December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit concerned we may clear out and winds relax enough for ideal radiational cooling. If those clouds on the visible imagery do thin out, I expect the possibility of a hard freeze potentially extending to the North and West Belt. Notice the snow on the ground to our North and NW across New Mexico, Southern/Central Plains as well.

[DoctorMu]

^Very low dewpoint, also. 14°F in CLL. Ideal for rapid cooling once the sun goes down.

Looks like a 3 dog night.


Ensembles see a hard freeze to Houston.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Feels great outside!!!

[srainhoutx]

12Z (MOS) MAV and MET guidance suggest we freeze again tomorrow night at IAH with temperatures near 27F in the morning and again Tuesday morning.

[Andrew]

Sun is out here strong. Clouds are clearing out pretty rapidly. Models could be underestimating cooling by a good bit it clearing continues.

[DoctorMu]

Feels great outside!!!

Our 11 year old Labrador loves it! Like the Fountain of Youth. Peaked at 33°F here in CLL.

Dallas never made it past 30°F. OKC about 20°F.

[srainhoutx]

Freeze rather far South into South Central Texas tonight...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1246 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2016

MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...
PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1246 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM CST MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...25 TO 31 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL SEASON COULD BE HAZARDOUS
TO PLANTS AND ANIMALS THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO COLD WEATHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.



Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
224 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Gonzales-De Witt-
Lavaca-
Including the cities of...Llano...Burnet...Georgetown...Del Rio...
Rocksprings...Leakey...Kerrville...Bandera...Fredericksburg...
Boerne...Blanco...San Marcos...Austin...Bastrop...Giddings...
Bracketville...Uvalde...Hondo...San Antonio...New Braunfels...
Seguin...Lockhart...La Grange...Gonzales...Cuero...Halletsville
224 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

...Hard Freeze Expected Tonight through Monday Morning across the
Hill Country and Adjacent Portions of South Central Texas...

A cold dome of high pressure will settle over South Central Texas
tonight through Monday. Temperatures are expected to fall into
the 20s across most of South Central Texas with a few protected
valleys of the Hill Country seeing morning lows in the upper
teens. Portions of the Northern Hill Country will fail to warm to
above freezing until around noon on Monday.

The freezing temperatures may result in damage to tender
vegetation and sensitive plants. Those with cold-sensitive
animals, or other concerns related to freezing temperatures such
as sprinkler systems, should prepare for this freeze now.

Breezy conditions will continue into late tonight to make the air
feel even colder, with wind chill indices in the single digits and
teens possible for much of tonight. Dress in layers, with gloves
and a hat. Use appropriate caution with space heaters. Heating
equipment is the leading cause of fires during winter months.

[srainhoutx]

Freeze Warning issued for portions of the South Texas/RGV...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
212 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2016

...LIGHT FREEZE FOR THE RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

.PARTIAL CLEARING AND A CONTINUED INFLUX OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO THE FREEZING MARK
LATER TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN RANCHLANDS
ESPECIALLY URBAN AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF FREEZE AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ZAPATA, HEBBRONVILLE, FALFURRIAS,
AND SARITA
212 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...TO FALL BETWEEN 29 TO 32 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND REMAINING BELOW FREEZING UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT HEALTH
HAZARDS. THOSE OUTSIDE SHOULD WEAR ADDITIONAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING
INCLUDING HATS...SCARVES...AND GLOVES. PETS SHOULD BE PROVIDED
SHELTER...AND TROPICAL AND TENDER VEGETATION MAY NEED TO BE
COVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY KILL OR SEVERELY DAMAGE CROPS
AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[srainhoutx]

Hard Freeze and Freeze Warnings issued for SE Texas...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2016

...A BITTERLY COLD EARLY MONDAY MORNING HAS PROMPTED A FAR
NORTHERN HARD FREEZE WARNING AND AN AREAWIDE FREEZE WARNING...

.A REGIONAL VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DESPITE PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY
WINDS...FAR INTERIOR AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL PLUMMET INTO
THE MIDDLE 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING AND
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. 10 TO 15 MPH NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE IN THIS
VERY DRY AIR FEEL LIKE IT IS IN THE LOWER TEENS ROUGHLY ALONG AN
NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO HUNTSVILLE TO CROCKETT LINE.

BRAZOS-BURLESON-HOUSTON-MADISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLLEGE STATION...
CROCKETT...LAKE SOMERVILLE...MADISONVILLE
255 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2016

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST MONDAY.

* EVENT...EXTREME COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

* TIMING...AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

* IMPACT...PROTECT THE 4 PS. PEOPLE...PETS...PLANTS AND PIPES.
FOLKS WITHOUT SUFFICIENT SHELTER OR HEAT SHOULD BE LOOKED
AFTER...PETS PLACED INSIDE...SENSITIVE VEGETATION COVERED OR
PLACED INDOORS...AND EXPOSED EXTERIOR WATER PIPES WRAPPED WITH
INSULATING MATERIAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT
OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GRIMES-
HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MISSOURI CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...
PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...
TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
255 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST MONDAY.

