June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[srainhoutx]

Hey guys, just lurking tonight, but had a question. Since most everybody has agreed that this is mainly a rain event, our real threat is not necessarily where the storm comes in, but how far west it carries that ploom of moisture and how quickly it gets pushed north, right?

Still looking like a sharp cutoff point as to how far West the heavier rainfall actually makes it into our Region (SE Texas). SW Louisiana basically along the Sabine River and on East is likely where the higher rain totals can be expected. The morning Updated 3 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast looks reasonable as of now.

[cisa]

Thank you srain. The main reason I asked was like when Rita came in, we received more effects in Montgomery County than many people I knew in Houston and Galveston becau of the angle it came in. Thanks for the graph. That helps.

[Scott747]

They nudged the track further e which will diminish the potential for heavy rains towards Houston.

[srainhoutx]

It appears the canopy of showers around the Western and Southern flank continue to increase. Still a lot of mid level dry air surrounding the circulation center, but it looks better than a few hours ago.

[Katdaddy]

TS Cindy is up to 60MPH but remains sheared across the N Central GOM with continued dry air being entrained. A band showers NW of the center will progress toward the Upper TX Coast today along with some gusty winds. Effects from TS Cindy for the Houston-Galveston areas look to be minimal with most of the weather displaced well to the E and NE of the center across the Central Gulf Coast. For SE TX 2-4” rains will be possible E of I-45 through Friday and 20-30MPH winds E of Galveston and Galveston into S Liberty County.

[djmike]

WInds have really picked up here in Bmt this morning...

[Cromagnum]

What a joke. All of that moisture and Texas gets to continue sweltering.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 92.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 92.2 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and
then toward the north is expected later today and early Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Slight
weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly north through northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast over the eastern part of the warning
area. These conditions should spread westward within the warning
area through early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning through
tonight from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[jasons2k]

My last update to friends and family - short and sweet, not much else to say:

Looks like a landfall close to Sabine Pass. Almost all the weather will be east of here. We may get a little wind and rain but that's it. No flooding issues here.

[srainhoutx]

The latest Vortex Message from RECON suggests this is no longer a warm core cyclone. With dewpoint in the center being 48F, I expect it to be classified as Sub Tropical Storm Cindy at 10:00 AM CDT.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 11:43Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 03 in 2017
Storm Name: Cindy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 11:09:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°22'N 92°13'W (27.3667N 92.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 197 statute miles (317 km) to the S (183°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,391m (4,564ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 28kts (~ 32.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 147° at 43kts (From the SSE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 128 nautical miles (147 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 128 nautical miles (147 statute miles) to the NE (53°) from the flight level center at 10:27:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 105° at 6kts (From the ESE at 7mph)

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the East along the Central Gulf Coast:

Mesoscale Discussion 1107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Tornado Watch 358...

Valid 211247Z - 211445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 358 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes near the coast continues
this morning. Additionally, new watch issuance may be required prior
to the 15Z (10AM CDT) expiration of Watch 358.

DISCUSSION...Although the center of Tropical Storm Cindy is
progressing farther away from the ongoing Tornado Watch, conditions
remain modestly favorable for a few brief tornadoes this morning.
Very slow northward movement of a warm front overnight has brought
weak, but adequate surface-based buoyancy to parts of the central
Gulf Coast. Combined with enhanced storm-relative helicity (noted
most clearly in recent KMOB VWP data and the 12Z LIX sounding),
low-level mesocyclones will likely persist in semi-discrete/cluster
modes within confluent bands approaching the coast. Indeed, KEVX
data likely detected a tornado near Fort Walton Beach, FL via a
dual-pol debris signature around 1120Z (620AM EDT).

Persistent moist south/southeasterly flow and pockets of weak
diurnal heating will lead to further inland advancement of
sufficient surface-based buoyancy this morning. However, the
low-level jet peripheral to Cindy will evolve westward through the
day, likely shifting the highest tornado threat closer to the
Mississippi River. While mid-level drying over this part of the
watch has kept convection shallower and more sparse in coverage so
far, the westward evolution of the low-level jet (and related warm
advection) today will likely combine with further destabilization to
foster renewed convection along one or more confluence bands from
Alabama to Louisiana. Recent visible satellite/lightning data
suggest the initial stages of this evolution may be underway across
the central Gulf. Considering the aforementioned environmental
parameters, storms approaching the coast later this morning may
still yield an increased tornado threat. Therefore, a new watch may
be coordinated within the next two hours.

