WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON...BRAZOS...NORTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...MADISON...NORTHWESTERN WALLER...WEST CENTRAL WALKER...
GRIMES AND BURLESON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 227 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WORTHAM TO NEAR
CAMERON TO WEIR TO NEAR BURNET...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
PER HOUR SHOULD NOT POSE A FLOODING RISK IF ITS CURRENT RATE OF
MOTION CONTINUES...HOWEVER WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE
SITUATION IN THE EVENT IT SLOWS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...MADISONVILLE...
CALDWELL...AUSTONIO...WASHINGTON...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...BEDIAS...
KURTEN...BURTON...WIXON VALLEY...MILLICAN...MIDWAY...ANDERSON...LAKE
SOMERVILLE DAM...KYLE FIELD AND NORMANGEE.

[djjordan]

Flash Flood Watch extended until 7PM this evening......

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND
WHARTON.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE WATCH AREA
MONDAY...LOCALLY RAINFALL BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES FELL OVER
JACKSON AND WHARTON COUNTIES. NORTHERN FORT BEND AND WESTERN
HARRIS COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE CITY OF HOUSTON...HAVE
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE...MANY COUNTIES HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 3 INCHES. WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO COMMENCE THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 3 INCHES COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

* FLASH FLOODING CAN EASILY OCCUR OVER URBANIZED AREAS WHERE
PONDING LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. IF ON
THE ROAD AND ENCOUNTERING WATER ACROSS THE ROADWAY OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN! LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A HIGHER RISK OF FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

[djjordan]

Portions of SE Texas into SW Louisiana lie in the Moderate Risk area for today for Excessive Rainfall potential. Will need to keep an eye on things closely. Already seeing development in and around the Houston area well ahead of the line of storms to the northwest.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif


SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PD AS IT DROPS SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATX
REGION BY WED MRNG. DESPITE ITS SLOW WEAKENING..SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STG CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AS HEIGHT FALLS INTERACT WITH INCREASING PWS WITH BROAD
SLY FLOW OFF THE WRN/CNTL GULF OF MEX. INITIAL SQLN PUSHING
RAPIDLY ACRS CNTL TX AS OF MIDNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY ACRS ERN TX INTO LA WITH STGR PORTION PUSHING TOWARD THE
UPR TX COAST/SRN LA BY TUES MRNG. MODELS SHOW INCREASING 85H
CONVERGENCE ACRS THE WRN GULF TOWARD SW LA TUES EVENING AND WITH
CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS/THICKNESS COOLING ACRS THIS REGION. THIS IS
USUALLY A FAVORABLE PATRN FOR SOME INTENSE CONVECTION WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINS. AT THIS TIME IT WOULD APPEAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS OF 2
TO 3 INCH PLUS WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES
COULD OCCUR OVER THE UPR TX COAST REGION INTO SW LA..WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ALSO PSBL FARTHER N CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL LOW WITH
SLOW MOVING CELLS AROUND THE UPR LOW. THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH QPF MAXIMA NEAR THE ARKLATX..BUT ALL
APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE UPR TX COAST AND SW
LA..WHERE SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE APPEAR TO SHOW HEAVIER
FOCUSED RAINS THERE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FOCUSED CONVERGENT
INFLOW AND HIGH PWS OVER EXPECTED OVER THE UPR TX COAST AND SW
LA...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THAT AREA FOR A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF ERN TX
INTO SW AR/NW LA.

[srainhoutx]

Today offers another complicated forecast. Showers and storms are developing across Metro Houston at this hour ahead of the slowly advancing line near Bryan/College Station. The upper low is spinning near Childress and continues to drift ESE. Stronger storms extend back to Junction at this hour. PW's of +2.0 Inches are in place with the Gulf open for business again after recovering from yesterday's storms. The WPC has placed a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall from the Victoria Crossroads thru Metro Houston into Beaumont/Lake Charles and further E iinto Louisiana. As the morning continues the atmosphere should further destabilize lending to high rainfall rates on top of the 2 to 7 inches that has already fallen. The ground is saturated so additional heavy training storms will lead to flooding issues.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:


Flash Flood Watch extended until 700pm

 

Next round of excessive rainfall heading into SE TX currently. Forward motion is fairly quick on the order of 15-20mph, but back side of line is slowing some and it is possible the line may slow more as it moves deeper into SE TX. Flash flooding will be the main threats as grounds are fairly saturated from excessive rainfall on Monday. Additional rainfall widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is likely over the next 48 hours with isolated totals possibly greater than 6.0 inches.

 

Setup:

Large scale upper level low over NW TX this morning with a splitting jet structure over SE TX. Large MCS ongoing across much of central TX moving into SE TX. Air mass has quickly recovered overnight from yesterday activity and is very moist and unstable this morning. Radar indicates incoming activity has actually increased some in intensity as it has moved into SE TX and encounter better moisture feed. Air mass is nearly saturated from the surface through aloft and this will continue to yield very effective rainfall rates with warm rainfall production. Tropical tap from EPAC tropical system Amanda is also providing additional mid and high level moisture.

 

Given moisture levels (PWS nearing 2.0 inches) the threat for cell training and slowing storm motions flash flooding is the main concern. River flood threat will be increasing also as grounds saturate and run-off from multiple rounds of rainfall occurs.

 

Slow moving upper level system will meander E to ESE and is forecast to be located nearly directly overhead of SE TX Thursday. This pattern will continue to foster several rounds of heavy to excessive rainfall as disturbance rotate around the main storm system.

 

Hydro:

 

San Bernard River: 3-5 inches of rainfall on Monday across the middle and upper basin will produce a rise to near flood stage over the next few days.

 

South Mayde Creek: creek is still overbanks this morning, but is falling.

 

Additional widespread heavy rainfall will produce additional rises on area watersheds today and for the next few days. Some flooding of rivers, creeks, and bayous will be possible.