July 2014: Stalled Front/ Rain Chnaces To End July

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sambucol
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I'm wondering what kind of winter we will have because this summer hasn't been bad at all.
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srainhoutx
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The Global computer models as well as the shorter range meso guidance is suggesting a shear axis/inverted trough sliding W along he Central and NW Gulf Coast where a weakness develops along the Eastern periphery of the upper ridge expected to build across the Southern and Central Rockies. Showers and storms may well increase as this feature moves W along Coastal Louisiana and Texas in the mid week time frame.
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srainhoutx
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The frontal boundary that brought our pleasant weather yesterday is retreating N and could bring some isolated showers and storms today as the warm front moves further inland. Warm temperatures and higher dew point should allow the heat index to rise above the 100 to 105F mark Monday/Tuesday before the inverted trough moves W into the area Wednesday into Thursday increasing rain chances. Next weekend looks hot as the Upper Ridge builds across Texas.

On a personal note, I will be traveling mid week with Dr. Neil Frank to a Weather Conference on the East Coast. It will be good to get a break and visit with my friends Wes Junker, Paul Kocin and spending time with 'Doc' Neil.
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srainhoutx wrote:The frontal boundary that brought our pleasant weather yesterday is retreating N and could bring some isolated showers and storms today as the warm front moves further inland. Warm temperatures and higher dew point should allow the heat index to rise above the 100 to 105F mark Monday/Tuesday before the inverted trough moves W into the area Wednesday into Thursday increasing rain chances. Next weekend looks hot as the Upper Ridge builds across Texas.

On a personal note, I will be traveling mid week with Dr. Neil Frank to a Weather Conference on the East Coast. It will be good to get a break and visit with my friends Wes Junker, Paul Kocin and spending time with 'Doc' Neil.
Thanks for all the updates, and enjoy your trip!
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The Winter 2014-2015 forecast. Looks to be cold for Texas. 8-) :twisted: :lol:

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I was just posting this on another forum. There is "supposed" to be a cold front headed our way the first week in August. I was just thinking out loud about this and it just feels like we "did" this back in 2004. I could be way wrong, but I am just musing.
Ntwx:
Nothing new of late to add. Back to July heat, then we begin August with a cold front and unusual cool air. Trough will be centered over the Lakes but according the ENS the anomaly departures will be greatest similar to the recent blast.


Man, this is really looking weirdly like 2004. What I mean is ( I swear I alluded to this before..LOL) that we had an August cold front come all the way through to Houston. It broke records too. I remember my beautiful bride and I standing in front of Lake Houston and nary a sweat to be had in those pictures. Now, Larry Cosgrove says he doubts this next cold front will come through Houston, but who knows.


See August 13-16 of 2004. See how low the temperatures were.


August 13 64 - 2004
August 14 65 - 2004
August 15 61 - 2004
August 16 63 - 2004

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_aug

What does this mean? I have no idea. I am just a guy trying to make a living. It just feels eerie, that is all.
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tireman4 wrote:I was just posting this on another forum. There is "supposed" to be a cold front headed our way the first week in August. I was just thinking out loud about this and it just feels like we "did" this back in 2004. I could be way wrong, but I am just musing.
Ntwx:
Nothing new of late to add. Back to July heat, then we begin August with a cold front and unusual cool air. Trough will be centered over the Lakes but according the ENS the anomaly departures will be greatest similar to the recent blast.


Man, this is really looking weirdly like 2004. What I mean is ( I swear I alluded to this before..LOL) that we had an August cold front come all the way through to Houston. It broke records too. I remember my beautiful bride and I standing in front of Lake Houston and nary a sweat to be had in those pictures. Now, Larry Cosgrove says he doubts this next cold front will come through Houston, but who knows.


See August 13-16 of 2004. See how low the temperatures were. Last night was quite nice, not too hot.


August 13 64 - 2004
August 14 65 - 2004
August 15 61 - 2004
August 16 63 - 2004

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_aug

What does this mean? I have no idea. I am just a guy trying to make a living. It just feels eerie, that is all.
2004 had a developing El Nino, a weak Modoki El Nino. It was also a wet year.
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Would it be reasonable to assume that one (and soon to be two) cool fronts making it into at least North Texas in Late July/August means we are on pace for another cold winter? Or do the two not necessarily correlate.
Paul Robison

Hi Everybody

From Brooks Garner:

"The only relief from the heat may be a few scattered showers on Tuesday and Wednesday."

