August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[Belmer]

Another feeder band moving into west Houston now - not as strong as previous bands. High-res HRRR model which predicted the 18+ inches in Houston last night intensifies this feeder band across east Houston by 10pm and moves it east into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area by midnight. Might not be too bad here tonight.

My forecast takes the center of Harvey across Houston on Wednesday (as a TD), by the way...

I'm concerned tonight will be a repeat. I'm watching the CAPE increase with the warm air out in the gulf, feeding into SE Texas. Once we hit nighttime again, that air is going to cool and those bands will just dump again like a ringer.

HRRR is painting a little better picture overnight.. anywhere from 3-8 inches. But NAM 3km which has done very well so far too is showing a much scarier different picture. So for our sake, I hope the HRRR verifies (or not... less rain would be great).

[djmike]

Thats not good for beaumont!!!! We've already received 18"-20" lastnight. Praying no repeat!

[wxman57]

Thats not good for beaumont!!!! We've already received 18"-20" lastnight. Praying no repeat!

No, not good for you at all.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston @NWSHouston19m
Thru 2 PM, Houston has a Aug rainfall total of 25.50 inches making Aug the wettest month on record, surpassing Jun 2001. #txwx #houwx #bcswx

[srainhoutx]

Another feeder band moving into west Houston now - not as strong as previous bands. High-res HRRR model which predicted the 18+ inches in Houston last night intensifies this feeder band across east Houston by 10pm and moves it east into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area by midnight. Might not be too bad here tonight.

My forecast takes the center of Harvey across Houston on Wednesday (as a TD), by the way...

I'm concerned tonight will be a repeat. I'm watching the CAPE increase with the warm air out in the gulf, feeding into SE Texas. Once we hit nighttime again, that air is going to cool and those bands will just dump again like a ringer.

HRRR is painting a little better picture overnight.. anywhere from 3-8 inches. But NAM 3km which has done very well so far too is showing a much scarier different picture. So for our sake, I hope the HRRR verifies (or not... less rain would be great).

[srainhoutx]

08272017 mcd1587.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1587
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Texas...southwestern
Louisiana...and adjacent coastal waters

Concerning...Tornado Watch 471...

Valid 272007Z - 272200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 471 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across WW 471.

DISCUSSION...The general regime supporting occasional tornado
activity remains in place. Although stronger buoyancy remains
mostly offshore and along immediate coastal areas, scattered bands
and cells within the Watch area are continuing to exhibit occasional
rotation and result in a threat of brief tornadoes. Harvey remains
nearly stationary, and this regime should continue well into the
evening hours and through the remainder of the Watch (07Z).

A brief lull has been noted in convection across a large part of
southwestern Louisiana. Previous convective overturning has
resulted in slightly cooler surface temperatures (around 73-75F) and
stratiform precipitation/cloudiness is currently limiting
destabilization. However, additional rotating convection off the
coast just south of this region will approach within the next hour
or so, and southeasterly low-level flow may lead to advection of
more buoyant air into this region and potentially result in an
increasing tornado threat returning to that region over the next 1-2
hours.

..Cook.. 08/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit breezy again up here in NW Harris County as the next feeder band advances East.

That persistent velocity indicator over portions of Waller County has been there for some time.

[srainhoutx]

Heads up folks near Mission Bend. Tornado Warning coming.

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 400 PM CDT.

* At 328 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Mission Bend, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Sugar Land, Stafford, Katy, Town West, Addicks Park
Ten, Mission Bend, Eldridge / West Oaks, Spring Branch West,
Meadows Place, Westchase, Cinco Ranch, Westwood, Briar Forest, Four
Corners, Cypress, Alief, Braeburn, Sharpstown, Brays Oaks and
Addicks.

[don]

I dont like the look of the radar now across the county, it looks like the rain may be filling back in...

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Catastrophic flooding continues across Harris and nearby surrounding counties.

Center of Harvey is nearly stationary north of Victoria with strong rain bands continuing to produce excessive rainfall over the region.

Recent rainfall of 1-3 inches has occurred especially in the ESE part of Harris County.

Storm totals are approaching 15-20 inches across nearly all of Harris County for the last 24 hours and 25-30 inches in the last 36 hours over the SE part of Harris County.

Massive record or near record flooding is occurring on nearly every watershed in Harris County.

Brays Bayou in Meyerland is nearing its 100-yr water surface elevation and many watersheds have reached or exceeded their 500-yr water surface elevation.

Many thousands of homes are currently flooded some with very deep inundation

[srainhoutx]

NHC issues Tropical Storm Watch at 4:00 PM CDT for the Upper Texas Coast from Sargent to San Luis Pass. Tropical Storm Warning hoisted for Port O'Connor to Sargent.

Very sobering folks. Please read this Discussion carefully...

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

The unprecedented flooding rainfall event continues to unfold over a
large area of southeastern Texas. While Harvey has been moving
slowly eastward or east-southeastward today, bands of heavy rainfall
have continued to form over the northwestern Gulf and train inland
over much of the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Storm
total rainfall amounts in the 20-27 inch range are quite common in
the Greater Houston area, and additional rainfall amounts of 15 to
25 inches are expected over the next several days. Rainfall total
could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic
for that area.

