000
FXUS64 KHGX 071553
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX
953 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Latest obs indicate cold front sinking toward northern portions of
the forecast area late this morning. Would expect the progression
of the front to slow a bit, but still should reach around College
Station to Trinity by mid afternoon, keeping temperatures there
and north a bit cooler than recent days. Not much in the way of
precipitation noted with the front at this time, but could get a
few showers to develop near the front this afternoon. Otherwise,
will not be making any significant changes to the current
forecast.
November 2017 : Quiet Weather To End The Month
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5271
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Issued by Corpus Christi NWS..hummm
000
FXUS64 KHGX 071728
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017
.AVIATION...
Not much change to previous aviation forecast package. Cold front
gradually approaching Southeast Texas from the north. Wind shift
expected at CLL/UTS TAF sites by mid- afternoon with other sites
to follow this evening and overnight. Will expect MVFR cigs
associated with the front. A few showers are possible along the
front but chances too small to include in TAFs. During the day on
Wednesday however, could have some higher rain chances, thus have
included -RA for CLL/UTS and VCSH for most other sites. Not
expecting flight conditions to improve significantly during the
day. There is some potential for IFR conditions at several sites,
but will hold off on including this as confidence is low.
&&
000
FXUS64 KHGX 071728
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017
.AVIATION...
Not much change to previous aviation forecast package. Cold front
gradually approaching Southeast Texas from the north. Wind shift
expected at CLL/UTS TAF sites by mid- afternoon with other sites
to follow this evening and overnight. Will expect MVFR cigs
associated with the front. A few showers are possible along the
front but chances too small to include in TAFs. During the day on
Wednesday however, could have some higher rain chances, thus have
included -RA for CLL/UTS and VCSH for most other sites. Not
expecting flight conditions to improve significantly during the
day. There is some potential for IFR conditions at several sites,
but will hold off on including this as confidence is low.
&&
I got a gut feeling that the cold snap we had back in Oct might be the about coldest we see this year. I hope I'm wrong.
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2411
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
snowman65 wrote:I got a gut feeling that the cold snap we had back in Oct might be the about coldest we see this year. I hope I'm wrong.
LOL, no. We are still 3 weeks away from Meteorological Winter.
I think people forget we are going on year 2.5 of a La Nina pattern after going 4 years of an El Nino like pattern (by the way, those 4 years were some of the coldest we have seen in a long time). It's just the nature of the cycle we are in. La Nina will deliver cold, its just short lived cold typically.
Last edited by MontgomeryCoWx on Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
Team #NeverSummer
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5271
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 080947
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Yesterday`s cold front has cleared the coast (Galveston`s
winds shifted from the southwest to the west northwest at
12:45 AM), and 3 AM temperatures are all now under 70
degrees. The area will continue to cool down during the
remaining overnight hours with sunrise temperatures ranging
from the 50s inland to the lower/mid 60s at the coast. With
north winds and extensive cloud cover, we should see little
temperature change for much of the day with high temperatures
likely having already occurred during the early overnight
hours. There will be a chance of rain across the area today
and on into tonight (higher to the north and lower to the
south) as a storm system moves eastward across the state.
This system will be east of us on Thursday resulting in
decreasing clouds and high temperatures warming up into the
60s. The area should stay mostly on the dry side for the
close of the week and on through the weekend as temperatures
return back toward normal early to mid November readings.