Does Brooks only mean little rain showers or are we looking at the kind of storms with the usual issues:
1.) slow moving with heavy downpours?
2.)strong, gusty winds
3.) dangerous and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning?
Not severe storms, mind you. Just irritating ones.
Anybody know?
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My guess would be more of what we have been getting lately. Hit/miss downpours
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Morning Update from Jeff:

Upper ridge centered over eastern NM this morning while an upper low is centered near Mobile, AL.

Upper air pattern favors a northerly flow aloft across the region while at the surface a weak onshore is present which is helping to keep a fairly dry and hot pattern in place. Seabreeze boundary was able to fire off a few storms yesterday afternoon and high resolution models suggest a similar pattern this afternoon. Heat index values will be nearing the 108 criteria advisory level, but does not look currently widespread enough. Yesterday afternoon only a couple of locations went to 108 and we need two afternoons in a row of widespread 108 for an advisory.

Forecast over the next 48 hours will hinge on the westward movement of the upper level low over Mobile this morning. Water vapor images show this system tracking westward and this should continue as the NM ridge builds slightly toward N TX keeping a NE to ENE flow in place over the Gulf coast. While models have been pinging Wednesday as the greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms, the upper low still looks east of our area tomorrow placing SE TX in the subsident western side of the circulation. Think isolated storms will be possible on the seabreeze with maybe some enhancement from any vort max rotating WSW out of LA.

Best rain chances may come on Thursday (30%) and this is somewhat dependent on the upper low moving inland over SE TX. Should the low shear out over the NW Gulf, then rain chances would be lower.

Upper ridge builds Friday-Monday with potential for surface temperatures to reach 100 degrees. Heat index values may once again flirt with 108 and this period does stand an chance of an advisory.

TD # 2:
Tropical depression struggling over the central Atlantic midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. After looking somewhat healthy yesterday, overnight deep convection has weakened in the face of dry air and the surface circulation has been difficult to locate. The air mass ahead of the depression looks fairly hostile with strong upper level wind shear and dry air. Most guidance indicates the system weakening and not becoming a tropical storm and this seems logical. With such a shallow system, will follow the southern edge of the fairly tight guidance clustering with more steering from the easterly trades. The system should dissipate in the next 72 hours if not sooner.
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I see some interest in what the Fall/Winter pattern may hold for us and I wanted to spend a moment discussing the potential pattern that could develop if the expected weak to moderate El Nino does develop.

Typically as El Nino become more obvious in the September/October/November time frame we tend to see an increase in precipitation across the Eastern Pacific spreading NE across Mexico and Texas as well as portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. That moisture typically comes from increased tropical activity across the EPAC that begins to develop and move NW as the Westerly trade winds begin. As we have seen early this summer across the EPAC, tropical cyclones tend to move W within the Easterly predominate trade wind flow away from Mexico and dissipate. As Fall approaches during a developing El Nino, one tends to expect more land falling tropical cyclones across NW Mexico and the Baja Areas spreading mid and upper moisture across Mexico and Texas as the fall cold fronts begin. Many notable heavy rainfall and flooding events have happened in the past and many will remember Hurricane Rosa (1994) brought tremendous flash flooding across the Houston area. The seasonal CFSv2 outlooks do favor a 'wetter' pattern as we enter August, September, October and even extending into November.
07222014 ASO Precip Anom usPrecSeaInd1.gif
07222014 SON Precip Anom usPrecSeaInd2.gif
Regarding the Medium/Long Range that takes us to the end of July into August, we are witnessing tropical cyclones across the Western Pacific and these systems tend to re curve and affect the pattern downstream or across the Central and Eastern US. The global guidance is advertising another pattern change as we end July and enter August with a stout West Coast Ridge and deep upper low developing near the Great Lakes that carves out a deep trough across the Central and Eastern US not to much unlike the pattern we witness last week.
07212014 CPC 610temp_new.gif
07212014 CPC 814temp_new.gif
Such a pattern usually sets the stage for upper air disturbance riding SE in the NW flow aloft and could enhance our rain chances once again. The dog days of summer may be shorten to this week before the pattern changes and offers some cooler days with cloud cover and increasing rain chances.

As a teaser for the upcoming Winter, the very long range trends tend to favor above normal moisture and below normal temperatures. I have discussed with a couple of our Pro Mets that a Fall and Winter Outlook thread may be useful and we will address this in the days ahead.
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We had a very heavy tropical thundershower this evening and picked up .65" in 20 minutes. Immediately following the thundershower were the most amazing were the crepuscular rays.
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Weird little storm rolling in...
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srainhoutx wrote:I see some interest in what the Fall/Winter pattern may hold for us and I wanted to spend a moment discussing the potential pattern that could develop if the expected weak to moderate El Nino does develop.

