August 2014 - Showers/Storms Possible To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

1 km Rapid Scan visible imagery suggests that convection may be attempting to develop on the Western side of the circulation. Wind shear is still an issue, but as 98L gets a bit closer to South Texas, conditions may improve a touch before it moves inland tonight. There is just enough time over water or deep convection for this disturbance to more than a curiosity. Hopefully some rain can spread inland were we need it tonight and tomorrow.

[Andrew]

98L doesn't look impressive. Still looking at 20-30kts of southwest shear in most of the western parts of the gulf. Most of the convection is well Northeast of the center and quickly dying off. Multiple outflow boundaries shown by radar is also indicating this system is having trouble getting anything going. A little bit of convection is bubbling up closer to the center but the system is getting close to land. Luckily as this system continues progressing west SE Texas should begin seeing a southern flow return along with higher Pwat values.

[wxman57]

Not enough convection near the center for an upgrade. Recon didn't tell us anything we don't already know from the numerous obs out there in the Gulf(as expected).

[davidiowx]

At this rate we will be extremely lucky to see some measurable widespread rainfall from it. Guess it's on to waiting for next week.

[tireman4]

Be patient. Rains may come when this system moves inland. We shall see.

[BlueJay]

I'm hoping you are right tireman4. Otherwise I will close the month of August 2014 with a whopping 0.09 inches of rain!
But it has been a cool-ish month.

[Andrew]

Keep an eye on tomorrow and possibly Friday too. Some of the Hi-res models are beginning to show some widely scattered storms once the flow changes around. Here is the Texas Tech WRF's take on things:

[srainhoutx]

Sea/Bay breeze is beginning to fire up. Also there is additional storms developing S of lake Charles heading ENE towards the Upper Texas Coast.

[tireman4]

From David Paul's Facebook page:

Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on it's way home after investigating the disturbance in the Gulf. Strongest winds were only about 23 mph so not upgrading it at this time. Were getting a few passing showers and thunderstorms along and south of I-10 to the coast. Rain chances expected to increase later in the week and weekend as the system sends more moisture our way. We'll show you what to expect on 11 News at 4-5 & 6.

Edit: This is my 1,000 post. Woo Hoo me. Ok, nevermind. LOL

[kayci]

Cockroach dome over Alvin!

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

USAF aircraft has been investigating the area of low pressure off the TX coast early this afternoon and their data along with numerous surface observations over the NW Gulf indicate that the system currently lacks enough organization to be declared a tropical depression.

Visible satellite images show a circulation centered off the lower TX coast nearly void of deep convection as a result of 20-30kts of SSW upper level wind shear and dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico. It is becoming increasingly likely that the low will make landfall along the middle to lower TX coast early Thursday without significant development.

Impacts:

Rainfall:

Radar shows several bands of thunderstorms moving along and onshore the upper TX coast this afternoon. A fairly impressive band is developing over Galveston Bay and will be sweeping westward over Harris/Galveston/Brazoria Counties in the next 1-2 hours with very heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds to near 50mph. As the center of the surface low drifts westward tonight deeper tropical moisture should begin to spread inland from the coast allowing better inland penetration of squalls and thunderstorms. Still feel the best rain chances and highest accumulations will be from I-10 southward with lesser amounts north of I-10. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible south of I-10 with locally higher amounts in any areas of cell training. North of I-10 amounts will be closer to .50 of an inch.


Winds:

Winds have increased along the coast into the 15-25mph range this afternoon and across the NW Gulf nearshore waters. Angleton, TX gusted to 25mph in the last hour. Offshore platforms have been running in the 20-25mph range and these wind speeds should continue overnight and then gradually weaken on Thursday.

Tides:

Tides have really responded today to the ENE wind flow with water levels now approaching 2.0 ft above normal on the Gulf beaches. Not expecting winds to come up any more and the buoy 20 E of Galveston has only shown a slight increase in swell today from 3.9 ft this morning to 4.3 ft currently with wave periods remaining at 6 seconds. Tidal increase has been a function of Ekman transport moving water to the right of the mean wind direction which is showing up as coastal storm surge of about .50 ft at Galveston, Freeport, and Sabine Pass. Total water level rise on the Gulf beaches is between 1-2 ft currently and at times of high tide may reach 3.0 ft. This remains below the critical thresholds of 3.5-4.0 ft to cause overwash on Bolivar and the W end of Galveston Is and low areas around Clear Lake and Surfside Beach.

