srainhoutx wrote:LOL...the 12Z ECMWF suggests sub -20's at 850mb over SE Texas.
LOL....I think it's been taking some of that flakka drug.....gone crazy!
srainhoutx wrote:LOL...the 12Z ECMWF suggests sub -20's at 850mb over SE Texas.
Interesting. GFS has Lucy teasing Charlie Brown with the football, with frozen stuff reaching a line between Hearne and BCS.srainhoutx wrote:LOL...the 12Z ECMWF suggests sub -20's at 850mb over SE Texas.
snowman65 wrote:srainhoutx wrote:LOL...the 12Z ECMWF suggests sub -20's at 850mb over SE Texas.
LOL....I think it's been taking some of that flakka drug.....gone crazy!
Sorry i put you on the spot.srainhoutx wrote:If anyone could actually forecast with that kind of specifics across our geographical area 9 to 10 days out, they are far better than I am...or making a lucky guess. Just too many variables at this range to accurately predict. Odds are always against us down here as we all know.cperk wrote:srainhoutx you think we have a shot at any wintry weather in our neck of the woods.
It's all good. You never know. Perhaps the Parallel GFS will verify...cperk wrote:Sorry i put you on the spot.srainhoutx wrote:If anyone could actually forecast with that kind of specifics across our geographical area 9 to 10 days out, they are far better than I am...or making a lucky guess. Just too many variables at this range to accurately predict. Odds are always against us down here as we all know.cperk wrote:srainhoutx you think we have a shot at any wintry weather in our neck of the woods.
Very good thing for them to say. And Winter storm systems, or any storm system for that matter, is near impossible to forecast until it gets close, or is already happening. In Lincoln back in early December, snowmageddon on 12/7 was looking likely, but with time, the models quit showing that storm. While we were all worried about the snowstorm that never happened, A light snow chance suddenly popped up on NAM, GFS, and Euro all at the same time on their 12Z runs for Saturday. We ended up getting 3" of snow on Saturday 12/3. So models are unreliable, and nobody should look at one run and say "GUYS, A(N) *Insert type of weather event that people get excited about* IS COMING," especially 9 days out. Should definitely be looked at, and not saying it won't happen. Something to keep everyone's eyes on, for sure. I would like to thank Srain and the rest of the mets on here for keeping a forum like this alive. Like I said when I left Houston in August (I'm on a plane back now btw), every city deserves a forum like this.The NWS in New Braunfels wrote: Although this
pattern is favorable for at least the chance of some wintry
precipitation somewhere in the CWA, one should not look at a
particular model solution as truth but study the many available
runs in the suite of guidance and overall trends as these
solutions are likely to change from run to run over the next
several days.
...and it's back over the north half of Texas in the 00Z Fri. Something's afoot as the window begins to narrow. A week away, but there is potential for drama...particularly because the GEM is in agreement.StormOne wrote:Case in point, 18Z GFS is dissing everyone, keeping the trough well to the North. Still too early to forecast anything for 2 weekends from now, and part of the reason most reliable weather sources don't go past 7 days.