June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

[Ptarmigan]

I think it could be another stormy night like a couple weeks ago.

[Katdaddy]

Line of slow moving storms never filled in across Central portions of SE TX overnight. Very heavy storms passed to the SW and NE of the Houston area. Radar estimates up to 6" of rain in Jackson County near Victoria. Some isolated showers and storms still possible this morning SE of Houston toward Galveston. Back to hot, humid and partly cloudy skies this afternoon through Thursday before rain chance increase Friday and Saturday.

[jasons2k]

Another .25" here overnight. 1.46" last 2 days.

[wxman57]

The line of storms DID pass through Houston last night, as predicted. However, there were large breaks between the thunderstorm cells, so many areas did not get a lot of rain. It's hard to predict how "filled in" a line of storms will be when it passes. That's particularly true if the storms are moving through at night when there is no afternoon heating to help them along.

[BlueJay]

No rain IMBY last night/this morning.

High & Dry - 7
Wet & wild - 3

You can't fool mother nature.

[jasons2k]

You should get a rain gauge. They're fun. It's worth the $30 or so to get a Stratus bucket gauge, so it's CoCoRas compliant, etc.

I'd join the network, but there's only one spot in my entire yard that is far enough away from the house & trees to be compliant, and that is in the middle of my pool

The spot I picked is pretty good. It's exactly right most of the time. It may be off if there is a lot of gusty wind, but usually not much. Maybe the next house will have a bigger yard so I can join the network and report in...but that also might be in a place like sunny Sarasota too.

[jeff]

Well then, if a microcast model cant get it right 12 hours ahead of an event, then i dont put much stock in any other extended range model. Its amazing to me that with all the technology at a weathermans disposal the forecasts 12 hours ahead of time still cant be right.
the microcast model that david paul showed during the 6pm newscast showed a line of storms coming through houston WITH NO BREAKS IN the line. That model was wrong.

You are right...the model did not get it 100% correct and they often don't, that is why it is called guidance. TV weather folks do not create the "models" they show on air they are just showing what the model is suggesting could happen. Most people are visual and see a solid line of red on the model and think...yep that looks bad...and do not hear the TV guy say this is what the model is showing "might" happen.

Additionally, this time of year the meso scale drives so much of the weather and it is nearly impossible to forecast more than a few hours out. Who saw the 6.0 inches of rainfall in northern Jackson County this morning...?

[redneckweather]

Are y'all realling taking the time to explain things to a troll? Hey Bautista, go get bent.


On another note, I'm glad I missed the storms overnight. My back yard is a swamp. Time for a little drying out time.

[srainhoutx]

Morning update from Jeff:

Upper ridge will build briefly back into the area today and Thursday before breaking down again Friday into the weekend.

Some of the warmest weather so far this summer will be on tap for today and tomorrow with high temperatures likely pushing the mid 90’s at most locations. Fairly dry air mass in place this morning (for June standards) will be replaced by an increase in moisture today as the boundary which crossed the area yesterday morning returns northward as a weak warm front. Humid and hot on Thursday.

Thursday night-Friday:
Upper ridge breaks down and shifts WSW into northern MX under the influence of a strong short wave dropping out of the Rockies and into the southern plains. Air mass over N TX Thursday afternoon will become extremely unstable and expect numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to develop ahead of the approaching shortwave over OK. Storms should grow upscale into an MCS and move SE during the overnight hours. Damaging winds appear to be a high threat along the leading edge of this line of storms. Current models suggest some of this activity possibly reaching our N/NE counties Friday morning with a remnant outflow boundary pushing deeper into the area after sunrise Friday. Not sure if the models are handling the activity on the meso scale very well.

Air mass will heat and become unstable across the area on Friday and expect additional strong thunderstorms to develop across the area in combination with lift from the short wave aloft and any remaining low level boundaries. Given fairly significant forecasted CAPE, a few storms may become severe.

Short wave develops into a close upper low over the southern US over the weekend while ridging attempts to build back eastward from MX. Looks like the ridge may have a tough time fully gaining strong control leaving the region at risk for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms on the seabreeze each day.

[srainhoutx]

We can drop the busted forecast and troll talk. Name calling will not be tolerated...period. You may disagree, but keep it civil folks.

[BlueJay]

Wild!

[djmike]

Thank you Srain!

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center is mentioning the potential need for a Moderate Risk upgrade across portions of our Region...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND FARTHER EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA ON THURSDAY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN ON
THURSDAY. ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
EWD WHILE A STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FARTHER UPSTREAM
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN AZ WILL DEAMPLIFY
AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY.

AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING SWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD
THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...SERN OK...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND WITHIN THIS REGION...AND THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE IN DAY 1 UPDATES.

RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS RESIDING OVER THE WRN GULF
WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH ERN TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO A PORTION OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AS INFLUENCE OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. MEANWHILE...WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WLY
WHICH SHOULD ADVECT PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EWD ABOVE THE
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/ERN TX INTO SRN AR AND LA WITH
2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. AN MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS A PORTION OF OK. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR IT TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD
FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND RETREATING WARM FRONT. WINDS ALOFT
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
INCREASING TO 40 KT. INITIAL MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY TAKE ON
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. WITH TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN
MCS AND CONTINUE ESEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...EVENTUALLY INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND.

[Paul Robison]

Morning update from Jeff:

Upper ridge will build briefly back into the area today and Thursday before breaking down again Friday into the weekend.

Some of the warmest weather so far this summer will be on tap for today and tomorrow with high temperatures likely pushing the mid 90’s at most locations. Fairly dry air mass in place this morning (for June standards) will be replaced by an increase in moisture today as the boundary which crossed the area yesterday morning returns northward as a weak warm front. Humid and hot on Thursday.

Thursday night-Friday:
Upper ridge breaks down and shifts WSW into northern MX under the influence of a strong short wave dropping out of the Rockies and into the southern plains. Air mass over N TX Thursday afternoon will become extremely unstable and expect numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to develop ahead of the approaching shortwave over OK. Storms should grow upscale into an MCS and move SE during the overnight hours. Damaging winds appear to be a high threat along the leading edge of this line of storms. Current models suggest some of this activity possibly reaching our N/NE counties Friday morning with a remnant outflow boundary pushing deeper into the area after sunrise Friday. Not sure if the models are handling the activity on the meso scale very well.

Air mass will heat and become unstable across the area on Friday and expect additional strong thunderstorms to develop across the area in combination with lift from the short wave aloft and any remaining low level boundaries. Given fairly significant forecasted CAPE, a few storms may become severe.

Short wave develops into a close upper low over the southern US over the weekend while ridging attempts to build back eastward from MX. Looks like the ridge may have a tough time fully gaining strong control leaving the region at risk for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms on the seabreeze each day.

What about Eric Berger's weather blog, srainhoutex? Read:

Your sunrise summary of everything you need to know about weather in Houston.







4cast·in·5seconds

Warming up today under mostly sunny skies.

run·down

Houston’s warmest day this year came on June 7, when the high hit 93 degrees.

We’ll probably match that today, and then rise above it on Thursday when the region climbs into the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies. Then it will truly feel like summer in Houston.

The big question is whether Houston will see meaningful rain on Thursday night or Friday. At that point a series of atmospheric disturbances should move southward near, and possibly directly over the upper Texas coast. Given the likely lack of a capping inversion, if these atmospheric systems slide far enough south, this could lead to at least scattered rain showers and possibly even strong thunderstorms, especially for areas north of Houston.


NOAA’s rainfall accumulation forecast shows the bulk of this week’s rain (through Saturday) remaining to the north of the metro area. (Weather Bell)
Depending on the extent of these showers, high temperatures on Friday will range from 90 to 95 degrees.

A slight chance of rain will remain through the weekend as we won’t fully be under the influence of high pressure.

trop·ics

The Atlantic tropics are quiet.

haiku

“93″

Drier air? It means

mornings are quite nice, but days?

They can be quite warm.

final·fact

On this date in 1995 a squall line raced across Southeast Texas. Damaging winds tore the roof of the Houston Community College and produced significant damage in Stafford.


1.) Note higher rain totals are to the n/ne of the Houston Metro. I would think your "strong" & "severe" thunderstorms would be more likely to occur where indicated in the colored areas.
2. note what I have indicated in bold/underline.
3. Do you see something simlar to the 1995 squall line Eric mentions happening thursday and friday, srainhoutex?


UPDATE:

Beaumont WX's AFD is closer to what I think will happen thursday-friday IMHO:


TOMORROW WILL BE GENERALLY BENIGN...THOUGH WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE
OF EVERYTHING...HUMIDITY...CLOUDS...AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
HIGHER AS THERMAL RIDGE TO THE WEST SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. BY
LATE TOMORROW...THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO BE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE TWD THE ARKLATEX. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS/OK THU AM...WITH THIS COMPLEX BEING
AUGMENTED BY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BY THU EVE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SE INTO PARTS OF THE EAST
TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO
EARLY FRI...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SEVERE WINDS...HAS PROMPTED
SPC TO INCLUDE AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A BEAUMONT TO
OPELOUSAS LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
EXACT EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE
EXPECTED MESOSCALE SYSTEMS...BUT THE POTENTIAL DID WARRANT AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN POPS THU NIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

That closer to what you're talking about, srainhoutex?

