September 2016 - Cool & Drier To End Month

[DoctorMu]

In the meantime still a tongue of juicy air in the area. With some re-establishment of the ridge for the next could of days, rain chance wane. Must. resist. running. sprinklers.

[Skyguy]

Pattern becomes increasingly complicated by this weekend into early next week as it is getting to be that time of year where cold front will tease the region. Additionally, moisture and energy from landfalling Hurricane Newton over Baja this morning looks to become entrained into this frontal system. Lastly, 92L, the weak tropical wave in the central Caribbean will be moving into the SE Gulf of Mexico this weekend and there may be a window for some development of this feature in there is anything left of the wave when it reaches the Gulf.

What are you guys thinking about 92L’s chances of development at this point, srainhoutex? Is there STILL a potential threat from 92L?

[worrybug]

Pattern becomes increasingly complicated by this weekend into early next week as it is getting to be that time of year where cold front will tease the region. Additionally, moisture and energy from landfalling Hurricane Newton over Baja this morning looks to become entrained into this frontal system. Lastly, 92L, the weak tropical wave in the central Caribbean will be moving into the SE Gulf of Mexico this weekend and there may be a window for some development of this feature in there is anything left of the wave when it reaches the Gulf.

What are you guys thinking about 92L’s chances of development at this point, srainhoutex? Is there STILL a potential threat from 92L?

And 92L's not even in the NHC's tropical weather outlook. Lookit:

[Katdaddy]

The tropics have pretty much gone back to bed across the Atlantic Basin. PTC Hermine has dissipated and Invest 92L went poof yesterday afternoon and evening. The only tropical development potential is in the far E Atlantic SW of the Cape Verdes and likely to become a fish storm during the next 5 days.

Not much on the radar this morning and the forecast will remain similar to yesterday through the rest of the week with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across SE TX.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071157
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
657 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016

.AVIATION...
Models are indicating best moisture axis and associated possible shower
and thunderstorm development to remain mainly to the east and west of
our TAF sites today. Any MVFR ceilings/visibilities early this morning
will transition to VFR by around 15Z. There are some indications that
there could be a little more low cloud and fog coverage early tomorrow
morning, but prefer to see if today`s model runs pick this trend up
before including any mention in the TAFs. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Another forecast with the expectation of high temperatures
roughly near normal, low temperatures a little above normal, and
diurnal convection chances each day. The primary challenge early
in the period will be parsing out the extent and location of
coverage for showers and thunderstorms. This weekend and into next
week, a couple upper troughs in the northern stream will bring
the potential for a cold front near or perhaps into the area,
adding complexity to the forecast.

Today through Friday...
Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are seen across Southeast
Texas and the nearby waters in the late night hours. But, over the
Gulf waters and immediate coast, there were some scattered
showers. This activity was mostly up and down the coast from our
area, but there are some showers present on radar just inside the
CWA borders. Expect this activity to continue through the night,
and likely set the stage for convection later in the day as a
subtle midlevel vort max moves in from the east and slides down
the coast. This pattern of best potential on the borders and a
lull between can be seen in mesoanalysis where instability is
greatest and convective inhibition weakest towards the borders,
and a stronger cap between the two. There`s a pretty unanimous
opinion in the CAMs that this will carry through the day, keeping
this pattern into the afternoon.

In the next couple of days, the 597 dm midlevel ridge will slide
west and weaken some, while a wave - perhaps born of some
vorticity sheared off of ex-Hermine - moves across the Gulf. This
may not be quite close enough to make a significant difference on
Thursday, so keep the best PoPs very near the seabreeze front as a
local source of initiation. But by Friday as the wave pushes into
northern Mexico or far South Texas, could help spur greater
coverage of convection across our area.

