June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[ticka1]

time to step back and just see what happens..

[DoctorMu]

TW is doubling down:

TropicsWatch‏ @TropicsWatch 58m58 minutes ago
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Replying to @TropicsWatch
Ensembles suggest that the GFS guidance may be too far east with the NHC's "Three" (our Disturbance 6).

[Ptarmigan]

StormGeo's TRAC guidance (Threatened Regions from Active Cyclones) suggests PTC Three is Texas-bound. Almost all 50 of the ECMWF ensembles take it to Texas. The GFS is all-in for Louisiana. The battle is on! It would have to make landfall west of Houston for us to get much rain. And don't expect any significant wind even if it moves right over us. The tropical storm-force winds should remain out over the water.

One reason, I am not ruling out a Texas landfall.

[DoctorMu]

Piling on.

HurricaneTracker App‏ @hurrtrackerapp 2h2 hours ago
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We believe the NHC track will eventually shift W & landfall will occur along the middle-upper TX coast. Think NHC is too far east. #PTC3

[Belmer]

Euro has been consistent with a mid TX coast landfall.
NAM has been consistent with a near Galveston landfall (though latest 00z run has moved slightly East toward TX/LA border).
GFS has been (somewhat) consistent with a Louisiana landfall.

It will truly be telling to see the end result as there are so many dynamics at play. An incredibly challenging tropical system to say the least that is giving us meteorologist buying extra Advil...

[Scott747]

With the new initialization point I'd guess that the 0z gfs will come in further w. Hiw much will depend how it handles the ridge.

Also the new point and track delays landfall by 12 hrs or so.

[javakah]

Looks like only minor changes in the NHC's 10 p.m. graphics. Pushes it a bit further to the west while at sea, but now has it taking an even sharper northward turn towards Louisiana (pushing the center just slightly further west in Louisiana).

[Texaspirate11]

HGX DISCO THIS EVENING

Save for a lone thunderstorm rolling across Wharton and Jackson
Counties this evening, all earlier convection along the sea
breeze has dissipated. Lowered PoPs for the remainder of the
evening to reflect these trends, with minor updates made to
temperatures and dewpoints based on observational trends. Expect
overnight lows to fall into the mid 70s to low 80s under partly
cloudy skies.

Regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, satellite presentation
for this disturbance remains largely unorganized with most of the
convection associated with this disturbance located well east of
the center. The center of the disturbance itself is still very
difficult to ascertain with several vorticity lobes (or areas of
spin) over the central Gulf offering misleading representations of
where this center may be. As a result, the forecast for Potential
Tropical Cyclone Three will see continued refinements over the
next few advisories and Southeast Texans (especially those with
marine interests) are asked to keep up with the forecast over the
next few days.

With 18Z and preliminary 00Z guidance showing a rather broad
windfield in association with this system as it moves towards the
west-northwest over the next few days (and consistent with the
National Hurricane Center), have updated the wind grids Tuesday
through Thursday morning to reflect at least some influence from
this system over the offshore (20-60 nautical mile) waters.
However, even with these adjustments, no Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings are currently in effect for any of the coastal waters
between the Matagorda Ship Channel to High Island

[StormOne]

00z NAM shows a near-High Island landfall @ 990mb. NAM 3km showing a more Sabine-ish landfall, but still giving us a soaker.

[Texaspirate11]

00z NAM shows a near-High Island landfall @ 990mb. NAM 3km showing a more Sabine-ish landfall, but still giving us a soaker.

(yes...but its the NAM LOL)

[don]

The NHC isn't going to change the track that much probably until they see what the 0z global models show (CMC,GFS,EUROPEAN,UKMET), if the global models shift west expect the track to probably shift during the morning update.

[StormOne]

00z NAM shows a near-High Island landfall @ 990mb. NAM 3km showing a more Sabine-ish landfall, but still giving us a soaker.

(yes...but its the NAM LOL)

The fact that it doesn't show an overwhelming tornado potential is a good start

[Texaspirate11]

00z NAM shows a near-High Island landfall @ 990mb. NAM 3km showing a more Sabine-ish landfall, but still giving us a soaker.

(yes...but its the NAM LOL)

The fact that it doesn't show an overwhelming tornado potential is a good start

Okay I give it one point.....

[jasons2k]

Looking at GOES-16 water vapor, that ULL/trough in the Western GOM appears to be diving south now. Also, the dry slot is slowly moistening up. On SW the channel our PTC3 isn't moving fast at all.

[Scott747]

Decent shift already on the gfs run.

[DoctorMu]

GFS 0z looking westward and delayed.

[DoctorMu]

GFS run honing in on High Island.

North turn and landfall near Beaumont. Not quite capitulation.

[jasons2k]

The NHC track is now on the east edge of the 00Z Guidance.

[don]

Gfs has shifted a good bit west makes landfall around the sabine river it shows possible heavy rain into the area wrapping around the west side of the low as it moves inland fwiw.

[Andrew]

Going to have to see a pretty decent shift westward during the morning update from NHC.