April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ounce
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The GOES16 Infrared of Southern Texas is showing some southward lengthening of that blow torch starting around 8 a.m. It'll be interesting to see how much more lengthening occurs as the heat increases during the day.
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Rip76
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I did notice the line near San Antonio get a bit wider.
redneckweather
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I'm glad to see this was a hyped up event. My garden took a beating the past 2 years and didn't need that again.
sau27
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I have definitely been seeing some peaks of sun comming through this morning in SW Houston. Somewhat concerning for when the line gets closer later - will only add to instability. Also am concerned people in the metro will think this is a bust when that robust looking line with the front is still on the way.
Cromagnum
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It is a bust. A squall line is nowhere near as concerning as the discrete thunderstorms we were supposed to be getting all day.
cperk
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I think it is way too early to characterize this event as hyped or a bust yet.
Last edited by cperk on Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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New Tornado Watch coming to add Colorado, Austin, Waller, Harris and Liberty Counties to current counties under tornado watch until 6:00PM
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sau27
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Cromagnum wrote:It is a bust. A squall line is nowhere near as concerning as the discrete thunderstorms we were supposed to be getting all day.
As I watched one of the tornadic circulations go over my house on Wednesday, I'd disagree. Given the untapped atmosphere south of the activity this morning things could still pop with the line out west. The show isn't over yet.
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don
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I definitely agree with that also, the mesoscale models have not been handling the line of storms well, they seem to be playing "catch up" the latest hrrr hints at the line possibly re strengthening once it gets into southeast Texas.

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mcheer23
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HIGH risk issued for Shv
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote:It is a bust. A squall line is nowhere near as concerning as the discrete thunderstorms we were supposed to be getting all day.
The bust nearly busted down my fence a few minutes ago. 8-) Nice wall cloud and straight line winds about 55 mph.

No one's out of the woods yet.
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Katdaddy
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A significant threat remains to the N and NE of Houston metro.A rare High Risk area has been issued for E Central TX and NW LA. The potential exist for violent tornadoes in those area. If you have family, friends, and co-workers in those area make sure they remain weather aware through the afternoon.
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sau27
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Looks like the line is starting to break up giving the embedded cells a little more room to breathe.
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StormOne
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Yes, the discrete supercell threat busted. However, do not let your guard down. A potential linear storm system this afternoon could still be enough to produce a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat, thus why the watch was expanded. Continue being aware.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
Cromagnum
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Models I saw on TV showed a broken line of light rain rolling through Houston all day.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote:Models I saw on TV showed a broken line of light rain rolling through Houston all day.
That increases rather than decreases the risk of an isolated tornado.
unome
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sun is peaking out & heating things up here

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=srntx-02-6-1
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StormOne
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Cromagnum wrote:Models I saw on TV showed a broken line of light rain rolling through Houston all day.
That is one model. There are many different scenarios regarding the line.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
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djjordan
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1224 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
West central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 115 PM CDT.

* At 1224 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hempstead,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Hempstead, Prairie View, Pinehurst, Waller, Magnolia, Pine Island,
Todd Mission, Plantersville and Dobbin.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
East central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
South central Polk County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 100 PM CDT.

* At 1228 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Plum Grove,
or 9 miles south of Cleveland, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Shepherd, Splendora, Patton Village, Roman Forest,
Woodbranch, Plum Grove, North Cleveland, Tarkington Prairie and
Romayor.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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