This weekend...
In the meantime, the remnants of Hurricane Newton
will be getting drawn up northeastward by a passing northern
stream upper trough and advancing cold front. The primary
consequence of this will be heavy rain potential from the Desert
Southwest into Western Oklahoma. However, we`ll be watching the
evolution of this feature for its implications on the forward
progress of the cold front into Texas. Again tonight, both the
Euro and GFS wash out the front in Northeast Texas. For what its
worth, the GEM brings a pretty coherent front into Southeast
Texas, and drops a couple of inches of rain across the area this
weekend. This is certainly an outlier solution, and little weight
is given to it in the forecast. Still, it does propose what seems
to be a plausible higher impact scenario that shouldn`t be totally
ignored.

Next week...
Early next week, very weak subtropical ridging appears to come
back into place aloft, with the area in a typical location on the
fringe of low level high pressure to the east. As such, the
forecast largely returns to a pattern resembling a typical late
summer pattern. To the west, a vigorous upper trough will come
ashore the Pacific Coast. The GFS and Euro both generally agree in
the trough gaining an extremely positive tilt and shearing off
some vorticity to briefly form a cutoff low over the Mountain
West in the middle week. This low then gets absorbed back into the
northern stream. The result at the surface is the associated front
stalling out well to the northwest of our area. The lack of run to
run consistency, as well as the complicated evolution of this
trough, points to considerable uncertainty for the late part of
the period.

Luchs

MARINE...
With high pressure remaining off to our east, look for
a continuation of light to occasionally moderate onshore
winds through the end of the week. Over the weekend, more
variable and lighter winds are anticipated as a weak
frontal boundary stalls across Texas. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 75 93 74 92 / 20 10 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 93 76 92 75 91 / 20 10 30 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 88 82 89 / 20 10 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42

[DoctorMu]

92L is a faded memory, but Newton and the front may trigger some happiness. Somehow, we were left high and dry the last few days, while areas east and west of town saw shower.. High dew points (78°F) as a muggy reminder of what could have been IMBY.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

GALVESTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-HARRIS TX-
240 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

* AT 239 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STORMS
BETWEEN PEARLAND AND CLEAR LAKE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES NEAR 3
INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...ALVIN...
WEBSTER...MANVEL...CLEAR LAKE...SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...GREATER
HOBBY AREA...NASSAU BAY...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...SOUTH ACRES /
CRESTMONT PARK...ELLINGTON FIELD...MINNETEX...EDGEBROOK AREA AND
THE JOHNSON SPACE CENTER.

[srainhoutx]

Today marks the 116th Anniversary of the Great Galveston Hurricane. So much has changed over the past 116 years with technology and knowledge, but it serves as a reminder of what these Beasts are capable of and why we are so passionate about Hurricane Preparedness.

NWS Houston ‏@NWSHouston · 39m39 minutes ago
Today is a sober day, the anniversary of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. It is still the deadliest US natural disaster

[tireman4]

There is a great book on the subject. I think I have read it 5 times. Everytime, it is just...amazing. Isaac's Storm. It about the 1900 storm as seen through Isaac Cline. He was the meteorologist in charge of the NWS Galveston Bureau ( well Weather Bureau back then). https://www.amazon.com/Isaacs-Storm-Dea ... 0375708278

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016

.AVIATION...
Low clouds and fog (some IFR levels) have formed across our north and
northwest areas. Expect conditions to improve to VFR levels generally
between 13Z and 15Z. A majority of the rest of the area should stay
VFR with scattered SHRA/TSRA possibly developing during the day. Any
storms that develop will dissipate by the early to mid evening hours.
Best chance for low cloud and fog formation tonight through Friday
morning will again be across out north and northwest areas. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Scattered convection and near to just slightly above normal
temperatures continue again today. Upper disturbances will provide
potential for greater than normal coverage of showers and storms both
this weekend and again next week, with temperatures a few degrees
cooler.

Today...
A few showers are present across the marine zones and the
immediate coast, mostly around Matagorda Bay. Elsewhere, skies are
clear with localized spots of fog emerging. One more day like the
bulk of the week so far. Temperatures should be at or just above
normal again, along with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.