The start of next week is looking on the dry side with
temperatures warming back toward slightly above normal
values. Overall, the second week of the month will be much
cooler than the first week of the month. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Cold front will continue pushing southward thru the coastal waters
this morning. Wind speeds behind the front are generally in the 15-
20kt range which is in fair agreement w/ model expectations. Will
hoist the Caution flags for now, but conditions are borderline
enough where the dayshift may upgrade to an Advisory (which should
be needed tonight anyways). Nudged fcst seas up above WWIII and NWPS
guidance which looks a touch low later today and tonight. Winds will
slightly diminish as they veer to the east on Fri and southeast on
Sat. On Sun, winds will back to the east then northeast in
conjunction with an easterly wave in the Gulf and another weak
frontal boundary moving through. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
Cold front has pushed off the coast. MVFR ceilings will persist in
its wake for the next 24 hours or so. A series of disturbances will
be moving eastward across the state today and into this evening
providing chances of rain. Best chances and overall coverage should
occur roughly north of a Brenham-Livingston line from late morning
thru early evening, though expect some scattered activity further
south toward the metro area. Precip should mostly be light in nature
at se Tx terminals. Gradual improvement in flying conditions can be
expected Thursday morning. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 56 47 63 46 69 / 50 60 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 62 52 64 50 70 / 40 50 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 58 65 58 69 / 30 50 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
42/47
FXUS64 KHGX 080947
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Yesterday`s cold front has cleared the coast (Galveston`s
winds shifted from the southwest to the west northwest at
12:45 AM), and 3 AM temperatures are all now under 70
degrees. The area will continue to cool down during the
remaining overnight hours with sunrise temperatures ranging
from the 50s inland to the lower/mid 60s at the coast. With
north winds and extensive cloud cover, we should see little
temperature change for much of the day with high temperatures
likely having already occurred during the early overnight
hours. There will be a chance of rain across the area today
and on into tonight (higher to the north and lower to the
south) as a storm system moves eastward across the state.
This system will be east of us on Thursday resulting in
decreasing clouds and high temperatures warming up into the
60s. The area should stay mostly on the dry side for the
close of the week and on through the weekend as temperatures
return back toward normal early to mid November readings.
The start of next week is looking on the dry side with
temperatures warming back toward slightly above normal
values. Overall, the second week of the month will be much
cooler than the first week of the month. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Cold front will continue pushing southward thru the coastal waters
this morning. Wind speeds behind the front are generally in the 15-
20kt range which is in fair agreement w/ model expectations. Will
hoist the Caution flags for now, but conditions are borderline
enough where the dayshift may upgrade to an Advisory (which should
be needed tonight anyways). Nudged fcst seas up above WWIII and NWPS
guidance which looks a touch low later today and tonight. Winds will
slightly diminish as they veer to the east on Fri and southeast on
Sat. On Sun, winds will back to the east then northeast in
conjunction with an easterly wave in the Gulf and another weak
frontal boundary moving through. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
Cold front has pushed off the coast. MVFR ceilings will persist in
its wake for the next 24 hours or so. A series of disturbances will
be moving eastward across the state today and into this evening
providing chances of rain. Best chances and overall coverage should
occur roughly north of a Brenham-Livingston line from late morning
thru early evening, though expect some scattered activity further
south toward the metro area. Precip should mostly be light in nature
at se Tx terminals. Gradual improvement in flying conditions can be
expected Thursday morning. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 56 47 63 46 69 / 50 60 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 62 52 64 50 70 / 40 50 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 58 65 58 69 / 30 50 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
42/47
52°F and cloudy, turning drizzly. I think this is where we stay all day.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19673
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Definitely a bit chilly and raw feeling out there today as the temperatures seem to have dropped since 7 AM this morning. Had to grab a jacket at lunchtime.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Cold and wet for little league tonight, that’s for sure.
I just saw a report on the weather channel about a Greenland block setting up that "might" help give us a shot at cooler temps around Thanksgiving time frame. I know it's still a ways off Anyone care to elaborate on that? Thanks!
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2516
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
A chilly morning across SE TX with inland temps in the 40s and 50s along the coast. Nice November weather will continue through Saturday with a slight chance of showers Sunday followed by more sunny skies. High temps will rise into the mid to upper 70s next week.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5271
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 101717
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1117 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017
.AVIATION...
Tricky forecast thanks to the midlevel deck in the western
portions of the area mentioned in the forecast update below.
Though these clouds will not impact flight category directly,
their location overnight will very strongly impact the marginal
potential for fog overnight. In the meantime, look for VFR
conditions with easterly winds around 10 knots.
