July 2016: Summertime Pattern To End July

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Predication Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook which takes us into a new month suggest several Hemispheric Pattern Changes that we will need to monitor. The Western Upper Ridge looks to remain in control, but there are changes being indicated for the Desert SW as the Monsoon Season may begin. A rather strong Northern Jet Stream rides above the Western Ridge across Western Canada and brings the Continental storm track across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic.

More importantly for our Region is the arrival of a very robust Madden Julian Oscillation pulse as well as a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) and the potential for Tropical development, particularly in the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf of Mexico. Tropical waves continue to traverse East to West across the Atlantic with little fanfare due to sinking air and High Pressure, but conditions in the Western Atlantic Basin are expected to become favorable for potential tropical development as rising and unstable air from the MJO and less wind shear as La Nina conditions begin to impact the Global weather patterns. As the pattern looks rather active, I will add the link to our Hurricane Central Section as we are already monitoring any potential tropical troubles that may come our way as July begins.

Vigorous Tropical Wave/NW Caribbean Mischief?
Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2103

[ticka1]

Wil this be around 4th of July or later?

[Scott747]

Even though it's in the long range the 0z gfs will make model watching much more interesting.

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead to the 4th of July Holiday Weekend, the afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests a strong Upper Ridge across the West with a rather deep Eastern Trough anchored across the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valley Region. Will need to monitor convective complexes dropping SE in the NW flow aloft as well as the arrival of a robust MJO pulse and a CCKW ( Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave ) that may enhance the potential for Tropical troubles in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf.

[Ptarmigan]

The afternoon Updated Climate Predication Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook which takes us into a new month suggest several Hemispheric Pattern Changes that we will need to monitor. The Western Upper Ridge looks to remain in control, but there are changes being indicated for the Desert SW as the Monsoon Season may begin. A rather strong Northern Jet Stream rides above the Western Ridge across Western Canada and brings the Continental storm track across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic.

More importantly for our Region is the arrival of a very robust Madden Julian Oscillation pulse as well as a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) and the potential for Tropical development, particularly in the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf of Mexico. Tropical waves continue to traverse East to West across the Atlantic with little fanfare due to sinking air and High Pressure, but conditions in the Western Atlantic Basin are expected to become favorable for potential tropical development as rising and unstable air from the MJO and less wind shear as La Nina conditions begin to impact the Global weather patterns. As the pattern looks rather active, I will add the link to our Hurricane Central Section as we are already monitoring any potential tropical troubles that may come our way as July begins.

Vigorous Tropical Wave/NW Caribbean Mischief?
Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2103

Some of the analogs are interesting, especially 1961, 1979, 2002, and 2006. They are very wet.

[brooksgarner]

Models have gone from "the big one" at 18z yesterday, to "POOF!" -- nothing, in its next major run, at 00z today. Proof positive why fantasy forecasting for systems that haven't yet formed is a losing proposition.

gfs_namer_384_10m_wnd_precip (1).gif

[srainhoutx]

Interesting factoid from NWS Austin/San Antonio when we are in a transitioning year from El Nino...

The last few weeks have been dry, but CPC is forecasting odds slightly tilted towards a wetter than normal July-September period for the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. July-September was wetter than normal for this part of South Central Texas after transitioning out of three of the last four stronger El Nino events similar to what is happening this summer!

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook and Day 11+ Analogs are suggestive of a bit more in the rainfall department with a Western Ridge/Eastern Trough regime and a stalled boundary situated somewhere across the Mid Mississippi/Tennessee Valley and the Mid Atlantic. We will need to monitor Mesoscale Convective Systems associated with shortwaves riding out of the Gulf of Alaska and over the Western Ridge then dropping SE possibly making it into our part of the World in the NW flow aloft. Will continue to monitor the Tropics as a respectable MJO Pulse and a CCKW arrive around the first of July. A combination of all the various elements in the Hemispheric pattern may favor a wet period. We will see.

[BlueJay]

I believe I have run our sprinklers one time and have hand watered only once since the start of 2016. It will be interesting to see if this wet forecast actually happens which might limit, reduce or negate the need to use sprinklers and or the hose.
That would be nice.