Convection will be isolated to scattered in nature again, and most
probable nearest the seabreeze boundary. After getting cute with
the short term PoPs and winning a couple days ago, repeating
yesterday brought nothing but ruin as a flood advisory was issued
in a spot where slight chance PoPs were placed. Without any real
significant differences present in the environment in
mesoanalysis, there`s not much more confidence in trying to
specify higher potential locations beyond near the seabreeze. The
GFS, NAM, RAP and SREF suggest better column moisture from about
Harris County and eastward, but CAM guidance says the exact
opposite. It seems the safest course of action will be to be
fairly broadbrushed.

This weekend...
An upper trough working through the Great Lakes will also draw in
the remnants of Newton from the Desert Southwest, allowing for
rain along the cold front to our northwest. In the meantime, an
inverted trough aloft will make its way from the eastern Gulf to
the Texas coast before stalling out more or less on top of us.
The front still looks to wash out before reaching our area, but
the cooling aloft from the upper disturbances should allow for
more instability, and despite temperatures cooling slightly, would
expect more numerous shower and storm development this weekend,
albeit still scattered and showery in nature.

Next week...
The vorticity from the aforementioned trough will still be present
over our area as the work week begins, before slowly drifting down
the coast early next week. As this occurs, a `perky` trough -
energetic and very positive (tilted) - will push on the western
coast, leaving behind a cutoff low over the Sierra/western Great
Basin. As what`s left of the northern stream trough carries on
along the Canadian border, a weak subtropical ridge builds over
the southern US. The major implication for the surface is that the
front, removed from its upper support, grinds to a halt short of
our area, though it appears to come closer than the front this
weekend. Again, we should see scattered showers and storms,
greater in coverage than average, emerge from this. However,
models are notorious for handling these kind of evolutions poorly,
so decided to mostly splatter chance PoPs and near or slightly
below average temperatures across the week. There`s a fair chance
this may verify on its own - but if not, there has been narrowing
spread between the GFS and Euro that at least leaves hope that
more detail may be added to the forecast in the coming days.

Luchs

MARINE...
A continuation of light to occasionally moderate onshore winds
and low seas can be expected through the end of the week and over
the weekend. A disturbance moving into the region from the east at
the end of the week and lingering near the area over the weekend
and into the start of next week will bring an increase in shower
and thunderstorm chances. Winds and seas could be higher in and
near these storms. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 92 74 90 / 10 10 20 10 40
Houston (IAH) 93 75 90 75 91 / 30 10 40 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 89 80 88 / 20 20 40 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42

[CrashTestDummy]

92L is a faded memory, but Newton and the front may trigger some happiness. Somehow, we were left high and dry the last few days, while areas east and west of town saw shower.. High dew points (78°F) as a muggy reminder of what could have been IMBY.

We got 3" in northern Brazoria Co. yesterday. There was standing water in the back yard last weekend when I mowed the grass there. At least the underside of the mower deck is nice and water-blasted. Now, the entire back yard is pretty much under an inch of water. A little dryness would be welcome for a day, or two.

[jasons2k]

I don't know how, but the rain just skipped right by me again.

[BlueJay]

We are dry too. I broke down and ran the sprinklers last night...
What a difference a few miles makes!

[unome]

we got dumped on, still raining, though the gages don't show much - don't have to water

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/maps/

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/

[Ptarmigan]

It has been 116 years ago today that Galveston Hurricane made landfall. 12,000 people lost their life. There is also the 15th anniversary of 9/11 and 8th anniversary of Ike.

[srainhoutx]

It appears we may have an unsettled weekend and early next week as a combination of features increase our rain chances, possibly heavy with isolated totals nearing 3 to 5 inches as a meandering upper low inches Westward, a tropical wave that was once 92L arrives with its deeper tropical moisture and stalled boundary somewhere across N Texas combine to enhance storm potential.