Current Water Levels:

Galveston Bay North Jetty: 2.27 ft
Galveston Pier 21: 2.09 ft
Eagle Point: 2.0 ft
Morgan’s Point: 1.57 ft
Lynchburg Ferry Landing: 1.76 ft
Freeport: 1.99 ft
Sargent: 1.24 ft
Rollover Pass: 1.30 ft
Sabine Pass: 1.89 ft

Should see tides begin to abate some late Thursday into Friday, but will remain elevated even into the weekend. Will have to keep a close watch on potential additional tropical development possibilities late in the weekend/early next week over the southern Gulf of Mexico/western Caribbean Sea as this could result in an extended period of elevated tides.

[Ptarmigan]

I do not think Invest 98L will develop.

[Katdaddy]

Hearing thunder from thunderstorms moving onshore this morning along the Upper TX Coast. Highest rain chance will be along the coastal areas today as a surface trough extends along the TX Coast. Deep tropical moisture set to arrive from the Yucatan tomorrow and Saturday bringing the potential for very heavy tropical rains across SE TX. Stay tuned.

[srainhoutx]

As Brian mentioned, the shorter range meso guidance including the Texas Tech short range model seem to have intiated better in handling the morning storms moving inland along the Coast. The worrisome issues is the heavy rainfall potential with 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall rates slowly spreading inland and continuing later today. The weak broad low is near Padre Island with a trough extending S into the Bay of Campeche. PW's are very high across the Southern Gulf near 2.5 Inches. The major fly in the ointment has been how all this deep tropical moisture would interact with a slowly advancing trough to our W and a very robust short wave/upper air disturbance crossing the Central//Southern Plains Friday and Saturday. The GFS and Euro have been keeping the heavy rains in Louisiana, but those short range meso models have insisted that SE Texas would be the focus of very heavy rainfall and possible flood potential. It does look this morning that those short range models may have been correct. If the 12Z global models latch onto this trend, it is not out of the question the Flash Flood Watches may need to be hoisted for portions of SE Texas and possibly Eastern Areas of Central Texas. Another concern for our Central Texas neighbors will be a potential for strong storms with very gusty winds Friday into Saturday. It is very typical with these weak tropical like systems to throw a curveball or two and we certainly have a long fetch of very moist tropical air with its origin in the Western Caribbean Sea spreading towards the Texas Coast this morning.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Increasing threat for excessive rainfall Friday into Saturday.

Surface low located over the western Gulf of Mexico just east of Brownsville will slowly move inland today allowing a plume of very moist air to spread inland from the coast. Brownsville radar indicates that thunderstorms have erupted over/near the center of the circulation this morning. Currently this moist plume extends about 25-30 miles inland and is clearly marked by ongoing thunderstorms over the nearshore waters and coastal counties. As the circulation with 98L gradually dissolves this will open the door to better inland penetration of moisture and thunderstorms starting this afternoon. Still expect a strong rainfall gradient today from the coast inland to roughly I-10 or HWY 105 with our northern counties seeing very little rainfall and the coastal areas possibly picking up a couple of much needed inches.

Forecast gets more interesting Friday-Saturday as an approaching long wave trough over the western US will help to steer the remains of 98L northward toward SE TX/SW LA while a secondary surge of very moist air (PWS at or above 2.5 inches which is +2 SD above normal for late August) just north of the Yucatan moves NW toward the TX coast. Weak large scale ascent will be present from Friday afternoon into Saturday supporting widespread thunderstorms. I am concerned with a few of the models showing some fairly organized thunderstorms as the vort lobe with 98L moves into or just east of SE TX early Saturday morning. Organized thunderstorms in such a moist air mass would be very capable of “incredible” rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour. Rainfall rates of this magnitude would cause flooding even in areas that are running a significant rainfall deficit currently.

