September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

[BlueJay]

Well, it's Texas. We know that we will have two out of three happening during this month. Maybe El Niño will guard us from a dangerous hurricane. We will see.

[Ptarmigan]

Like April, September is a cruel month. Many things happened in the month of September. Interestingly, some of the deadliest disasters in American history occurred in September, 1900 Galveston Hurricane, 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, and 9/11.

1900 Great Galveston Hurricane-September 8, 1900 12,000 Killed
1928 Okeechobee Hurricane-September 13 and 17, 1928 +4,078 Killed
9/11 Terrorist Attacks-September 11, 2001 3,000 Killed
1938 New England Hurricane-September 21, 1938 800 Killed
Atlantic Gulf Hurricane-September 8 and 14, 1919 772 Killed
1935 Labor Day Hurricane-September 2 and 4, 1935 600 Killed
SS Central America Sinking-September 9, 1857 550 Killed (Sank By Hurricane #2)
Bentalha Massacre-September 22–23, 1997 400 Killed
Beslan Massacre-September 1-3, 2004 385 Killed
PS Lady Elgin Sinking-September 8, 1860 300 Killed
Thumb Fire-September 5, 1881 282 Killed
Hurricane Ike-September 13, 2008 195 Killed
UTA Flight 772 Bombing-September 19, 1989 170 Killed
Hurricane Ivan-September 2004 123 Killed
Hurricane Rita-September 24, 2005 120 Killed
Hurricane Frances-September 5, 2004 49 Killed
Hurricane Carla-September 11, 1961 43 Killed
Toulouse chemical Factory Explosion-September 21, 2001 29 Killed
Tian Mingjian Massacre-September 20, 1994 24 Killed
Cuers Massacre-September 24, 1995 15 Killed
Zug Massacre-September 27, 2001 14 Killed
Washington Navy Yard Massacre-September 16, 2013 13 Killed
Camden, New Jersey Massacre-September 6, 1949 13 Killed
Queen Isabella Causeway Collapse-September 15, 2001 8 Killed
Accent Signage Systems Shooting-September 27, 2012 6 Killed

[Kludge]

Like April, September is a cruel month. Many things happened in the month of September. Interestingly, some of the deadliest disasters in American history occurred in September, 1900 Galveston Hurricane, 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, and 9/11.

1900 Great Galveston Hurricane-September 8, 1900 12,000 Killed
Hurricane Ike-September 13, 2008 195 Killed
Hurricane Rita-September 24, 2005 120 Killed
Hurricane Carla-September 11, 1961 43 Killed

Wow.
Startling facts.
Seems Texans suffered the brunt. More than all the others combined.

[Texaspirate11]

Houston/Galveston lead the state in disasters.

[srainhoutx]

A quick look at the next 6 to 14 days is suggesting lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean into the Western Gulf as Hurricane Cristobal exits to the NE into the N Atlantic and the Bermuda Ridge builds back into the East Coast and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The longer range ensemble guidance is already suggesting the potential for tropical mischief developing in the SW Caribbean Sea and moving generally NW into the Western Gulf in the first 10 days or so of September. These waters are virtually untouched with plenty of warm water with little to no shear and favorable instability. Nothing is forming at this time, but something to monitor as we begin the month of September and reach the peak of tropical development potential in the Atlantic Basin.

[cperk]

A quick look at the next 6 to 14 days is suggesting lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean into the Western Gulf as Hurricane Cristobal exits to the NE into the N Atlantic and the Bermuda Ridge builds back into the East Coast and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The longer range ensemble guidance is already suggesting the potential for tropical mischief developing in the SW Caribbean Sea and moving generally NW into the Western Gulf in the first 10 days or so of September. These waters are virtually untouched with plenty of warm water with little to no shear and favorable instability. Nothing is forming at this time, but something to monitor as we begin the month of September and reach the peak of tropical development potential in the Atlantic Basin.

Great post srainhoutx don't let your guard down.

