June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

[srainhoutx]

Frequent cloud to ground lightning now in NW Harris County as the storms develop rapidly to my SW.

[unome]

crazy windy here, will be thankful for the rain when it gets here though

[srainhoutx]

1.68 inches so far near Addicks Reservoir and a little over .50 inches in my gage in the past 15 minutes.

[Snowman]

the rain formed a circle around my house and then moved east I guess today just isn't my day. crossing my fingers for later

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

TXC157-201-231900-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0032.140623T1755Z-140623T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 1253 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM ABOUT SUGARLAND TO
ALDINE AND ANOTHER INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...STAFFORD...BELLAIRE...JERSEY
VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...SPRING BRANCH WEST...MISSION
BEND...TOWN WEST...MEADOWS...ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS...SPRING
VALLEY...GREATER GREENSPOINT...ADDICKS PARK TEN...FIRST COLONY...
PECAN GROVE AND ALDINE.

[Katdaddy]

Skies are dark along with gusty winds in downtown Houston.

[kayci]

6 hour drive home from Ardmore, Okla. yesterday, 4 hours spent driving in rain/storms. *ugh* tiring.

[Katdaddy]

Torrential wind blown rain ongoing across downtown. Looks like a tropical storm.

[Texaspirate11]

Torrential wind blown rain ongoing across downtown. Looks like a tropical storm.

Bring it home with you to the bay area.

[Texaspirate11]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 1253 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM ABOUT SUGARLAND TO
ALDINE AND ANOTHER INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...STAFFORD...BELLAIRE...JERSEY
VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...SPRING BRANCH WEST...MISSION
BEND...TOWN WEST...MEADOWS...ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS...SPRING
VALLEY...GREATER GREENSPOINT...ADDICKS PARK TEN...FIRST COLONY...
PECAN GROVE AND ALDINE.

LAT...LON 3004 9535 2947 9556 2961 9572 3002 9566

[srainhoutx]

No real changes via the 12Z suite of guidance. Our Region appears to be covered by a general weakness between two areas of high pressure to our E and another to our W. The RAP/NAM/4km WRF are suggesting a storm complex fires again early tomorrow across Central Texas and slowly sags S. The surge of tropical moisture from the wave should arrive tomorrow enhancing chances along the Coast for better rain chances for you folks S of Houston. A fly in the ointment could come for EPAC disturbance 95E near the Pacific Coast of Mexico and possibly some additional mid/upper level moisture being pulled across Texas.

[BlueJay]

WET & WILD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A clap or two of thunder and enough gusty wind to blow down a potted bamboo & a cordyline

We received 1.45 inches of rain during lunch! This is more rain than we have received all month long.

Total rain received in June 2014 according to my gauge is 1.91 inches.

I am very happy indeed!

Wet & Wild - 6
High & Dry - 17

I hope everyone gets some of the goodness today.

[Rip76]

I guess I can put my sprinklers out...

[Texaspirate11]

I think Houston hogged all the rain
so far, nada (AGAIN) by the bay...we shall see.

[kayci]

I guess there's a cockroach dome over Alvin again?

[jasons2k]

.84" IMBY from the storms earlier today. What a difference a few days make. Just last week the NWS was gloom & doom saying it was going to be a dry rest-of-the month, unusual for June, and amending their forecast discussions with low rainfall tallies.

Now they are amending their forecast discussions with climate data referencing the lack of 95-degree days.

[JamieP]

I guess there's a cockroach dome over Alvin again?

kayci, I think us folks down south will have plenty of goodness as the week goes on - at least that's my hope!

[Ptarmigan]

I guess there's a cockroach dome over Alvin again?

The thunderstorms are the the RAID for the cockroach dome.

[Katdaddy]

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast and move inland today. However tomorrow through Thursday there will be the potential for areas of very heavy rains with some spots picking up 2-4" which could lead to localized flooding.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Ingredients coming together to produce several days of scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Upper level ridges are located over northern MX and across the SE US this morning with a “break” or “weakness” in between the ridges over much of TX. This shear or trough axis is resulting in a thermodynamically favorable environment for thunderstorm development with low convective (trigger) temperatures in the low to mid 80’s and no capping aloft. Additionally, a stream of mid and high level moisture is pouring NNE from the eastern Pacific Ocean trapped in this weakness between the high pressure ridges. A surge of deep tropical moisture is quickly arriving on the TX coast this morning with GPS data showing PWS values pushing 2.0-2.1 inches from S TX northward into the coastal bend…which is slightly higher than models were forecasting. The high PWS alone with weak capping would support high rain chances, but couple that with weak short wave roaming across the state within the broad shear axis adds even more lift for widespread rainfall.


On the meso scale a weak boundary is noted both in radar images and data analysis on the theta E profiles extending from roughly Waco to north of Fort Polk, LA where recently thunderstorms have developed. Out west across SW TX into the rolling plains of west TX (Del Rio to east of Midland) an ESE moving MCS (thunderstorm complex) appears to be increasing in intensity some and supported by an eastward moving short wave. Locally, northward moving showers have crossed eastern Galveston Island this morning and moved inland around Matagorda Bay as a result of the increasing tropical air mass moving northward off the western Gulf.

Given all the above triggers (near northern boundary, approaching SW TX short wave, and inland moving seabreeze front) coupled with a few hours of daytime heating and expect numerous thunderstorms to result. Should start to see development near the coast/just inland in the next few hours with a rapid expansion of storms near area-wide as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80’s around 1000am-noon. Not sure if any of the meso models are going to get much correct over the next few days as they were too dry yesterday. For what it is worth the HRRR seems to like the US 59 corridor today and actually keeps our northern counties fairly dry.

Wednesday-Thursday:

Models are attempting to peg the area pretty good with high QPF during this window as deep tropical moisture will be in place (PWS 2.0-2.2 inches). Think we will see a transition to late night/early morning development near the coast/offshore as low level speed convergence is maximized in the midnight-300am range and this tends to be a favored development time in such tropical air masses. Storms will develop offshore and near the coast and spread inland during the morning hours possibly helped along by incoming weak short waves aloft which currently are not seen. Hard to pin point where and when the greatest activity will occur as the weather over the next 3-4 days will be nearly completely meso scale driven along outflow boundaries. TX TECH WRF shows a good bit of development Wednesday with some slow moving clustering of storms over our central counties along the US 59 and I-10 corridors.

Rainfall:

Air mass will be certainly capable of excessive rainfall given a near saturated air column and high PW air mass. Storm motions will also becoming increasing slow with weakening steering winds aloft and much of their forward motions being driven by outflow boundaries. Concern will be with any cell training of overall storm organization (such as a slowing moving line of storms or slow moving MCS) which would be very capable of putting down several inches of rainfall in a short amount of time. 3-hr flash flood guidance ranges from 2.0-4.0 inches across much of the area. Slow moving organized storms will be capable of exceeding the flash flood guidance values across the area and generating run-off. Additional concern will be high hourly rainfall rates (1-3 inches) in the urban areas which will quickly result in street flooding.

Storm totals not including yesterday will likely average 1-3 inches with isolated amounts upwards of 6 inches by the end of the week. Could see a few isolated locations (as seen on Sunday SW of Fort Worth) pick up 8-10 inches. This air mass and pattern in place is very much capable of producing some really big rainfall totals in a short amount of time under slow moving strong thunderstorms.