May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

[srainhoutx]

Good to see the Upper Rio Grande, Pecos and the Permian Basin areas getting beneficial rainfall. As for next week, there are some indications that a stalled frontal boundary may be draped across Central, SE, East Texas into Louisiana. We are a far cry from the situation our Region was in back 4 years ago. Even Monterrey, Nuevo León is running near 300% above normal for rainfall...year to date.

[Ptarmigan]

Good to see the Upper Rio Grande, Pecos and the Permian Basin areas getting beneficial rainfall. As for next week, there are some indications that a stalled frontal boundary may be draped across Central, SE, East Texas into Louisiana. We are a far cry from the situation our Region was in back 4 years ago. Even Monterrey, Nuevo León is running near 300% above normal for rainfall...year to date.

Good to hear that. Hope the Western US also benefits as well.

[srainhoutx]

Showers and some storms continue to move inland off the Gulf. There have been several reports of tropical short lived funnel clouds across Brazoria County which is typical with a surge of tropical moisture moving inland in May. The short range Texas Tech and HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) guidance suggest scattered showers and storms are likely across portions of Central and SE Texas this afternoon particularly with daytime heating.

[srainhoutx]

A small but very slow moving strong to severe thunderstorm cell is likely producing flooding across Southern Burleson County. This storm developed yesterday afternoon North of San Antonio and has drifted slowly East during the night dropping 4-8 inches of rainfall near Bastrop. Radar indicates this very heavy rainfall producing thunderstorm may be moving ESE with additional showers spreading inland off the Gulf across Western and Central portions of SE Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Warning issued for Burleson, Washington and Brazos Counties. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across portions of SE Texas.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/06/15 1216Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1200Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:0923Z
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...PACIFIC-GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONNECTION CONTINUES...SO
BURLESON COUNTY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER THROUGH BRAZOS AND
GRIMES AND PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING COUNTIES...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THOUGH NOT AS POTENT AS DURING THE
NIGHT...STILL A DEFINITE MODERATE PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION CONNECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AT THE MID LEVELS FEEDING INTO LOW LEVEL WESTERN
GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SE TEXAS TO SUSTAIN HVY RAIN A BIT LONGER
THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AS CONVECTIVE CELL CROSSES THE CENTER OF
BRAZOS AND THEN GRIMES COUNTY. LATEST GPS PWAT AT 11Z HAD A 1.6"
VALUE CENTERED ON CONROE, TX AND THAT WELL ABOVE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1215-1515Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BY END OF
THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL CONCERN FOR AREA CENTERED ON BRAZOS AND POSSIBLY
GRIMES AND CLOSE SURROUNDING COUNTIES FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINS BEFORE THAT
HAPPENS...WHAT WITH 1.6" PWATS IN AREA THERE COULD BE HRLY RATES CLOSE
TO THAT FIGURE NEXT HR OR SO.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Upper air disturbance this morning resulting in a very slow moving strong to a times severe thunderstorm over the NW counties of SE TX. The storm is currently located over northern Washington County with a second storm moving into southern Brazos County. Main threat appears to be excessive rainfall where Doppler radar indicates upwards of 2.5-4.5 inches of rainfall is occurring with this cell and has occurred over northern Le and much of Burleson Counties this morning.

These storms are slowly moving toward the SE at around 10mph and may move into Grimes/Waller/Montgomery/Harris Counties over the next few hours should they hold together. Favorable low level inflow off the Gulf of Mexico should help to maintain the activity at least for the next hour.

Clearly the air mass across the NW/W portions of the region is fairly unstable this morning and with surface heating today and the potential for weak impulses to move across in the SW flow scattered showers and thunderstorms look possible.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
757 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

BURLESON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-WALLER TX-GRIMES TX-
757 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 755 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN CAUSING MINOR
FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN. AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS LIKELY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...WASHINGTON...MILLICAN...
WELLBORN AND INDEPENDENCE.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in Central Texas...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
804 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

TRAVIS TX-BASTROP TX-WILLIAMSON TX-LEE TX-
804 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 801 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
EARLIER HEAVY RAINS CAUSING URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
FROM AUSTIN AND BASTROP TO TAYLOR AND DIME BOX. UP TO 7 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THIS AREA. NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WHILE RUNOFF CONTINUES IN URBAN AREAS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...PFLUGERVILLE...ELGIN...BASTROP...LEXINGTON...WINDEMERE...
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...MANOR...CEDAR CREEK...WYLDWOOD...
TANGLEWOOD...FEDOR...CAMP SWIFT...DIME BOX...CIRCLE D-KC ESTATES...
WEBBERVILLE...DEL VALLE...BLUE...WELLS BRANCH AND MCDADE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE QUARTER INCH IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE MINOR
FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
851 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

WASHINGTON TX-AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-
851 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 847 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST
NORTHWEST OF HEMPSTEAD MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. CELLS
WITHIN THIS CLUSTER ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR. THESE HEAVY RATES WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KATY...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...WALLER...PINE
ISLAND...SIMONTON...SAN FELIPE...PATTISON AND MONAVILLE.

[jasons2k]

Forecast this week went from wet to dry to wet. I'm glad it's wet though, we still need all the rain we can get.

[BlueJay]

Cloudy. Sunny. Very dark and cloudy. Partly sunny. 6 rain drops.
Sprinkler time if this continues.