[Katdaddy]

A significant severe weather event is possible across N, E, and SE TX tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night as a short wave moves into NTX. A possible upgrade to moderate risk in later SPC outlooks later tonight. Excerpt from this afternoon's SPC discussion:

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITHIN THIS REGION...AND THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE IN DAY 1 UPDATES.

[Paul Robison]

A significant severe weather event is possible across N, E, and SE TX tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night as a short wave moves into NTX. A possible upgrade to moderate risk in later SPC outlooks later tonight. Excerpt from this afternoon's SPC discussion:

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITHIN THIS REGION...AND THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE IN DAY 1 UPDATES.

According to Houston NWS AFD discussion better chances still look to be to the north of I-10. They feel these storms may weaken as they approach our metro, Katdaddy. Of course, on Friday morning, it could be another story.

P.S. A moderate upgrade already exists, if you've read the SPC diagram. Here are the current figures:

SIG SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
30 %: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
15 %: Austin, TX...Sherman, TX...Atascocita, TX...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
5 %: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...

By this logic, Dallas and Austin residents have more to worry about than residents of Houston and San Antonio.


UPDATE: Here's Troy Kimmel's weather discussion. (He's the best!):

Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 11 June 2014

…. Stationary Front Southeast of the IH35 Corridor ….
…. Stable / Dry Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Afternoon High Temperatures Warming to Well Above Normal Through Thursday ….
…. Watching Another Upper Air Disturbance/Weak Cold Front Late Thursday Night ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends southward from a surface low pressure area over central Illinois down through western Mississippi and south central Louisiana then westward through the Houston area to south of San Antonio to near Del Rio. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is centered over east and central Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a counter clockwise rotating upper low pressure area is over northern Illinois with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward through the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.

The weakening front to the southeast of the local area will continue to wash out today through tonight with surface winds returning south southeasterly. Upper air high pressure has rebuilt over our area. This upper air high pressure area acts like a “lid” on the atmosphere allowing afternoon high temperatures to warm to well above average. Temperatures over parts of our area west of the IH35 corridor may get to 100 degrees tomorrow when upper level “lid” is strongest.

Another upper air low pressure disturbance and associated weak surface cold front will progress southeastward into the area late tomorrow night into early Friday. Atmospheric model guidance continues to suggest that thunderstorms may develop off to our north through northeast of the local area along the front. While I have my doubt about whether these thunderstorms will affect our local area, it is very possible that we’ll see lightning off to the north and northeast tomorrow night into the predawn hours Friday with the passage of this system.

Sunshine will continue with afternoon high temperatures down a few degrees Friday through the weekend into early next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tomorrow.. then drops to medium to high tomorrow night into early Friday (as it regards thunderstorm and rain chances). My forecast confidence goes back to very high for Friday through the weekend and into the first half of next week.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel


UPDATE:
Here's the CMC model (what I could get of it):




It's got a powerful squall line penciled in to the n/ne of the metro. Still think we'll survive.

[Katdaddy]

Significant severe weather event likely today across Central, N, and E Texas this afternoon into tonight. Northern areas of SE TX will also be in the SPC slight risk area. N, NE, and E Central Texas will be the area of most concern as parameters will be in place for dangerous supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging downburst winds, and a few tornadoes. Currently the severe weather looks to remain N of the Houston-Galveston areas but will need to monitor trends later today. Additional development of strong storms will be possible across SE TX Friday.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Fairly active 24-36 hours expected across portions of TX and SE TX.

Current:

Large thunderstorm complex is ongoing early this morning over southern OK with additional storms extending WSW to southwest of Fort Worth. Storms have shown a weakening trend in the last few hours as would be expected this time of day with overnight cooling at it maximum. Activity is being forced along the SE flank of a SE moving short wave over KS which will continue into the MS valley by this afternoon. Ridge of upper level high pressure which was anchored over the region yesterday is being nudged westward allowing steering flow to turn out of the NW across our region helping to open the region up to upstream storm complexes.

