August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[Scott747]

12z runs are something to watch. Not only for the lower Texas coast, but also for a continuing trend to the n putting the mid Texas coast in play. Stepping back it does appear there will be a definite weakness..

[stormlover]

CMC run really doesn't show a weakness.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[cperk]

CMC run really doesn't show a weakness.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

I noticed that also and find it to not be credible.There is a weakness forecast by many other models.

[BlueJay]

Historic Total Solar Eclipse is going on across our beautiful country!

[Rip76]

Yes, this is an awesome experience.

I believe I was 7 the last time this happened, to this extreme.

[davidiowx]

Pretty sweet experience with the eclipse! You could tell it was dimmer outside.

Euro comes in stronger and further N with the Harvey remnant. Now heading into S. Texas. It will be interesting to see if this trend holds true.

[stormlover]

almost by corpus!!

[srainhoutx]

I am a bit concerned about the inland flooding issues with a Tropical System combining with a weakness/shear axis from Tamaulpas in NE Mexico to just West of San Antonio close to Cotulla. Add a stalling boundary to the mix and the potential is there for someone across the Hill Country to pick up some extremely copious rainfall totals. The GFS output suggested the possibility of 20+ inches not too far from Uvalde and the Edwards Plateau. Both the 12Z ECMWF and GFS suggest very slow forward momentum after landfall along the S Texas Coast.

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

VERY INTERESTING!!

[Rip76]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

VERY INTERESTING!!

I can't see what's posted.

[davidiowx]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

VERY INTERESTING!!

I can't see what's posted.

Takes Harvey just south of Corpus as 996mb storm.

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[davidiowx]

This Euro run is unreal. I can't believe what I see. My brain won't let me believe that.

[Portastorm]

This Euro run is unreal. I can't believe what I see. My brain won't let me believe that.

I realize it is only one model run but yes ... very, very concerning. The 12z Euro shows rainfall totals over the next 8 days of 12-20" in Harris County alone, much of that falling late Saturday into early next week. My area of the state would get anywhere from 4-8". Pretty much Austin to Carrizo Springs over east to Corpus and up northeast to Houston would get hammered.

[stormlover]

and we still have 3 more days to watch models!!! 2 fulls days for sure!!

[ticka1]

What did the model run show was busy watch the partial eclipse!

[cperk]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

VERY INTERESTING!!

Wow that is an interesting run.

[srainhoutx]

Good to see the NOAA G-IV Gulfstream added for High Altitude sampling on Wednesday. That should greatly assist the guidance attempting to resolve the future track and that Ridge shifting West and the weakness currently expected across the Coastal Texas Region...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 21 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-082

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 23/0000Z                   A. 23/1200Z
       B  NOAA9 0609A HARVEY         B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
       C. 22/1730Z                   C. 23/0900Z
       D. NA                         D. 20.0N 92.0W
       E. NA                         E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1430Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[ccbluewater]

Hmmm. May need to cancel the trip to the deer lease this weekend!

[cperk]

What did the model run show was busy watch the partial eclipse!

HR 96 south of TX/MX border.
HR 120 inland south of Corpus.
HR 144 inland west of Corpus.
HR 168 back south of Corpus.
HR 196 south east of Houston/Galveston.