[srainhoutx]

The updated surface charts from the Weather Prediction Center suggests a very slow moving or stalling frontal boundary will set up shop across S Central/SE/E Texas this coming Sunday into early next week. Typically when we see such a pattern developing with a persistent onshore flow at the lower levels off of the Western Gulf as well as a robust upper low/rough to our West promoting SW flow aloft, heavy rainfall seems possible. We may see a brief break in rain chances Friday into Saturday, but even that is rather uncertain as we witnessed last night and early this morning across the Hill Country and NW of Metro Houston. Mesoscale features are very difficult to forecast and even the short term meso guidance cannot resolve such features well in advance.

[srainhoutx]

05062015 mcd0517.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061846Z - 062045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND WILL BE EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID-60S. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
PERSISTENT STRATUS FIELD OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BOTH ALONG THE DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM
FORT STOCKTON TO MIDLAND AND POINTS NORTHEAST...AND WITHIN A
THICKENING FIELD OF CUMULUS WHERE MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES HAVE
INCREASED TO 1500-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT WILL
SUPPORT MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LIKELY
WITH PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS A SIGNAL FOR MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EQUATOR-WARD SIDE OF THE
ENHANCED 400-250 MB FLOW. THE RESULTANT LOWERING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD INITIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR SPREADING IN. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW INITIALLY BECAUSE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE THE INITIAL THOUGHT IS TO
ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IF ONE IS ISSUED...BUT THE WIND
FIELDS AND RADAR TRENDS OF THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPTICK IN TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..CONIGLIO/HART.. 05/06/2015


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

[texoz]

Rough afternoon for folks in north TX, OK, and Nebraska.

Was watching one tornado chaser video from southwest of OK City. He was parked with his camera trained on another car that was 6 feet from him. The wind driven rain was so blinding I almost couldn't see the car 6 feet away. Was expecting to see it lift off the ground the wind was blowing so hard. Eventually, after the wind died down it became obvious he was parked in a gas station. Crazy video.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to trend toward an active unsettled pattern this weekend into next week. A very robust upper low/trough continues to dig south and should fully close off into a cold core upper low across Southern Nevada on Saturday. There are indications that a rather strong disturbance will rotate beneath the base of the trough Friday night into Saturday firing storms along the Rio Grande as well as a dryline across West Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Moderate Risk for Severe Storms across portions of the Southern and Central Plains for Saturday.

By Sunday into early next week things become rather complicated as the Western upper trough takes on a negative tilt with embedded disturbances riding NE in the SW flow aloft over Texas. Add to the mix a very slow moving frontal boundary that appears to pull up stationary across portions of Central and SE Texas and you have a recipe for a heavy rainfall event. The medium to long range guidance suggests this sort of pattern may persist throughout most of next week. It is possible that we could see Flood Watches begin to be hoisted West to East across a large portion of the Lone Star State if he trends continue the next couple of days. Due to the the slow motion of any storms that develop over the weekend into next week, very heavy rainfall rates of 2+ inches per hour will need to be monitored.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is rather insistent suggesting a very weak and defuse frontal boundary sags south across the Hill Country and basically washes the boundary out into next Thursday. Further to our West near Southern California/Arizona, the pesky upper trough remains sending ripples of upper air disturbances across the Southern half of Texas. Sunday into later next week could be rather wet and stormy, if the guidance is correct.

[srainhoutx]

The next couple of days will offer great concern for a potential severe weather outbreak across the Central and Southern Plains extending as far south as the I-20 Corridor into the Edwards Plateau.

Attention then shifts further S into the Hill Country and SE Texas as a weak stalling frontal boundary approaches the Coastal Plain Sunday afternoon into next Monday. A squall line appears likely overnight Sunday into Monday leaving a cold pool across South Central Texas extending ENE. To the West, a very pesky upper trough appears to hold strong until at least mid week. Embedded disturbances appear to ride ENE along the stalled boundary with a cold pool in place as well as left over boundaries assisting to focus bouts of heavy training storms. The QPF guidance continues to advertise rounds of strong to possibly severe storms developing every 6 hours or so training across already saturated grounds. Some of the various quantitative precipitation forecasts are suggesting 5 to 7 inches of rainfall with isolated totals approaching 11 inches. PW'S Increase to near 2 inches which raises an eyebrow. Flood and Flash Flooding concerns increase if such a scenario unfolds. The unsettled pattern may persist into late next week which is concerning. Upstream River flows are already high with almost daily flooding across NW and N Central Texas from the storms most of this week. It is difficult if not impossible to forecast various meso features beyond 6 to 12 hours, but the persistence displayed by the various computer model schemes do warrant monitoring as we enter the weekend and early next week. Stay Tuned!

[snowman65]

What is up with all this rain next week????...GEEZ...enough already

[jasons2k]

I'll take it. The trees are still under stress and recovering from the drought. Some of the pines are still going through cycles of bursting new needles with rain and them dropping them. There are still a lot in a slow decline cycle and are just now dying off.

Eric Berger's blog (it was either last Monday or the one before) had a writeup about the rain so far this year. Even with all the perceived wetness we are very close to normal. We just forgot what Houston climate is supposed to be like. And all this is with the help of El Niño. It's a little concerning about what lies ahead for us when this El Niño cycle is over. Enjoy the moisture and lack of water restrictions while we have it.