June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[djmike]

Wow models sure zoned in to Central LA. Might end up high and dry and HOTT here in SETX. Was atleast hoping for some of that rain.

[bbadon]

I would expect the watches/warning to go up where the most immediate threat is. Then they will move as the threat moves. In other words I would expect watches/warning for most of LA as early as this afternoon when they initiate a pts statement. Not a forecast just a thought.

[DoctorMu]

Some of the models are saying Upper Texas Coast ( Canadian, UKMET, ECMWF, NAM). Goodness knows where, if or when this even happens.

I don't remember an environment like this before. Blowing up just off the Yucatan. Could be an upper level high forming over the western Gulf.



Nice split between the SW ridge and semi-Bermuda high.

[tireman4]

Until ( and the pro mets can chime in here) there is a fixed low, I would caution anyone to rely solely on the models. Let us get a fixed low and the models have extrapolated all the data from the plane currently in route before making clear statements. Just a caution. This could rain maker from Texas to Florida.

[DoctorMu]

Until ( and the pro mets can chime in here) there is a fixed low, I would caution anyone to rely solely on the models. Let us get a fixed low and the models have extrapolated all the data from the plane currently in route before making clear statements. Just a caution. This could rain maker from Texas to Florida.

Yeah, just get your popcorn out and sit back. If circulation gets under a potential high forming in the Western Gulf it could get interesting. Trough and shear guarding the gate right now though...

[Texaspirate11]

Its the lumbering lumux...
seems like its been going on for weeks...oh wait....

I guess by tonight, as srain stated, we'll get real information.

[davidiowx]

BUT BUT I wanna know now!! Uggh the anxiousness is stressful

[DoctorMu]

Info to come soon...

2 recon planes scheduled to fly on 2 June systems simultaneously across 2 days! Believe that is unprecedented in modern times (for June)


https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 4125168641

[jasons2k]

Until ( and the pro mets can chime in here) there is a fixed low, I would caution anyone to rely solely on the models. Let us get a fixed low and the models have extrapolated all the data from the plane currently in route before making clear statements. Just a caution. This could rain maker from Texas to Florida.

Yeah, just get your popcorn out and sit back. If circulation gets under a potential high forming in the Western Gulf it could get interesting. Trough and shear guarding the gate right now though...

There is an ULL in the Western Gulf, and the gyre is entrained in its SE flank, with lots of shear. That's why the convection is lined-up like that in the Gulf, it's being all sheared off. It's a typical June slopfest. It will probably remain very disorganized but there MAY be an opportunity for it to try to make a run at intensification before landfall, if the ULL can slingshot it around and then ventilate it. But it has to be in the right spot within low relative shear to take off.

RE: Claudette -- 2003

Not saying it will happen - still too early for that call, but it's something to watch. Still like the Euro but was surprised it shifted that much in one run. It may just be re-setting and locking-in now with the low clearing the Yucatan. Sometimes it will do that.

[Scott747]

This isn't a 'fixed low' type of system and may not tighten up for another day. I think recon will have a hard time finding a definitive center. This is the perfect setup for the new system and issuing watches/warnings before it's upgradable.

[tireman4]

This isn't a 'fixed low' type of system and may not tighten up for another day. I think recon will have a hard time finding a definitive center. This is the perfect setup for the new system and issuing watches/warnings before it's upgradable.

Sorry about that. I was just asking folks not to rely solely on the models.....the rain will be the story of this system.

[Scott747]

No worries.

However we are in the window where the models are doing a pretty good job of zeroing in a a 'landfall' point. I haven't checked what the latest tvcn track is, but would guess the first track will be close to that with the brunt of the action to the e.

0z runs should give a better idea with the additional data from recon.

[tireman4]

No worries.

However we are in the window where the models are doing a pretty good job of zeroing in a a 'landfall' point. I haven't checked what the latest tvcn track is, but would guess the first track will be close to that with the brunt of the action to the e.

0z runs should give a better idea with the additional data from recon.

Agreed.

[jasons2k]

This isn't a 'fixed low' type of system and may not tighten up for another day. I think recon will have a hard time finding a definitive center. This is the perfect setup for the new system and issuing watches/warnings before it's upgradable.

Good to see you around these parts You watching this one from the front porch?

[Scott747]

This isn't a 'fixed low' type of system and may not tighten up for another day. I think recon will have a hard time finding a definitive center. This is the perfect setup for the new system and issuing watches/warnings before it's upgradable.

Good to see you around these parts You watching this one from the front porch?

lol

I haven't been on a chase since Gustav and so desperate that I might get off the porch and drive a few hours for a 50 kt system.

[Texaspirate11]

Is there dry air coming off the coast of Texas or are my eyes fooling?

[srainhoutx]

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue · 26m26 minutes ago
Entire basket of EPS ensembles (12z) taking western route to spin off coast of Texas during next 2-days --> Gulf of Mexico tropical system.

[jasons2k]

Is there dry air coming off the coast of Texas or are my eyes fooling?

Sorta, but most of the dry air is entrained in the ULL in the Western GOM.

[jasons2k]

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue · 26m26 minutes ago
Entire basket of EPS ensembles (12z) taking western route to spin off coast of Texas during next 2-days --> Gulf of Mexico tropical system.

Ding Ding - we have a winner.

[unome]

positioned in middle of GOM, set to MSLP, change the options by clicking on "earth" at left of screen

surface https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

850 hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

500 hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

250 hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970