Harvey is still producing tropical-storm-force winds, with a recent
observation of 34 kt with a gust to 46 kt at New Braunfels, Texas.
The NHC track guidance is in better agreement showing Harvey moving
just offshore of the Texas coast on Monday, then turning northward
and moving inland over northeastern Texas by 72 hours. All of the
global models show some slight deepening of the system after it
moves over water, but given the lack of an inner core, significant
strengthening is not anticipated. Although a tropical storm watch
has been issued, which may need to be extended eastward along
the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast tonight, heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flooding continue to the primary
threats.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15
to 25 inches are expected, with isolated storm totals as high as 50
inches, through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials.
Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not
drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 29.0N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 28/0600Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1800Z 28.4N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 29/0600Z 28.2N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 29/1800Z 28.4N 95.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 30/1800Z 29.9N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 31.8N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Freeporttx3334]

You have got to be kidding me...what will this do to Freeport?

[DoctorMu]

I dont like the look of the radar now across the county, it looks like the rain may be filling back in...

Seeing a potential core rain setting up on the vapor loop - Prairie View, Bellville, LaGrange. The center of circulation is moving closer to the coast...although Harvey has picked up some dry air, the GoM siphon keeps feeding the beast.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/comp/goes/ceus/wv.html

Another rough night ahead. Everyone sit tight - tricky to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rains will occur - Beaumont, SW LA, north Houston, NW Harris, Liberty, and the Prairie View to La Grange arc look most under the gun.

[srainhoutx]

Just Updated Weather Prediction Center 5 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals. WPC Forecaster Roth just posted on Facebook that after 7 days of working Havey questioning would Harvey strengthen, are the models wrong, would his friends across SE Texas and SW Louisiana lose everything? He broke down and cried for 5 minutes after the afternoon conference call. Praying for our Region.

[jasons2k]

CoC just passing by Victoria airport, scooting to the coast at a decent clip now.

[texoz]

Just Updated Weather Prediction Center 5 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals. WPC Forecaster Roth just posted on Facebook that after 7 days of working Havey questioning would Harvey strengthen, are the models wrong, would his friends across SE Texas and SW Louisiana lose everything? He broke down and cried for 5 minutes after the afternoon conference call. Praying for our Region.

Sorry to hear that about Forecaster Roth. You, him and all the weather mets have been doing a great job. People can choose to heed the warnings, or suffer the consequences. Based on info here and other weather websites, and my 4+ decades of living in Texas, I knew something epic was coming and warned as many friends & relatives as I could last week. So far, everyone I know is safe, but some are suffering some flooding. Thanks again to srainhoutx and all the mets here and around Texas. You literally save lives with your knowledge.

It's going to be a long week. Hope you get some rest.

[don]

It looks like the GFS has finally caved towards the Euro, not good.... shows landfall around Freeport at hour 54 after meandering around the coast with very heavy rainfall in the area

[srainhoutx]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
516 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...Continued potential for devasting flooding over the next
several days from Harvey's rainfall...

.DISCUSSION...
Rainfall from Harvey continued to produced catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding across portions of Southeast Texas this
afternoon. Rainfall over the past 48 hours has exceded 12 inches
with a large part of the area receiving in excess of 20 inches.
This has led to a long-period flash flood emergency in these
locations.

Unfortunately, the center of TS Harvey was located just west of
Jackson County. Rain bands moving into SE Texas will lead to
additional heavy rainfall this afternoon and tonight. The rainfall
potential over the next three days is 15 to 25 inches with
localized higher amounts. Isolated tornadoes will continue to be
a threat in the rain bands to the east of the storm's center.

Stay tuned to the latest advisories on Harvey for the forecast
track of Harvey.

40

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Harvey is currently in the vicinity of
Victoria and is slowly drifting toward the southeast. It is expected
to re-emerge over the gulf around Noon on Monday and will remain
over the water for a little over 24 hours before it is finally
pulled off to the north on Wednesday. The tropical storm warning
continues between Port O' Connor and Freeport, and a tropical storm
watch has been issued from Freeport to San Luis Pass.

Bands of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms will
periodically track across the Upper Texas coastal waters...moving in
from the south and southwest. Gale force wind gusts and agitated
seas will occur in and around any passing strong thunderstorms.
Waterspouts will also be a threat within Harvey's outer bands. East
to southeast winds will range between 20 to 30 knots with average
wave heights of between 5 to 7 feet...increasing to 20 to 30 knots
with 10 to 12 foot seas when the tropical storm moves off the coast.

Extreme to strong rip currents will continue for a few more days.
Strong currents caused by river discharges into the bays will also
be problematic for navigation for at least a few days...possibly
into next weekend...given the record setting rainfall that has led
to the extreme inland flooding. 44

[mckinne63]

Just Updated Weather Prediction Center 5 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals. WPC Forecaster Roth just posted on Facebook that after 7 days of working Havey questioning would Harvey strengthen, are the models wrong, would his friends across SE Texas and SW Louisiana lose everything? He broke down and cried for 5 minutes after the afternoon conference call. Praying for our Region.

Sorry to hear that about Forecaster Roth. You, him and all the weather mets have been doing a great job. People can choose to heed the warnings, or suffer the consequences. Based on info here and other weather websites, and my 4+ decades of living in Texas, I knew something epic was coming and warned as many friends & relatives as I could last week. So far, everyone I know is safe, but some are suffering some flooding. Thanks again to srainhoutx and all the mets here and around Texas. You literally save lives with your knowledge.

It's going to be a long week. Hope you get some rest.

Thank you so much to the Pro Mets here for keeping us posted, even if it is not good news. Prayers for everyone affected by this epic rain event.

[Ptarmigan]

Just Updated Weather Prediction Center 5 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals. WPC Forecaster Roth just posted on Facebook that after 7 days of working Havey questioning would Harvey strengthen, are the models wrong, would his friends across SE Texas and SW Louisiana lose everything? He broke down and cried for 5 minutes after the afternoon conference call. Praying for our Region.

That is really telling.