Tonight, it is likely one of two scenarios will prevail - either
broken skies hold and fog potential is mitigated; or the deck
stays west, and fog potential similar to this morning happens
again under scattered or clearer skies. For now, the TAF trends
towards a persistence forecast with clearer skies. MVFR
visibilities at CXO and LBX hint at greater fog potential there,
while other sites have VFR reductions or MIFG. However, it should
be noted that if these clouds hold, VFR conditions late tonight
and early tomorrow morning would be expected.
Luchs
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/
UPDATE...
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy
skies west of Interstate 45 this morning, with almost no clouds
east of the interstate where drier air worked its way into the
forecast area yesterday. Areas west of I-45 may see breaks or
clearing in the cloud cover today (given current trends in
satellite imagery), but forecast soundings for College Station
show moisture remaining trapped beneath an inversion near 800 MB
for much of the morning before thinning out this afternoon.
Persistent weak isentropic lift on the 305K surface across the
southwestern counties should maintain cloud cover for most of the
day and have lowered high temperatures there a degree or two with
less insolation expected. A midday update may be required to
capture the latest temperature trends should cloud cover erode
or fill in more than anticipated. Otherwise, expect highs in the
mid 60s to near 70 today with dry conditions.
FXUS64 KHGX 101717
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1117 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017
.AVIATION...
Tricky forecast thanks to the midlevel deck in the western
portions of the area mentioned in the forecast update below.
Though these clouds will not impact flight category directly,
their location overnight will very strongly impact the marginal
potential for fog overnight. In the meantime, look for VFR
conditions with easterly winds around 10 knots.
Tonight, it is likely one of two scenarios will prevail - either
broken skies hold and fog potential is mitigated; or the deck
stays west, and fog potential similar to this morning happens
again under scattered or clearer skies. For now, the TAF trends
towards a persistence forecast with clearer skies. MVFR
visibilities at CXO and LBX hint at greater fog potential there,
while other sites have VFR reductions or MIFG. However, it should
be noted that if these clouds hold, VFR conditions late tonight
and early tomorrow morning would be expected.
Luchs
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/
UPDATE...
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy
skies west of Interstate 45 this morning, with almost no clouds
east of the interstate where drier air worked its way into the
forecast area yesterday. Areas west of I-45 may see breaks or
clearing in the cloud cover today (given current trends in
satellite imagery), but forecast soundings for College Station
show moisture remaining trapped beneath an inversion near 800 MB
for much of the morning before thinning out this afternoon.
Persistent weak isentropic lift on the 305K surface across the
southwestern counties should maintain cloud cover for most of the
day and have lowered high temperatures there a degree or two with
less insolation expected. A midday update may be required to
capture the latest temperature trends should cloud cover erode
or fill in more than anticipated. Otherwise, expect highs in the
mid 60s to near 70 today with dry conditions.
I've given up on November for any cool weather. Still hoping that December to March is much colder.
Cromagnum wrote:I've given up on November for any cool weather. Still hoping that December to March is much colder.
Although the coldest air will be East of us, there's potential for colder Canadian air just after Thanksgiving Day. No freeze, maybe a light frost in northern counties.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5271
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 131750
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1150 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017
.AVIATION...
VFR. Drier air mass behind last night`s cold frontal passage will
allow only a few cumulus to pop up here or there...a thicker cirrus
canopy will spill atop upper ridging centered over Mexico. A weak
easterly breeze will veer back onshore by tomorrow afternoon. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/
UPDATE...
A 60-70 knot upper level jet translating across Texas will result
in periods of high clouds over Southeast Texas today. Have
updated sky cover based on satellite trends with high clouds
expected to remain thin enough to have minimal impact on
temperatures. Additionally, have also bumped up highs a few
degrees into the mid 70s to low 80s. No other changes made to
ongoing forecast. 11
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/
DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge across the eastern United States and lower
pressure across the Caribbean will maintain a relatively dry
northeast flow across the region (coupled with a dry nw flow in
the mid levels). High temperatures have been running on the upper
end, or above, guidance the past several days so trended grids
that way the next couple days.