Late Weekend/Early Next Week:

Trough axis begins to push eastward Sunday helping to dry out an extremely moist air mass, but another strong tropical wave will already be approaching from the central Caribbean Sea by this time. This wave is a function of a trade wind burst behind the currently departing Hurricane Cristobal over the NW Atlantic. This trade wind burst is allowing strong surface mass convergence on its leading edge, but currently 30kts of upper level WSW shear is keeping the system from organizing. As the wave/wind burst moves westward toward the western Caribbean Sea upper level conditions appear to become favorable for development. The GFS, GFS Ensembles, and CMC all show a closed low tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche early to mid next week. There appears to be enough ridging over the US Gulf coast to keep any tropical system moving WNW or NW toward MX or S TX, but models are starting to point at somewhat of an elongated system with impacts sprawling outward NE from the center well up the TX coast.

Tides:

Winds have sustained in the 15-20mph range overnight and will gradually weaken and veer to the ESE to SE today as the surface low east of Brownsville weakens and shifts inland. Current tides are running 1-2 feet above normal and expect this to continue today. Buoy 20 E of Galveston is running 3.0 ft swell with a 4.1 second period which is down from yesterday, so not expecting any more water to be brought to the coast by wave action. With winds veering from NE to ESE/SE today expect the mean transport of water toward the coast to gradually end also.

Current Water Levels:

Galveston Bay North Jetty: 2.41 ft
Galveston Pier 21: 2.08 ft
Eagle Point: 1.75 ft
Morgan’s Point: 1.50 ft
Lynchburg Ferry Landing: 1.32 ft
Freeport: 1.96 ft
Sargent: 1.23 ft
Rollover Pass: 1.53 ft
Sabine Pass: 1.53 ft

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
731 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TXC039-321-281430-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0093.140828T1231Z-140828T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MATAGORDA TX-BRAZORIA TX-
731 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 730 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SWEENY AND SARGENT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
735 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TXC167-281430-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0094.140828T1235Z-140828T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GALVESTON TX-
735 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 729 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER AND SOME MINOR FLOODING ON GALVESTON
ISLAND.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...GALVESTON
ISLAND EAST END...GALVESTON PIER 21...THE STRAND...AND PELICAN
ISLAND.

[tireman4]

This could be a "soaker" of a day for many folks. As Steve stated ( and Brian too), stay aware.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx

[rgweathergeek]

And here comes the rain. After lots of distant lighting from about 3 am on, it looks like it is closer to 8 P.M. here in Clear Lake instead of 8 A.M.. Very fast moving clouds moving from southeast to northwest this morning. Thankfully much of the heavy rain looked to hold off past the morning rush. We need the rain down here so hopefully the forecasts are right.

[jasons2k]

I hope we get some rain, finally.

When I read 'deep tropical moisture is set to arrive Friday' I have to shake my head a little. I can't help it because I always get the shaft.

Let's rewind to last Sunday, shall we. All the talk of this backdoor front moving into the Gulf from the Southeast US with the disturbance on the tail end. OCMs started talking it up, and one of them (Channel 13 I think?) had us with a 60% chance of rain for Tuesday, when....wait for it....the 'deeper moisture was set to arrive' and Monday was supposed to be the last of the hot/dry days.

Tuesday came, and the weather was status quo. Everything was still east of here, but we watched all day the satellite/radar/WV loops and the moisture finally inching this way. And with GREAT anticipation (at least for me) it arrived that evening. I made a ceremony out of it - I was standing on my front porch when the wind shift from the east *finally* gusted through. I remember thinking 'finally for the first time this season, we are within the most envelope of a tropical system' and I went to bed with high hopes for Wednesday.

And what did Wednesday do? That initial surge just kept on going west, and somehow - out of left field - we were stuck in a dry pocket of nothing. WHAT? HUH? This wasn't supposed to happen. But hey, at least that trough axis still extended to the north and when the system finally moves west just a tad, we'll be on the 'wet side'. At least that was yesterday's thinking.

I wake up today, and the story is 'hey, the trough axis now extends to the SOUTH, to the Bay of Campeche, and when THAT moves this way the floodgates will open.

Maybe.

But why do I have this strange feeling, that come next Tuesday, we'll be saying "well folks, it might finally rain when the hurricane hits!"

Rant over... I hope I am wrong.....have a good day