* EVENT...SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

* TIMING...AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

* IMPACT...PROTECT THE 4 PS. PEOPLE...PETS...PLANTS AND PIPES.
FOLKS WITHOUT SUFFICIENT SHELTER OR HEAT SHOULD BE LOOKED
AFTER...PETS PLACED INSIDE...SENSITIVE VEGETATION COVERED OR
PLACED INDOORS...AND EXPOSED EXTERIOR WATER PIPES WRAPPED WITH
INSULATING MATERIAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

[Ptarmigan]

Sun is out here strong. Clouds are clearing out pretty rapidly. Models could be underestimating cooling by a good bit it clearing continues.

Forecast models do not seem to handled winter events for Southeast Texas well.

[mcheer23]

18z GFS has the cold front coming through 12z on the 26th

[srainhoutx]

Sunday evening briefing from Jeff:

Hard Freeze Warning tonight for: Houston, Madison, Brazos, and Burleson Counties

Wind Chill Advisory for tonight for: Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Madison, Grimes, and Washington Counties

Freeze Warning in effect tonight and Monday morning for the rest of SE TX and the coastal bend.

Arctic frontal boundary has been well felt across the area today with afternoon temperatures struggling to reach 40 in many areas with brisk N winds of 15-20mph producing wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s. Pesky mid level deck appears that it will linger into Monday and Tuesday especially south of HWY 105 and this combined with winds of 5-15mph overnight will prevent the bottom from falling out in what would likely otherwise be a fairly significant freeze for much of the area.

Main concern tonight will be those counties in the Hard Freeze Warning area (criteria is 24 or below for 2 hours), think this area will likely meet that threshold with cold air advection continuing all night and the upstream air mass cooling into the 10’s over much of N TX. This will also be the area where winds will combine with the coldest temperatures to drive wind chills below the 13 degree threshold…although this is likely marginal.

For the rest of the area…cold air advection will fight the clouds and the winds tonight. Current arctic air mass is fairly shallow, but pretty intense with temperatures above the arctic inversion around 50 degrees…winds overnight will help to mix some of this warmer air toward the surface, but the upstream air mass is very cold and cold air advection will fight against the mixing to help lower temperature to below freezing for most areas overnight. Good news is that most areas outside the hard freeze warning area will only drop into the upper 20’s to lower 30’s so main concerns should be any tropical/sensitive vegetation. Only place where pipes would be of concern would be in the hard freeze warning area where temperatures will be below freezing for many hours.

Slight warm up on Monday with highs into the mid 40’s as the arctic high starts to modify. Better modification occurs Tuesday with highs into the 50’s, but could still see another freeze on Tuesday morning depending on how much skies might clear.

Weather going into the middle to end of the week will feature normal to slightly below normal temperatures with little chance of rainfall.

Next big storm system takes shape over the SW US toward next weekend with SE TX looking to be within the moist and muggy warm sector next weekend. Current indications show another strong cold front moving across the area sometime on Christmas Day so it is certainly a situation where we may start warm and end cold.

[StormOne]

18z GFS has the cold front coming through 12z on the 26th

That's what the 00z ECMWF said. Looking like you may have a similar scenario as last year, with a warm Christmas followed by a cooldown after. Only difference being that Christmas won't be HOT like it was last year. In fact, it may rain some, which is another unwelcome Christmas pattern.

[DoctorMu]

Made it to 34° high IMBY. Nowhere close to 40°F.

29°F and falling under clear skies. Close to 18 hours of insect crushing freezing temps or below by late morning tomorrow.

[CrashTestDummy]

Yeah, but the Mosquitos still seem to find a way to survive this weather and come out to annoy the living fire out of you when the temps get just a little decent!!

We're looking at upper-30s so far tonight. Hopefully the wind stays up so we can keep the atmosphere mixed.

[Texaspirate11]

34 feels like 25 at the bay.....how many days til Summer?

[DoctorMu]

26°F and 14°F dew point...wind chill factor of the same. My wife asked my why I was boiling water...as she put lotion on


I don't complain. Enjoying the change of pace around Christmas.

There's no shortage of 100°F humid days in a College Station summer!

[StormOne]

26°F and 14°F dew point...wind chill factor of the same. My wife asked my why I was boiling water...as she put lotion on


I don't complain. Enjoying the change of pace around Christmas.

There's no shortage of 100°F humid days in a College Station summer!

Gotta love it. It's only natural to want Summer in the Winter, and Winter in the Summer.

[Katdaddy]

Its a chilly morning across SE TX with mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the immediate coastal areas. Expect temps to slowly rise through the week.

[cperk]

30 degrees here in Richmond.