..Picca.. 06/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...LCH...

[srainhoutx]

New Vortex Message just issued:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 12:53Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 03 in 2017
Storm Name: Cindy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 12:01:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°17'N 92°24'W (27.2833N 92.4W)
B. Center Fix Location: 204 statute miles (328 km) to the S (186°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,388m (4,554ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 21kts (~ 24.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the ESE (121°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 192° at 25kts (From the SSW at ~ 28.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ESE (120°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.39 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) which was observed 70 nautical miles (81 statute miles) to the NW (312°) from the flight level center at 12:23:40Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 350° at 7kts (From the N at 8mph)

[ticka1]

And Brett went poof too. Large waves in Galveston -hubby just text pictures. Said water is up in kemah too!

[don]

Looking at some of the computer models and the current radar trends starting to think that the western side could flare up pretty good, the Euro has been hinting at this for a few runs now and the mesoscale models are picking up on it also.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a more WNW movement versus NW at this time. Could be just wobbling along at 8-9 MPH. Center is about 200 SSE of Beaumont.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 211011
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
511 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Cindy may be exhibiting more subtropical
characteristics as the bulk of the main convection remains well
displaced into southern Louisiana from the main 995 mb low located
roughly 200 miles from Vermilion Parish coastline (220 miles
southeast of Galveston Island). Water vapor imagery depicting a
nice swath of dry air rotating along the backside of Cindy`s
circulation and wrapping around her east side...significantly
scouring out precipitation. The official forecast has TS Cindy
making landfall in the Sabine River Valley region (Texas-Louisiana
state line) sometime just past midnight Thursday morning...or
less than 24 hours from now. Western upper ridging will work in
nudging Cindy more east of west...with an Appalachian region mid-
upper trough trending to pull Cindy up to the north-northeast.
Buoy observations have certainly verified the existence of a
tropical storm as persistent sustained 40-45 knot observations
have occurred across the north central Gulf this morning. The main
threat from Cindy will be rainfall and WPC has placed our extreme
southeastern CWA (Galveston Bay, Chambers/Liberty Counties) under
a slight risk for excessive rainfall today. Winds will be the
secondary threat...especially across the southeastern third of the
CWA...marine locations surrounding Galveston Bay and points
offshore east of a Freeport line. Northeasterlies along Cindy`s
western periphery will pick up this afternoon with 20 to 30 mph
sustained magnitudes...with occasional gusts to 40 to 50 mph over
eastern Galveston...Liberty and Chambers counties from this
afternoon through mid to late Thursday morning (i.e., extreme
southeastern forecast area). Taking an eastern storm track into
account...with the model ensemble...has placed an average 1 to 3
inches of storm total rainfall over those communities along and
east of the Interstate 45 corridor. Feeder bands wrapping around
Cindy as she becomes an inland remnant low Thursday afternoon
through Friday could put down an additional 2 to 4 inches in a
short amount of time so going with a local 4 to 6 inches is not
out of the question for the eastern forecast area (although very
isolated in nature). The lack of any recent significant rainfall
has kept soil moisture relatively low...on average about 50% capacity
in the lower 10 cm layer. Thus...with the WGRFC`s Flash Flood
Guidance of 3 to 6 hour 4-6 inch totals...feel any 24 to 48 hour
flooding threat will be very localized in nature.

There is a good possibility that southeastern Texas picks up more
rainfall over the weekend than over the next couple of days with
Cindy...of course assuming she follows the aforementioned Sabine
River Valley track. Texas falls within a general height weakness
channel between the Bermuda ridge and a northwestern Mexico ridge.
The elements of a broad trough axis (left behind in Cindy`s wake)
within an unstable (lower sfc-3km 7 to 7.5 C deg/km lapse rates)
and very moist environment (2 inch pwats)...when throwing in a
sluggishly southern-sagging backdoor boundary...has this weekend`s
weather pattern adjective pegged at `unsettled`. This first
weekend of Summer `17 will kick off overcast/humid with light
east-southeast winds as mornings warm from the sticky lower 80s
into the lower 90s by early afternoon. Areawide inland low end
rain chances on Saturday will increase to more moderate rain
chances focused across the southern half of the forecast area
Sunday. The only positive will be that overcast and intermittent
rain/storms will regulate maxTs to around 90 F...the negative
(other than the rain) will be that weekend heat indices will range
in the 99 to 104 F range.

