Paul wrote:I am going to stick with the Dynamic models and not some much the BAMMS over 20N.....I am smelling a shift with the EURO tonight...and it aint left...
LOL ok then. If not left then right, but right where?
NHC track is in the middle of the road between the most likely track (NE Mexico) and a slight chance (northern Gulf coast). So it's guaranteed to be wrong. We went well west of NHC track and a lot faster, taking it inland about 100 miles south of Brownsville Wednesday afternoon (at 120hrs). May have to shift that farther south with time, maybe closer to Tampico. Building ridge along the Gulf Coast should turn it westward. Trof well to the north looks too weak to pick it up.
Paul wrote:I am going to stick with the Dynamic models and not some much the BAMMS over 20N.....I am smelling a shift with the EURO tonight...and it aint left...
LOL ok then. If not left then right, but right where?
wxman57 wrote:NHC track is in the middle of the road between the most likely track (NE Mexico) and a slight chance (northern Gulf coast). So it's guaranteed to be wrong. We went well west of NHC track and a lot faster, taking it inland about 100 miles south of Brownsville Wednesday afternoon (at 120hrs). May have to shift that farther south with time, maybe closer to Tampico. Building ridge along the Gulf Coast should turn it westward. Trof well to the north looks too weak to pick it up.
Except for the EURO the GFS has been talking monster FROPA all the way to mid- FL....but it is June so I will stick to the EURO for now unless I see a change tonight....
Hi guys! As a serial lurker and before things get crazy on here, I want to thank you all in advance for all the well informed information you put out there. I have been here since before Rita and so appreciate your knowledge and info that you guys share. I will constantly be looking on here for your insights and riding out whatever storm this season brings us! Thanks!
hey, great to see everyone posting! wonderful info as usual! love you guys. i've been lurking so far this season. and i lurked with all the cold fronts and snow this past winter as well.
just got a brand new jeep today and they told me i can't switch my insurance when there is a hurricane in the gulf! i told them i'd have to hurry.. i'm sure they'll understand my joke when they see the 10pm news
Well, how about this, our first tropical depression of the 2010 hurricane season. I think that it cetainly could stregthen to tropical storm status sometime tonight or tomorrow. I tell you that is one large depression.
that main plume is weakening now. the best convection is clearly concentrated to the northeast with a few smaller towers springing up around the old "core's" fringes.
Last edited by msp on Fri Jun 25, 2010 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
msp wrote:that main plume is weakening now. the best convection is clearly concentrated to the northeast with a few smaller towers springing up around the old core's fringes.
Perhaps this is what wxman57 was referring to when he said to pay attention to what was following this system?
msp wrote:that main plume is weakening now. the best convection is clearly concentrated to the northeast with a few smaller towers springing up around the old core's fringes.
It is possible that the center is reforming more to the North-East.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
I'm not even going to attempt to decipher the 0z GFS, except it gives us a lot of rain next week after Alex dives into a Mexico and some kind of vorticity is left over in the Gulf that heads towards the Upper Texas Coast.
I think that it cetainly could stregthen to tropical storm status sometime tonight or tomorrow. I tell you that is one large depression.