[srainhoutx]

I have received some inquiries regarding what was mentioned above as well as what the morning update from Jeff offered. What we are currently watching is a surge of easterly trade winds that has been bottled up just E of the Caribbean Islands since Cristobal formed and the deep East Coast trough dropped S into Florida. MIMIC clearly shows the surge of moisture and easterly trade winds pushing W as Cristobal lifts NE. There is also convection across the Northern half of South America firing and beginning to lift WNW into the SW Caribbean Sea. Pressures are expect to fall as we near the weekend timeframe across the SW Caribbean and the potential is in that area for something to spin up and move generally NW.

[srainhoutx]

Typically we would keep tropical activity in the Hurricane Central area of our Forum, but with the increased potential activity closer to home we will follow thing in our Main Weather Page area. The GFS is suggesting a disturbance develops this weekend in the SW Caribbean Sea and slowly moves NW crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of Campeche early next week. There are indications at this range that another trough will be dropping SE from the Intermountain West and the Upper Ridge will shift a bit E into the Tennessee Valley. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

I want to briefly comment on the potential tropical disturbance that may develop this weekend in Labor Day across the Western Caribbean Sea before everyone gets busy with those end of the simmer Holiday plans. The overnight reliable Global ensembles as well as some of the operational guidance increased odds that more tropical mischief may spin up and enter the Western Gulf next week. The ensemble mean is rather tightly clustered near the Yucatan Peninsula for possible tropical cyclone genesis late on Sunday into Monday. These waters are virtually untouched and very warm and conditions do appear favorable for potential development.

[srainhoutx]

While we are waiting for RECON to arrive investing 98L, the 12Z GFS is showing our next tropical mischief early next week in the Western Gulf...

[Andrew]

Mid level ridging really tries to dig in over most of the gulf coast next week according to the GFS. If that happens it will be hard for this system to make it too far North. Still 6 to 7 days out so a lot will change but ridging looks pretty dominate as of now.

[djmike]

Mexico. Figures.

[srainhoutx]

Mexico. Figures.

Remember when what is now Cristobal was expected to make landfall today in Galveston via the GFS? There is still some spread in the individual members and nothing has even formed as of now.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon update from the Climate Prediction Center suggests a rather deep trough dropping S in their Day 8+ Analogs.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro ensemble mean is rather well clustered at hour 120 in the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula and then the spread widens by hour 144 in the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf.

[cperk]

Mexico. Figures.

That GFS forecast is not etched in stone.Lets see what we have come Sunday and take it from there.

[srainhoutx]

With the long Labor Day Holiday Weekend upon us, here is a brief synopsis of the potential development of more tropical mischief in the NW Caribbean Sea and the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf early next week. The global operational guidance has been wavering on developing a tropical disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula/Bay of Campeche late on Sunday into Labor Day (September 1st). The reliable Euro and GEFS ensembles are suggesting the potential for something to spin up, but differ on timing and where this development may actually occur. The pressures in the Western Caribbean have been falling the past 24 hours and a tropical wave is moving W south of Hispaniola in the Central Caribbean. At this time wind shear is keeping development in check, but conditions may become a bit more favorable once this disturbance nears the NW Caribbean/Bay of Campeche. It is note worthy that a TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) is N of the Greater Antilles moving WNW in tandem with this disturbance and that is typically not conducive for tropical development. We will continue to monitor over the Holiday weekend just in case things change and update as need be. The National Hurricane Center currently gives this disturbance a 20% chance for development by day 5.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable for development during the
next day or so. However, environmental conditions could become
more conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday, and into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kludge]

Nobody can accuse this forecaster of being a downer...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY FOR E AND SE TX. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE C PLAINS AND A WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER S TX WHICH HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY THE LAST
DAY OR TWO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE UPPER LOW AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER
TX COAST TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO PROVIDING FLOW FOR
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT TOWARDS THE NW GULF FOR TONIGHT. IR
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS VERY DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE C GULF. THERE IS ALSO A LINE OF STORMS
OVER N TX ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE 00Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS SHOW 2-2.2
INCHES OF PRECIP WATER. MOISTURE IN THE GULF HAS PW VALUES
APPROACHING 2.5 SO THERE WILL BE CERTAINLY PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE ALREADY SOME STORMS PUSHING
INLAND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we will see Invest 99L or a reactivation of 97L shortly. A floater is up for the Central Caribbean area of disturbed weather.

[cperk]

srainhoutex are you buying the GFS track for ex 97L.