srainhoutx wrote:While the scoring of the GFS does lack against the ECMWF beyond 5 days, the CMC scores even lower than the GFS. That is why you see a blend of all the guidance in the Extended Range by the Weather Prediction Center, and most of the heavier weighting is given to the ensembles when attempting to resolve the various features such as strength of shortwaves and the amplification or lack there of in the various troughs/ridges and upstream pattern over the Pacific and to the N in the Fall and Winter months. For example the operational Euro was bone dry regarding the light precipitation we are experiencing this morning. The forecaster uses all the tools available to them when attempting to issue a sensible weather forecast, and even then those available 'tools' may well be incorrect in the ground truth weather impacts beyond 6 to 24 hours.BigThicket wrote:Canadian whipping GFS butt and the Canadian cold on cold with precip...GFS is becoming obsolete
Regarding what we may see the first half of January, the various computer schemes are suggesting a very fast flow across the Southern tier of the United States as we would expect in an El Nino pattern. The sub tropical jet continues to be very noisy with storm systems arriving across our Region every 3 to 4 days with varying strength. The ensembles are beginning to converge on a couple of potential significant storms in the extended range. Keep an eye on the January 7th/8th timeframe and around the 13th/14th for yet another strong storm. The Teleconnection Indices continue to advertise a +PNA/-AO/-EPO/- to neutral WPO as well as a wet phase of the MJO (Phase7/8) which tends to suggest a colder weather pattern along and East of the Continental Divide and a continued unsettles pattern from California across the Desert SW into Northern Mexico and Texas as well as the Dixie States along and near the Northern/NE Gulf Coast into Florida.
Just seems that the Canadianis dealing with the warm evolving to cold. Just seems to have the upper hand with our current situation. GFS seems to be inconsistent.