JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[Poltracker]

Anyone have an idea of when the onset of rain will start?

[unome]

Anyone have an idea of when the onset of rain will start?

you can look at your forecast graph from any NWS website http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/ , enter your City, ST or zip code, here's your graph for Deer Park, TX

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... =graphical

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center afternoon Updated Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is out. Also, HGX will delay their Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon due to an upgrade being completed on the operational systems.

[Texashawk]

The Weather Prediction Center afternoon Updated Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is out. Also, HGX will delay their Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon due to an upgrade being completed on the operational systems.

It's like the x is literally over my house. Wow.

We shall see!

-Steve

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AS DISCUSSED IN THE
MORNING UPDATE...RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CWA...NEAR
SAN ANTONIO IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND DE-STABILIZATION. RICH INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT IS
RESULTING IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...ALONG WITH SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS NOW ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY. THE PAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE TRENDS GENERALLY WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS TO BE SAFE.

FARTHER WEST...A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HAVE MENTIONED AGAIN SOME HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED AGAIN EAST OF I-35. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

...ALL EYES ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...

...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS GIVING THE SYSTEM A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND A RECON
FLIGHT WAS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S...TOWARDS TEXAS BY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND MEAN WITH THE TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF NOW SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
CHANGES IN THE TRACK/SPEED ARE LIKELY FROM MODELS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF.

FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WPC/NHC COORDINATION...AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY WESTWARD SHIFT...WE ARE
SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WE ARE
FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES ALONG
AND EAST OF A GEORGETOWN TO KARNES CITY LINE. GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN THE LAST MONTH...AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST
24 HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE STRESSED...ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK AND ORGANIZATION COULD LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WETTER OR DRIER. PLEASE STAY CLOSELY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE DOES LINGER OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. POSSIBLE DRYING
TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.

[skidog40]

drove by the Brazos river today and I don't think it can handle these rains that are coming.

[texoz]

Any chance we could see some tornados today? Impressively dark, low altitude & swirly clouds here in Austin right now (4:10pm)

[srainhoutx]

RECON is sampling about 100 miles NNW of Merida at this time. There were some gusts on the N side as they were making their decent near tropical storm force via SFMR, but those may well have been contaminated by rain.

[srainhoutx]

Further Updates from the Weather Predication Center 5 Day QPF is out and the Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook expands Slight Risk into E Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

There have been no significant changes today with respect to the forecast track and intensity for 91L.

USAF aircraft is currently in the system doing their investigation and will await official word from NHC…don’t think we will see an upgrade this evening based on organization, but chances for development do increase on Monday as shear relaxes.

Main threat remains significant rainfall amounts with widespread totals of 6-8 inches and isolated totals of 10-15 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause significant flooding over the region.

There has been no significant changes with respect to the tidal levels…but will have to watch closely as it appears we will be near the 4.0 ft critical flood levels along the Gulf beaches and in the inland bays.

Expect onset of adverse conditions along the mid and upper coast late Monday afternoon into the evening hours.

Will attempt to keep some continuity to updates over the next 24 hours and will shoot for a AM and PM updates, but things will be busy and rapidly increasing Monday evening so the updates will be short and to the point.

[Rip76]

A little Eastward nudge in track.
Not that this means much at the moment.

[srainhoutx]

Broad surface closed low pressure area found about 170 miles WNW Merida. Lowest pressure found 1007.4mb

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...MONDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE
TX. RADAR SHOWS MAINLY JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOOK
FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES IN AN HOUR BUT STORMS ARE
MOVING. OVERALL STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE AROUND 20-25 KTS GIVEN
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THOSE SPEEDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 500 MB. ONLY CHANCE OF FLOODING WILL BE IF STORMS ORGANIZE A
BIT MORE AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF
THE AREA CAN HANDLE TYPICAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED IF A TRAINING STORM SITUATION DEVELOPS.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL IMPACTS...
RIGHT NOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S
...RIDGING OVER MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE S PLAINS. THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PROVIDES A NICE CHANNEL FOR STEERING OF ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
BRINGING A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE MIDDLE TX COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE
OTHER MODELS...ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE NOW MORE
ON THE SAME PAGE. THE POINT HERE IS THAT ALL THE MODELS ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH SE TX INTO N TX/S PLAINS WED INTO WED NIGHT.
ECMWF IS SLOWER COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS BUT HAS EVEN BEEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS MOVEMENT. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT CAUTIOUS OF ANY SLOW
DOWN IN MOTION. A STALLING SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.

OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CHALLENGING. SYSTEM NOW
IS MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SOME
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND IT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THAT SAID VIS
SATELLITE SHOWS MORE CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER SO THE SYSTEM
MAY BE ORGANIZING. RECON FLIGHT IS INVESTIGATING NOW AND WILL KNOW
MORE INFORMATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THAT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE
WITH LOWERING PRESSURE. TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIME FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME ORGANIZED AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS DECREASE. POSSIBLE
FOR AN ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM BY
TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT.
AT THIS POINT POSSIBLE TO GET A DEPRESSION OR STORM TO DEVELOP BUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME.

IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY FLOODING RAINFALL.
IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A TS THEN THERE WILL BE SOME WIND
IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST AND A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY RAINBANDS
THAT FORM. SE TX WILL BE A FAVORED AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS MATAGORDA BAY. WE DO EXPECT
SOME RISE IN TIDE LEVELS WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR INUNDATION
ALONG BOLIVAR PENINSULA. TIDES ALREADY 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND
LIKE GO HIGHER. OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL DICTATE AMOUNT OF SURGE
BUT A FASTER FORWARD MOTION WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH TIME TO PILE
UP SURGE.

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
LOOK FOR THAT WATCH TO COME OUT MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AN AVERAGE 6 TO 8
INCHES FOR THE AREA. ISOLATED 10 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVEN WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM THERE COULD EVEN BE LONGER LASTING
RIVER FLOODING THAT OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK AS BASINS OVER N TX
GET MORE RAINFALL. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE EXACTLY WHERE
THERE MIGHT BE ISO HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH A DIS ORGANIZED SYSTEM
RIGHT NOW...MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING
THE SYSTEM AND WITH ITS EVOLUTION. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT
FLOODING IS HIGHLY LIKELY WITH THIS KIND OF RAINFALL AND EVERYONE
NEEDS TO TAKE IT SERIOUSLY.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUT LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS. FORECAST WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOUNCE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
SPOTTY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTN SHOULD BE ENDING A BIT
AFTER SUNSET. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TO-
MORROW. VCSH/VCTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE TAFS FOR WHILE WITH CIGS
AND VIS DEPENDANT ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORMS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONCERNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CENTERED ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOP-
MENT OF THAT AREA OF DISTURBED WX (CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA). LATEST PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT
THE TX COAST AS EARLY AS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUES MORNING. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MON AS DEEP/
TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PCPN COVERAGE WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MON AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. THE ELEVATED SEAS WILL
ALSO PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT/MON AS THE LONG ONSHORE
FETCH CONTINUES. WINDS/SEAS COULD INCREASE FURTHER FOR THE LATE MON/
TUES TIME FRAME SHOULD THINGS PROGRESS. AS FOR TIDES...WILL BE GOING
WITH INCREASED LEVELS AS WELL. 41

[srainhoutx]

RECON is crisscrossing an area about 140 miles WNW of Merida. Pressure 1006.8mb

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 22:07Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Mandatory Data...


Observation Time: 22:04Z on Sunday
Coordinates: 21.1N 91.9W
Location: 124 statue miles (200 km) to the NW (314°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
Pressure Altitude: 220 meters (722 feet)
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: 25°C (77°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: 17°C (63°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Radar Capability: Yes
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1007 mb (29.74 inHg), extrapolated

Additional Data...


Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)

[unome]

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... _page=hdob

no vortex

[unome]

came across this recent article while searching for wind data, a great read. Ironic that the scale is called IKE and the need for ratings using something other than just wind was soooo evident in Hurricane Ike... how I miss the real-time wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division

https://theconversation.com/there-are-b ... e-is-40137

the article is just 1 in a series of 8 on hurricanes: https://theconversation.com/us/topics/hurricanes-2015

[unome]

from NWS Houston/Galveston's Facebook page

https://www.facebook.com/NWSHouston/pho ... =1&theater

US National Weather Service Houston-Galveston Texas

There is an increasing flood threat for much of Southeast Texas into mid-week and here's a look at our forecast rain totals through Wednesday. Moisture levels will continue to rise while a tropical disturbance moving into the southwest Gulf of Mexico heads to the northwest toward our area through Tuesday. Flash Flood Watches will likely be needed.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in association
with the surface trough and upper-level low over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. However, the low's circulation is not well-defined,
and the current shower and thunderstorm activity remains somewhat
disorganized. The aircraft also found a large area of tropical
storm force winds well to the north and northeast of the low.
Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more favorable
while this system moves northwestward during the next couple of days
across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm could form during that time. Another Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate this system Monday morning.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[txsnowmaker]

I'm scheduled to fly to New Orleans for the day on Tuesday (5:15 am departure from Hobby, late evening flight back). Based on the setup currently envisioned, is there a strong possibility that early morning flights on Tuesday will be canceled?