Today:

High resolution models want to bring upstream storm complex over SE OK into our NE counties with a possible outflow boundary interacting with the seabreeze late this afternoon helping to spark some thunderstorms. Not sure the ridge has given enough ground just yet for as much activity as the high resolution models are showing. While afternoon temperatures push the low to mid 90’s resulting in “extensive” surface based instability think there is still going to be some subsidence from the ridge to our west that will need to be overcome especially SW of Houston. Not overly confident in any of the models nor solutions for this afternoon as much will be driven on the meso scale especially to the north and east of Houston.

Tonight/Friday morning:

Of greater concern is the current short wave over AZ/NM this morning which will move eastward today and help flatten and break down the northern and eastern side of the ridge over SE TX this afternoon and tonight. High temperatures pushing nearly 100 over central TX this afternoon will yield extreme CAPE values of over 4500 J/kg and expect significant development of severe thunderstorms in this super-heated and unstable air mass by late afternoon. Initial storm mode will likely be supercells with a “significant damaging hail” threat and possibly a tornado especially if any W/E laying outflow boundary currently seen on the Fort Worth radar push SSW into central TX this afternoon and help back low level winds to the ESE or SE. Given the very high CAPE environment I would not rule out an isolated strong tornado, but the main initial threat looks to be large hail possibly over 2.0 inches in diameter.

Storms will grow upscale into a large thunderstorm complex this evening extending from NW TX into C TX as cold pools from downdrafts congeal. Severe threat will transition from large hail and tornadoes to a damaging wind threat along the leading edge of the line of storms. Will go ahead and bring this line into SE TX from the NW late this evening. Nearly all meso scale models show the line weakening about half way through the area and once again it is nearly impossible to determine on the meso scale where the weakening trend will begin and just how far the storms will make it into the area. Best estimate is that areas north of I-10 may be affected between 900pm and 300am.

Friday afternoon:

Friday morning complex of storms will play a big role in what will transpire Friday afternoon. Meso models want to leave a ESE to WNW boundary from about High Island to Columbus which fires off storms with heating Friday afternoon. This boundary is the outflow boundary from what happens tonight and I doubt the models have the correct position this far out. A strong complex tonight with a strong cold pool would push the boundary to the coast or offshore with a weaker complex and weaker cold pool likely holding any boundary closer or north of I-10. Air mass once again looks to become fairly unstable Friday afternoon so storms could once again become strong to severe if morning cloud cover is not too extensive to reduce heating.

Weekend:

Mexican ridge will build back into the region reducing rain chances to 20% along the afternoon inland moving seabreeze front. Could argue to go 30% as the ridge does not really build strongly overhead and a weakness remains in/near the region into early next week.

 




 

 

 

[srainhoutx]

I will not be surprised to see a Moderate Risk Upgrade from the Storm Prediction Center at 1730Z today across portions of the Hill County/E/SE Texas (N of I-10) extending E into Louisiana. As Jeff mentioned, we need to watch for development later today around Junction into Austin/Waco and possibly College Station on E toward Lufkin and just S of Shreveport.

[srainhoutx]

No Upgrade with the 1630Z Outlook, but the SPC is still considering an update to a Moderate Risk later today. The Damaging wind and Hail chances look rather impressive across Central Texas later this afternoon. It is also noteworthy that the latest 12Z shorter range meso guidance is suggesting a squall line developing and approaching Metro Houston after 7:00 PM tonight. We will see.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS EASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL...BUT MORE ISOLATED...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
ACROSS PARTS OF MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF AN MCS/TRAILING COLD POOL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX/FAR SOUTHERN OK LATE
THIS MORNING. INITIAL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WHAT MAY BE AN UPSCALE DEVELOPING QUASI-LINEAR
COMPLEX AND/OR AN MCV ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX INTO LA AND PERHAPS
OTHER PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE PRECEDING
AIR MASS ACROSS THE CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
WARM/DESTABILIZE COINCIDENT WITH AMPLE HEATING AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. DAMAGING WINDS/BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE VICINITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
IN CONJUNCTION WITH RESIDUAL INFLUENCES OF EARLY DAY
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY
THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX...WITH ATTENDANT
STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES...NOTED TO BE MOVING EASTWARD
OVER NM AT MID-MORNING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE...WITH
STORMS LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE AND ADDITIONALLY POSING A DAMAGING
WIND RISK AS THEY SPREAD GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. PENDING
EARLY AFTERNOON TRENDS AND GREATER CONFIDENCE IN A PEAK RISK
CORRIDOR...AREAS SUCH AS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK /MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/ WITH THE 20Z
DAY 1 UPDATE.