[srainhoutx]

As we begin the long 4th of July Holiday Weekend next Friday, the sensible weather pattern suggests daily seabreeze pulse showers and storms during the heat of the day, but otherwise it appears it will be a typical 4th of July Holiday in Texas.

Across the Tropical Atlantic a rather vigorous tropical wave is exiting the West Coast of Africa a bit higher in latitude than we have been seeing lately (around 10-15 N Latitude). That T wave should continue traveling West in the mean flow beneath the strong sub tropical Ridge across the higher Latitudes of the Atlantic and near the Antilles in about 7-10 days. SAL continues across the MDR, so no tropical development is expected across the Central Atlantic as sinking dry high is in control. The may hemispheric synoptic feature that is worth monitoring will be the MJO pulse set to arrive the second week of July. Rising unstable air may enhance tropical thunderstorm development and as the various tropical waves near the Western Caribbean, condition may become favorable for Tropical Development at that time. We will continue to keep one eye watching the Tropics for any potential tropical mischief that may spin up, particularly after the long 4th of July Holiday weekend.

[Katdaddy]

Getting prepared for the 2016 hurricane season. Hopefully I did not scare the neighbors today with the storm panels today. Its been 8 years since I brought the panels out for a trial run. The NW GOM has been fairly quiet without a significant tropical cyclone threat since IKE in 2008. The potential exist for a more active 2016 season across the GOM and Caribbean Sea with less shear thanks to La Nina

I will be completing some additional maintenance during the next few days. The screw inserts for windows surrounded by bricks need to be cleaned multiple times during the Summer as mud wasps love to try and make these their home. A can of compressed air and WD-40 does the trick.

Today's task took from 11AM until 5:30PM in mostly sunny skies with temps in the mid 90s. I had forgotten about the intense glare off the panels as well as how fast they get extremely hot in the Summer sun.

It was exhausting but will dramatically reduce the time and frustration of putting up the panels during crunch time when every minute counts. I have documented the number of panels per window as well as stacking the panels from the easiest to the most difficult on top. I remember during IKE I put up the easiest panels first but then had to put up the most difficult panels when I was worn down and TS conditions were beginning. Applying lessons of IKE 2008 for the next one.

[DoctorMu]

That's much better than these Ags did in prep for Rita!





I'm from NC and actually did the plywood thing for Rita (on the outside natch)...all we got in CLL was a lot of hot windy air though as she headed for the TX/LA border.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like the Upper Ridge will anchor itself over Texas as we start the new month and that should allow temperatures to rise as well as heat indices for the 4th of July Holiday Weekend. The Global models indicate the Upper Ridge will remain overhead until around the 9th/10th, +/- a day or two before it shift East and an inverted trough sets up over our Region allowing the possibility of rain chances increasing. To the West, a potential trough attempts to develop. The morning Updated Climate Prediction Center GFS Super Ensembles as well as the ECMWF are is fairly good agreement at that range, so we will need to begin monitoring that MJO Pulse and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave as those Hemispheric features allow for rising air and increased instability that will assist in shower and thunderstorm development. As always, we will keep one eye on the Tropics just in case one of those Tropical Waves attempt to spin up in the Western Caribbean Sea.

[srainhoutx]

This morning, we will look ahead into the Medium and Long Range forecast for July. The very robust Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Pulse continues to move Eastward across the Pacific Ocean toward Mexico and eventually the Western Atlantic Basin. A very impressive Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) is also moving in tandem with the pulse of rising and very unstable air and may have some influence on our sensible weather, particularly during the second week of July. The overnight GFS indicates the Upper Ridge that will bring our hot weather next week will loosen its grip over Texas and shift West and weaken. Another unusually deep Eastern trough with a weakness over the Eastern half of Texas extending into Louisiana may be possible along with another backdoor front arriving as the Hemispheric weather features are in place. Tropical waves are increasing in frequency over Africa as the monsoon season begins and that may allow for the Saharan Arid Layer (African Dust) to begin to slowly decrease across the Atlantic. We are already seeing a decrease in vertical wind shear across the Atlantic as well as the Western Atlantic Basin, so will need to monitor for any tropical waves that near the Western Caribbean the next couple of weeks for possibly conducive conditions for tropical development. We will see.