Temperatures will continue to run 5-10+ degrees above normal
through the remainder of the work week. Increased humidities can
be expected Wednesday and beyond as high pressure moves further
east and allows se winds to resume. As the day shift pointed out,
we can`t rule out some isolated streamer showers, but continued
ridging & subsidence aloft will make things difficult to see much
of any precip of significance. Late night & morning fog will be
worth keeping an eye on.
Extended guidance is pointing toward a frontal passage late Friday
night or Saturday morning with temperatures returning to near
seasonable normals in its wake. Nudged POPs up slightly across the
southern parts of the area in association w/ the fropa. May need
a further bump once timing can be pinned down better. 47
MARINE...
Generally moderate NE winds will prevail today in the wake of a weak
cold front. SCEC conditions could also briefly prevail this morning/
early afternoon before things settle down as high pressure builds in
from the north. Winds should decrease tonight as the direction slow-
ly shifts to the east. Light to moderate east winds are expected Tue
and Tue night. As the high moves off to the east, onshore winds will
develop and prevail from mid week on through the end of the week.
Models are still going with the passage of a strong cold front some-
time late Fri/early Sat. SCEC or SCA flags are likely in the wake of
this boundary on Sat. 41
AVIATION...
Generally VFR as high pressure prevails over the area. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 78 61 79 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 58 77 60 79 63 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 65 73 67 77 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...31
FXUS64 KHGX 131750
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1150 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017
.AVIATION...
VFR. Drier air mass behind last night`s cold frontal passage will
allow only a few cumulus to pop up here or there...a thicker cirrus
canopy will spill atop upper ridging centered over Mexico. A weak
easterly breeze will veer back onshore by tomorrow afternoon. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/
UPDATE...
A 60-70 knot upper level jet translating across Texas will result
in periods of high clouds over Southeast Texas today. Have
updated sky cover based on satellite trends with high clouds
expected to remain thin enough to have minimal impact on
temperatures. Additionally, have also bumped up highs a few
degrees into the mid 70s to low 80s. No other changes made to
ongoing forecast. 11
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/
DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge across the eastern United States and lower
pressure across the Caribbean will maintain a relatively dry
northeast flow across the region (coupled with a dry nw flow in
the mid levels). High temperatures have been running on the upper
end, or above, guidance the past several days so trended grids
that way the next couple days.
Temperatures will continue to run 5-10+ degrees above normal
through the remainder of the work week. Increased humidities can
be expected Wednesday and beyond as high pressure moves further
east and allows se winds to resume. As the day shift pointed out,
we can`t rule out some isolated streamer showers, but continued
ridging & subsidence aloft will make things difficult to see much
of any precip of significance. Late night & morning fog will be
worth keeping an eye on.
Extended guidance is pointing toward a frontal passage late Friday
night or Saturday morning with temperatures returning to near
seasonable normals in its wake. Nudged POPs up slightly across the
southern parts of the area in association w/ the fropa. May need
a further bump once timing can be pinned down better. 47
MARINE...
Generally moderate NE winds will prevail today in the wake of a weak
cold front. SCEC conditions could also briefly prevail this morning/
early afternoon before things settle down as high pressure builds in
from the north. Winds should decrease tonight as the direction slow-
ly shifts to the east. Light to moderate east winds are expected Tue
and Tue night. As the high moves off to the east, onshore winds will
develop and prevail from mid week on through the end of the week.
Models are still going with the passage of a strong cold front some-
time late Fri/early Sat. SCEC or SCA flags are likely in the wake of
this boundary on Sat. 41
AVIATION...