The next work week`s synoptic weather pattern will undergo little
change...southwestern Desert SW ridging and eastern CONUS troughing
still places the region in that inflection point between the waves.
Higher daytime POPs will be be centered about the Gulf Coast as
this is where the higher moisture/theta e ridging will be located
during peak heating. Convective temperatures in the middle 80s
should be easily achieved with upper 80 F afternoon temperatures
forecast each subsequent day from Monday onward. Overcast...more
periodic rain with a damp ground...should regulate late period
warming to the 80s for the majority of the daytime hours. High
morning humidity will maintain mean low to mid 70 minTs with mid
to late afternoon 50 to 60 %RH values equating to heat indices in
the middle to upper 90s. Hello Summer! 31

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical storm force winds will be moving into the coastal waters
generally east of Freeport during the day today and persist into the
overnight hours until Tropical Storm Cindy moves inland. This is
forecast to occur later tonight...possibly near the Tx/La border
(though always subject to revisions until it actually does so).
No change in the warning/advisory configurations.

Winds: 20-30kt north winds currently in the Gulf east of Freeport.
Elevated rigs just off to the east are seeing some gusts between 40-
50kt. West of Freeport, elevated winds/seas also persist, just not
quite as high.

Tides/seas: Currently running from 1/2 to 1 foot above normal. A 7-
11 foot 10 second swell has filled in across the coastal waters. We
are currently coming in and around Galveston Bay. The combination of
the 2 have produced some decent wave run up along area beaches.
Webcams show water/waves almost to the Seawall in Galveston - so
suspect the usual more prone locations like Highway 127/87 on
Bolivar, etc might be seeing some water close to the road. We are
coming out of high tide now so we`ll probably see some improvement
this morning. The next high tide along the beaches will be around
1230pm, although not quite as high, but it`ll be worth keeping an
eye on. Later tonight, I`d anticipate water levels to start pushing
out of northern parts of the bays as offshore flow increases. We may
need a low water advisory in parts of the bay and Houston Ship
Channel. While at the same time keeping an eye on north facing
shorelines of Galveston Island and Bolivar where the water may pile
up. Complicated scenario...

As Cindy moves inland, winds will gradually back to the west on
Thursday then to the south Thursday night. Moderate onshore winds
will then persist into the weekend. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Increased winds will obviously be the main aviation hazard
today/tonight for the metro and coastal airports. Otherwise...mainly
VFR conditions should persist for much of the day until we start
seeing some precip approach from the east & southeast later in the
day and overnight. Cigs will then transition down into MVFR
territory. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 74 91 76 93 / 10 30 60 40 30
Houston (IAH) 88 76 86 77 92 / 30 70 70 40 50
Galveston (GLS) 84 78 85 82 90 / 60 80 70 50 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Chambers...
Galveston...Harris...Liberty.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31

[djmike]

Not that it really matters at this point, but it looks like models shifted west a hair. Very miniscule.

[tireman4]

Although we do not know what the future brings from Cindy ( still, as of yet), I wanted to give another yearly PSA. First, thank you to all that have participated on this forum, both pro mets, seasoned amateurs and participants. We could do not this without you. Second, we can consider this a dry or test run of the KHOU Board Hurricane Season 2017 and how the information gets to the folks in viewing land. It is always good to get the information out and to the masses. Remember, always be vigilant, have your kits ready and always be weather wary...for any season or any type of weather.

[tireman4]

What a sight. Is it me or is it trying to form something....pro mets can jump in here.



http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-12-1

[ticka1]

What a sight. Is it me or is it trying to form something....pro mets can jump in here.



http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-12-1

What does it show - won't load on phone