Typically as El Nino become more obvious in the September/October/November time frame we tend to see an increase in precipitation across the Eastern Pacific spreading NE across Mexico and Texas as well as portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. That moisture typically comes from increased tropical activity across the EPAC that begins to develop and move NW as the Westerly trade winds begin. As we have seen early this summer across the EPAC, tropical cyclones tend to move W within the Easterly predominate trade wind flow away from Mexico and dissipate. As Fall approaches during a developing El Nino, one tends to expect more land falling tropical cyclones across NW Mexico and the Baja Areas spreading mid and upper moisture across Mexico and Texas as the fall cold fronts begin. Many notable heavy rainfall and flooding events have happened in the past and many will remember Hurricane Rosa (1994) brought tremendous flash flooding across the Houston area. The seasonal CFSv2 outlooks do favor a 'wetter' pattern as we enter August, September, October and even extending into November.

Regarding the Medium/Long Range that takes us to the end of July into August, we are witnessing tropical cyclones across the Western Pacific and these systems tend to re curve and affect the pattern downstream or across the Central and Eastern US. The global guidance is advertising another pattern change as we end July and enter August with a stout West Coast Ridge and deep upper low developing near the Great Lakes that carves out a deep trough across the Central and Eastern US not to much unlike the pattern we witness last week.

Such a pattern usually sets the stage for upper air disturbance riding SE in the NW flow aloft and could enhance our rain chances once again. The dog days of summer may be shorten to this week before the pattern changes and offers some cooler days with cloud cover and increasing rain chances.

As a teaser for the upcoming Winter, the very long range trends tend to favor above normal moisture and below normal temperatures. I have discussed with a couple of our Pro Mets that a Fall and Winter Outlook thread may be useful and we will address this in the days ahead.
El Nino Falls and Winter have seen floods in Texas.

Fall/Winter
December 1913
November 1940
November 1985
December 1991
October 1994
October 2002
October 2006

The December 1913 and 1991 were very widespread floods from heavy rains that happened over a large area. I would consider those two to be analogs.

December 1913

Code: Select all

1913 - 7 AM Dec 1 to 7 AM Dec 5, 1913 - Widespread heavy rain with 15.50 in. center at San Marcos, 13.80 in. at Bertram, 13.60 in. at Somerville, 11.80 in. at Waco, 11.70 in. at Kaufman - Obviously a classic El Nino year - rainfall totals 20 to 25 in. had fallen in the previous 3 months in the area, and water stood in the fields between storms. 

Very likely a long wave stalled over west Texas or New Mexico Dec 1-5 and sent a series of storms around its southern periphery.

The Colorado and Brazos Rivers merged below IH-10 to the Gulf because of the very widespread heavy rain, no flood-control reservoirs on the Colorado or Brazos River, and debris dams on the Colorado and Brazos Rivers. 

The Colorado River dam was from river mile 28 above Bay City to river mile 52 just below Wharton - The dam wasn't successfully blasted out by the Corps of Engineers until between 1925 and 1929.

There were 180 drownings - Water was waist deep in downtown Bay City - The Colorado River went over the right bank above Columbus and made an island of the town.
Brazos River -
 near Highbank - 42.0' Dec 1913
 near Bryan (State Hwy 21) - 61' Dec 5, 1913
 near Hempstead - 66.1' Dec 8, 1913
 at Richmond - 61.2' Dec 10, 1913
 at Rosharon - 56.4' - Dec 11, 1913

Colorado River -
 at Bastrop - 53.3' Dec 4, 1913
 at Smithville - 47.4' Dec 4, 1913 
 above LaGrange - 56.4' Dec 5, 1913
 at Columbus - 51.6' Dec 6, 1913 (river split above town and made into island)
 at Wharton - 51.9' Dec 8, 1913
 near Bay City - 56.1' Dec 10, 1913
December 1991

Code: Select all

1991 - Dec 18 to 23, 1991 - Christmas Flood - A stalled long wave Dec 18th over Arizona extended into the Sonoran Desert of northern Mexico. The upper low was reflected at the surface along the Arizona/Mexico border. A series of cold air masses pushed from the Pacific Northwest across the Central Plains into the southeastern U.S.