[snowman65]

Does anyone know why there is such a big discrepancy in forecast numbers between weather.com and accuweather.com? Who do you believe. I'm talking like 15 degrees difference...We are heading to Ouray, CO next weekend for a week and I dont know what to prepare for at this point...lol

[unome]

Texas Beaches - anyone hitting the coast this weekend?

https://cgis.glo.texas.gov/Beachwatch/#

https://weather.com/news/news/health-ad ... s-5-states

More than half of the Texas advisories are centered around Galveston, where the Galveston County Health District is assuring people that the advisories in the area are not related to the Vibrio bacteria, commonly referred to as the "flesh-eating bacteria," which killed at least 10 people last year in Florida.

The Galveston beaches under advisory are not closed, the district says. An advisory is simply issued to inform the public of the elevated bacteria level so people can make an informed choice about swimming in the affected waters.

regarding accuweather & weather.com, I personally would trust the one that doesn't pretend it can forecast out to 90 days... although when I check my area, there isn't much of a difference between the two over the next week ? I guess mountainous areas are more difficult to forecast ?

[bikerack]

Does anyone know why there is such a big discrepancy in forecast numbers between weather.com and accuweather.com? Who do you believe. I'm talking like 15 degrees difference...We are heading to Ouray, CO next weekend for a week and I dont know what to prepare for at this point...lol

This was actually just posted today...

http://adequateman.deadspin.com/just-ho ... socialflow

Snippet...

AccuWeather’s forecast was off by as much as 26 degrees one particular day. The average discrepancy between the predicted temperature and the actual temperature was 9.7 degrees for highs and 7.2 degrees for lows. Predicting a steady increase in temperature from the beginning of the month through the end of the month would have been more reliable. Of the 11 days it actually rained, the AccuWeather forecast only called for any precipitation on two of them.

[DoctorMu]

There's a small impulse running east creating a disjointed line extending E-W near Huntsville.

The electrical storm was fierce on Tuesday and brought the death knell of our refrigerator's compressor. A surge protector for the fridge outlet and attempting to replace the solid state relay was too little too late.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011517
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1017 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Made some tweaks to the going forecast, mainly to cover the on-
going radar trends. Starting to see a bit more development over
the central counties with the return of onshore winds/increased
moisture from the Gulf. Did raise POPS a bit this afternoon for
most inland locations as we still have a lot more daytime heat-
ing to go. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Some showers and thunderstorms are developing early this morning
mainly across parts of our southern coastal waters. Once again
this morning, most of the high resolution models have gotten this
development right, so have our area`s highest rain chances
currently across the waters gradually spreading inland during the
day today. At this time, only carrying 20-30% POPs. Still looking
for gradual drying across Southeast Texas over the holiday weekend
as ridging aloft builds across the area. A majority of available
model time sections indicate the drying air mass over the weekend
will remain dry for much of next week. This will help to warm area
temperatures (especially overnight lows) up several degrees. With
strengthening south winds developing across our area in response
to a surface high off to our east and lower pressures off to our
west and northwest, expect to see higher dew points through the
period resulting in rising heat index values. It still looks like
afternoon readings could peak into a 105-110 range, and heat
advisories might be needed. 42

CLIMATE...
June 2016 ended up being the 7th wettest June on record for the Houston
area with 13.12 inches of rain (10.72 inches of that total fell during
the first five days of the month). For the first half of the year, the
42.07 inch total (which is 17.75 inches above normal) stands as the
third wettest first half of the year. The two wetter years were 1993
(43.33 inches) and 2004 (45.04 inches).

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 95 77 96 / 20 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 78 95 / 30 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 83 89 / 30 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

Surface analysis and radar trends suggest a bit more in the way of scattered showers and storms today versus yesterday. At the surface, a shear axis extends from around Matagorda and Galveston Bay to a weak 1013mb low about a couple of Hundred miles S of Lake Charles. With a TC field already expanding inland and showers developing across the Southern portion of our Region, expect heat of the day storms to fire along the seabreeze later this afternoon.