Generally VFR as high pressure prevails over the area. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 78 61 79 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 58 77 60 79 63 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 65 73 67 77 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...31
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5271
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
521
FXUS64 KHGX 141028
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
428 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridging will help to keep the weather over SE TX gen-
erally dry/warm/quiet these next few days. Patchy fog during the
morning hours are expected today and possibly tomorrow given the
favorable conditions of mostly clear skies and light/calm winds.
Onshore winds are progged to return tonight, and slowly strength-
ening the rest of the week as high pressure slides east and then
allows the next storm system to deepen over the Northern Plains.
Not seeing any significant POPS for SE TX until perhaps the late
Fri/early Sat time frame with the next cold front. While dispari-
ties persist with the model timing with this front...will opt to
keep leaning more heavily with the ECMWF which has stayed rather
consistent with this pattern. However...cannot rule out the some
very isolated WAA-type precipitation early Thurs/Fri mornings as
as onshore flow prevails.
A cooler/drier airmass to settle over the region this weekend in
the wake of the front. But long-range guidance is indicating the
return of this cold front as a warm front early next week with a
slight chance of rain returning at that time. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Winds/seas offshore still warrant an extension of the SCEC through
10 am. Winds should gradually diminish after sunrise with seas
slowly lowering as well. As high pressure over the ARKLATEX slides
off to the east gradient loosens and today and remains relatively
light through Thursday. Then as upper troughing moves through the
Western U.S. expecting the gradient over SETX/UTCW to tighten with
southerly winds approaching SCEC. Cold front swings through
Saturday (though the timing is very much in question...GFS ensembles
all drive it through to the coast by 00z Sunday) which seems quick
so after collaboration with neighboring offices will slow it and
show a little weaker offshore flow Saturday night/early Sunday -
trending toward the ECMWF.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR for the most part other than some fog at the fog prone sites
this morning which could drop into LIFR/VLIFR before the mid level
cloud deck 7000-9000ft spreads over the area through 14z. Patchy
fog possible again tonight and should be mainly the same sites with
lighter winds as well.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 61 80 63 80 / 10 10 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 80 59 80 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 75 66 75 68 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 141028
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
428 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridging will help to keep the weather over SE TX gen-
erally dry/warm/quiet these next few days. Patchy fog during the
morning hours are expected today and possibly tomorrow given the
favorable conditions of mostly clear skies and light/calm winds.
Onshore winds are progged to return tonight, and slowly strength-
ening the rest of the week as high pressure slides east and then
allows the next storm system to deepen over the Northern Plains.
Not seeing any significant POPS for SE TX until perhaps the late
Fri/early Sat time frame with the next cold front. While dispari-
ties persist with the model timing with this front...will opt to
keep leaning more heavily with the ECMWF which has stayed rather
consistent with this pattern. However...cannot rule out the some
very isolated WAA-type precipitation early Thurs/Fri mornings as
as onshore flow prevails.
A cooler/drier airmass to settle over the region this weekend in
the wake of the front. But long-range guidance is indicating the
return of this cold front as a warm front early next week with a
slight chance of rain returning at that time. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Winds/seas offshore still warrant an extension of the SCEC through
10 am. Winds should gradually diminish after sunrise with seas
slowly lowering as well. As high pressure over the ARKLATEX slides
off to the east gradient loosens and today and remains relatively
light through Thursday. Then as upper troughing moves through the
Western U.S. expecting the gradient over SETX/UTCW to tighten with
southerly winds approaching SCEC. Cold front swings through
Saturday (though the timing is very much in question...GFS ensembles
all drive it through to the coast by 00z Sunday) which seems quick
so after collaboration with neighboring offices will slow it and
show a little weaker offshore flow Saturday night/early Sunday -
trending toward the ECMWF.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR for the most part other than some fog at the fog prone sites
this morning which could drop into LIFR/VLIFR before the mid level
cloud deck 7000-9000ft spreads over the area through 14z. Patchy
fog possible again tonight and should be mainly the same sites with
lighter winds as well.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 61 80 63 80 / 10 10 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 80 59 80 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 75 66 75 68 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$