A cold-air-induced surface high was centered over Georgia. A stationary front in central Texas marked the southern periphery of the cold air masses moving across the Central Plains. At low levels, clockwise flow around the southeastern high brought a long fetch of very warm moist air across the Gulf, across the Texas Coastal Bend, and into central Texas as a low-level jet. The weather station at Corpus Christi measured 850 mph winds of 60 to 70 knots from about 160 to 170 degrees for the duration of the storm. The low-level jet slammed into the stationary front across central Texas as a trigger mechanism.

At upper levels, the long wave in the west induced a water vapor plume from the eastern Pacific across Mexico into Texas. Tremendous rain and flooding occurred at and south of the confluence of the upper vapor plume, the low-level jet, and the surface stationary front. The heaviest rain was 16 to 18 in. on an area from Llano to Bandera to Boerne. The 6-in. isohyetal extended from the Red River north of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex - to near Coleman - to between Bracketville and Uvalde - to near Corpus Christi - to near Palestine - to the Red River.

This was not a historic event in terms of large rainfall totals. But in terms of total rain volume that fell from the sky in one event, this certainly was one of the largest in Texas recorded history, if not the largest. Certainly it rivals Hurricane Beulah, the June 1935, Hurricane Alice in 1954, and the June 1987 floods.

Record flooding moved down the San Gabriel and Little Rivers into the Brazos River above Bryan. The Brazos River was 5 mi wide west of Bryan and College Station. The Navasota River was well over 1 mi wide in Grimes and Brazos Counties. A huge lake over 10 mi long by 10 mi wide was created above the confluence of the Navasota and Brazos Rivers above Washington on the Brazos State Park. High areas were above the water, but most areas flooded.

Downstream, the Brazos River and Oyster Creek merged as the Brazos River flowed over the left floodplain near Harris Reservoir. Thousands of previously unsuspecting home owners were flooded as Oyster Creek became several miles wide in Brazoria County. Residential flooding was widespread above Simonton to the Gulf in Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties. In the Valley Lodge Subdivision near Simonton, most of the 200 homes flooded, some a half mile from the river. Five-hundred homes suffered serious flood damage in Brazoria County. Two-hundred forty-five of 250 homes flooded in Holiday Lakes Estates between East Columbia and Angleton. 

Flooding was disastrous also in the Colorado River drainage. Very high flows down the Pedernales and Colorado Rivers into the Highland Lakes system put a tremendous amount of storage into them. The problem was, managers could not release water from Lake Travis because disastrous floodwaters were flowing from Walnut, Onion, and all the other creeks flowing into the Colorado River below Lake Travis. Onion Creek at Hwy 183 crested at 30.50 ft, a record since a recording gage was installed March 1976. The Pedernales River severely flooded and damaged LBJ National Park at Stonewall. Flow just seeped over the stone wall at the Johnson Family Cemetery.

The Lower Colorado River Authority could do nothing but store all the very high inflow. Lake Travis quickly rose to a record elevation of 710.44 ft Dec 26, 1991. Nearly 400 homes flooded around Lake Travis with up to 22 ft of water over the lowest slabs.

Downstream, a few homes flooded near Bastrop as the Colorado River crested at a record 37.48 ft. Between Bastrop and Smithville, the Hidden Valley Estates, the Doty River Estates, and the Pecan Shores subdivisions had several tens of homes flooded up to nearly 9 ft. In LaGrange, the Fritsch Auf subdivision had over 10 homes flooded up to 6 ft.

Two homes flooded in Columbus. Downstream, 15 homes flooded up to 2 to 3 ft in Wharton. Much worse flooding was spared because the flooding escaped over the left floodplain upstream near Garwood into a widespread area of farmland.

The Guadalupe River had severe flooding. Two homes flooded near Cuero, and downstream near Thomaston in the River Haven subdivision, three homes flooded. 

In Victoria, eight city blocks of the Greens Addition in the west part flooded, and also the city park, zoo, and golf course. Downstream, the Guadalupe and San Antonio Rivers were several miles wide near their confluence near Tivoli. Some ranchers would feed their cattle by boat on floodwaters into June.

1991 was an El Nino year. This flood would be followed by a series of floods a week or 10 days apart into late May or early June. Emergency spillways on every flood-control reservoir on the Brazos River would be spilling 2 to 3 ft by mid-March. Water stood in the fields between storms from late December into early June in many areas, mainly in the Brazos and Colorado River drainages below Austin to the Gulf.