Of note, there is a new tropical disturbance in the Bahamas that will follow the Upper Low into Gulf and likely keep things a bit unsettled potentially most of next week.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 091548
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1048 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The KHGX radar is down for maintenance. Parts are on order and
should arrive later this morning. However, there is a possibility
that other parts may be needed. In the meantime, the Terminal
Doppler at Hobby Airport is available.

An upper low was evident at mid morning over the western Gulf
offshore of the central Texas coast. An upper air analysis and the
RAP analysis of the 700-300 mb mean height showed an Easterly Wave
from about the Sabine south to the Mexican coast. Isolated showers
were already developing this morning and expect more widespread
action once the convective temperature is reached -- which should
occur before noon. Once again isolated localized heavy rainfall
will be possible, especially in locations where colliding
boundaries occur. Made some tweaks to the wind forecast.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016/

AVIATION...
Satellite showing developing (L)IFR stratus/lowering visibilities
forming along the I-35 corridor. This deck may develop further
eastward through 14Z, affecting CLL and UTS past sunrise. Scattering
out by 15Z with a weak upper low moving in from the Gulf creating
enough instability, with late morning temperatures warming into
the middle to upper 80s, to kick off widely scattered showers over
more southern counties. Depending on how much sun inland counties
receive this morning, thunderstorms may begin to cluster up during
the 19-22Z time frame, most likely impacting the greater Houston
area air fields into early evening. Scattering out through the
evening with returning showers, likely focused offshore and moving
inland during early Saturday morning. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The western Gulf of Mexico mid/upper level low will make its way
to the Texas coast today and meander across the area over the weekend
and into the start of next week. Deepening tropical moisture levels
will spread across Southeast Texas as this system lingers near the
coast and will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
A southward sagging cold front will become a focus for additional
storm development over the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall could
develop as boundaries interact with each other with location and
amounts partly dependent on how far the front makes it through the
area. For now, will continue to call for rainfall amounts through
the weekend averaging 1/2 to 1 inch with isolated amounts possibly
reaching 3 to 5 inches which could lead to some localized flooding.
Daily rain chances will remain in the forecast for much of next week.
42

MARINE...
The recently persistent onshore wind will continue through the day
before a weak inland front backs weakened winds to the east tomorrow.
Over the next several days, lower maritime pressures with weak
disturbances moving in from the east, will increase early week
shower and storm probabilities. This unsettled weather pattern
will keep higher rain/thunder chances around through the remainder
of the work week. Seas will generally range between 1 to 2 feet,
with a slightly higher swell of another foot arriving at mid-week.
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 90 73 89 / 20 10 40 30 40
Houston (IAH) 90 74 91 74 90 / 40 10 40 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 89 79 87 / 40 20 40 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...47

[DoctorMu]

It appears we may have an unsettled weekend and early next week as a combination of features increase our rain chances, possibly heavy with isolated totals nearing 3 to 5 inches as a meandering upper low inches Westward, a tropical wave that was once 92L arrives with its deeper tropical moisture and stalled boundary somewhere across N Texas combine to enhance storm potential.

Of note, there is a new tropical disturbance in the Bahamas that will follow the Upper Low into Gulf and likely keep things a bit unsettled potentially most of next week.

That mid/upper level low is already spinning off showers east of I-45. Very nice rotation on the vapor loop. Any chance of generating a weak tornado on the N and NE side?

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
144 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT.

* AT 143 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...
JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...
PINEY POINT VILLAGE...ASTRODOME AREA...SPRING VALLEY...GREATER
FIFTH WARD...FOURTH WARD...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD...
GREATER EASTWOOD...GREATER GREENSPOINT...DOWNTOWN HOUSTON...GREATER
HEIGHTS...NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON AND GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

[DoctorMu]

Impressive line of thunderstorms related to the mid level low closing in on Huntsville. Is there enough juice to make it to College Station?