The Edwards aquifer would crest at a record 703.2 ft elevation June 14, 1992. 
Little River - 
 near Rockdale - 38.34' Dec 21, 1991

 San Gabriel River -
 near Rockdale - 35.74' Dec 21, 1991 (39,000 cfs)

 Brazos River -
 near Bryan - 43.93' Dec 23, 1991 (163,000 cfs)
 at Washington 48.00' Dec 26, 1991 

 Navasota River -
 near Easterly - 27.22' Dec 22, 1991 (61,800 cfs)
 near Bryan - 19.97' Dec 23, 1991 (66,600 cfs)

 Brazos River - 
 near Hempstead - 53.00' Dec 28, 1991 (116,000 cfs)
 at Richmond - 49.68' Jan 1, 1992 (119,000 cfs)
 near Rosharon - 51.89' Jan 3, 1992 (82,700 cfs)

 San Bernard River -
 near Boling - 30.19' (8,890 cfs)

 Pedernales River -
 near Fredericksburg - 32.09' Dec 20, 1991 (49,900 cfs)
 near Johnson City - 21.86' Dec 21, 1991 (89,000 cfs)

 Onion Creek - 
 near Driftwood - 15.99' Dec 20, 1991 (18,650 cfs)
 at U.S. Hwy 183 - 30.50' Dec 21, 1991 (44,200 cfs)

 Walnut Creek -
 at Webberville Rd - 26.99' Dec 20, 1991 (10,200 cfs)

Colorado River - 
 at Bastrop - 37.48' Dec 22, 1991 (79,600 cfs)
 above LaGrange - 43.32' Dec 23, 1991 (88,200 cfs)
 at Wharton - 45.31' Dec 27, 1991 (61,900 cfs)
 near Bay City - 38.90' Dec 27, 1991 (69,600 cfs)

 Guadalupe River -
 at Gonzales - 35.01' Dec 22, 1991 (flood stage 20') 
 near Cuero - 37.68' Dec 24, 1991 (72,200 cfs)
 at Victoria - 30.13' Dec 25, 1991 (61,500 cfs)

 San Antonio River -
 near Elmendorf - 39.06' Dec 22, 1991 (19,300 cfs)
 near Falls City - 19.29' Dec 23, 1991 (20,200 cfs)
 at Goliad - 41.58' Dec 25, 1991 (27,500 cfs)
http://floodsafety.com/texas/USGSdemo/date.htm
http://floodsafety.com/texas/USGSdemo/patton.htm
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/houflood.html
http://www.tcrfc.org/wp-content/media/05Flood.pdf
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Awful storm going through the city right now. Drove through in it on my way to work. Blinding rainfall and lightning and thunder is pretty intense as well.
NAM 4KM today is a bit more aggressive than the other models as it has quite a bit of coverage for our area for storms as a dying MCS to our north spits out an outflow boundary helping trigger thunderstorms this afternoon as that low in LA slowly retrogrades our way.
Either way, enjoy the showers today and the small chance tomorrow to cool you off. Things are looking hot going into this weekend and next week (EURO has it a bit hotter as the High is more over us, GFS not quite following suite). Luckily though, it should be short lived as a nice trough digs in and the high moves back out to the west and we'll be once again near the tail end of that front should set up a weakness to not only bring the temps down ever so slightly, but bring in rain chances as well.

Happy Hump Day, y'all! :D
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Pouring in Alvin for well over an hour now! Can't get anything done.......
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1.65" of rain this morning at my house in Westbury.
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1.20" in League City this morning.
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Dear Moderators:
Can you analyze this HGX disco from 435 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 for me? (Drama free, I promise!)

DISCUSSION...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS
TO THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE BOUNDARY WAS
RATHER DIFFUSE BUT AT 4 AM LOOKED TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN KBPT AND
KJAS TO BETWEEN KUTS AND KLFK. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS PICKED UP BY THE MODELS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.

A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR AND OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN
SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES OVER THE INLAND AREAS MAINLY FROM THE
HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH MESO-SCALE
PROCESSES MAY THROW A WRENCH INTO THAT EQUATION. (it sure seems like it did, huh?) AS OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

Here's what I'm curious about:

WITH THE UPPER LOW SHEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME ISOLATED AND THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS.
UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR INLAND AREAS BOTH DAYS BUT WILL BECOME MORE COMMON
OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE FAR INLAND AREAS MAY REACH TO AROUND 100
DURING THIS PERIOD.

Either of you guys see the upper low shearing out like they do?

P.S: the aforementioned lightning hit my car and shorted out the electrical system. Probably cost me money I don't have to get it fixed. Just thought you'd like to know.
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