December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Looking at the 12Z Ensemble Northern Hemisphere view for a week from this Saturday (December 23rd), I see no significant changes in the overall thinking in the expected upper air pattern. I always caution the use of individual operational runs of any given model beyond 3 to 5 days. Remember it wasn't until we got within 48 to 72 hours prior to last weeks snow event that the models came into some general agreement.

Responding to TxLady about your exterior hose bibs. It is always wise to plan to cover and protect those each year. Last December we had a surprise hard freeze when the forecast lows were the mid 20's and I ended up with 19F which wreaked havoc on outdoor irrigation systems and exposed water lines that kept plumbers very busy for well over a week... ;)
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snowman65
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Looking back to page 1 of this thread, srain posted a similar graphic about 7 days prior to last weeks snow event. How does it compare (or can it?) to this graphic 7 days out from the possible Christmas pattern?
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don
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the 18z brings back the winter storm(s) again with multiple rounds of wintry precip across the state and an ice storm on Christmas day fwiw

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Last edited by don on Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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16 straight runs and 17 of 19 showing cold straight into Texas!!!
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TexasMetBlake
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Hard to argue with that kind of consistency. 18z is also the most aggressive yet with not one but several rounds of wintry weather, beginning as ice and ending as snow. Interesting days ahead.
BlueJay
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It would be lovely to have white fluffy snow again! But, this possible forecast sounds deadly cold and dangerous.
ICE IS NOT NICE (unless it is in tea).
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snowman65 wrote:Looking back to page 1 of this thread, srain posted a similar graphic about 7 days prior to last weeks snow event. How does it compare (or can it?) to this graphic 7 days out from the possible Christmas pattern?
It's all in the depth of the cold that comes down. With severe arctic outbreaks around here the cold air is usually shallow, thus we get freezing rain or sleet. I remember 83 and the extreme cold, but I don't recall seeing one snow flake. It was just miserably cold and things froze that I had never witnessed freezing in my 15 years of life. This article has some pretty interesting facts about the notable cold outbreaks we've had and the precip that came along with each event. It explains the depth of the cold air above us at different levels of the atmosphere. We got snow last week because the cold dome above us was deep and freezing. That's why WXman was so sure it was going to snow because I believe they were able to test the air above and saw that the air was colder above us than the surface. It's also why when the snow started it dropped those temps from I believe around 40ish around my area to about 34 to 32 degrees. Anyone wanting another 83 event around here probably wasn't around to witness the extreme devastation that event caused. Not only to homes, but to the marine life in and around the Texas coast for many years after. It's interesting and different, but believe me we don't want another 83.
https://texashurricane.wordpress.com/20 ... -the-same/
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jasons2k
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Heat Miser wrote: Anyone wanting another 83 event around here probably wasn't around to witness the extreme devastation that event caused. Not only to homes, but to the marine life in and around the Texas coast for many years after. It's interesting and different, but believe me we don't want another 83.
https://texashurricane.wordpress.com/20 ... -the-same/
Indeed - I was in Tampa in '83 and Dallas in '89. In '89, my grandparents (who lived here in Spring) spent the holidays with us. When they got home, their house was flooded from busted pipes.

Both freezes devastated the citrus crop. In the valley, it killed the fan palms that lined the streets all around the RGV. It had a nickname - something like "valley of the stumps." (there is an old article I need to dig-up and post on this). The photos were pretty sad to see.

Anyway, it changed the landscape in South Texas and Florida for decades. Only just now, we are getting mature fan palms and queen palms around Houston again. I would sure hate to see them get knocked out again. Last year's 19F (at my house) was pretty rough on the queen palms up here, about a 5-10% loss, the worst loss since I moved here in 2005. That was bad enough for me.
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Who would want ice? Other than in tea or Dr. Pepper, it is good for nothing. Bad pics, can't play with it, no power or driving anywhere. Snow is much preferred with 20's or around 30 degrees at the lowest!
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i am waiting to jump on band wagon say next tuesday or wednesday. but with that being said - wont hurt tonstart making preps and buying supplies this upcoming weekend.
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redneckweather wrote:I would look for those temps to be much colder if an arctic HP of that size comes roaring down the lee side of the Rockies. Just this morning, I had 28 degrees at my house with ice over everything and that was with yesterday's frontal passage. It seems like just about every cold front this season has been colder than what was forecasted a few days in advance.
Indeed. Forecasted to be around 34 last night, and we saw 30. I always plan for at least 2 dog colder than forecasted, and if the wind speed is low, or calm, then even lower. This winter is turning out to be a real sucky one already. :|
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TxLady
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srainhoutx wrote:
Responding to TxLady about your exterior hose bibs. It is always wise to plan to cover and protect those each year. Last December we had a surprise hard freeze when the forecast lows were the mid 20's and I ended up with 19F which wreaked havoc on outdoor irrigation systems and exposed water lines that kept plumbers very busy for well over a week... ;)
Thanks for the reply, Srain! I think my grandson might have a "holly hedge hunt-for-the-hose-bib" game in his near future! ;)

Merry Christmas Everybody! :)
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MontgomeryCoWx
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0z makes it 17 in a row and 18 of 20.

Also reloads the cold air at the end and assures Texas of a cold New Year too.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Now that’s a gorgeous MJO forecast

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snowman65
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What happened to the GFS all of the sudden?? wow what a difference. I know it's just 1 run but....
redneckweather
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I was wondering why it was quiet in here so went and looked at overnight Euro and GFS. Now I know. lol
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redneckweather wrote:I was wondering why it was quiet in here so went and looked at overnight Euro and GFS. Now I know. lol
Don't we see the same hype just about every year? Here comes 1983 roaring down the lee of the Rockies, Armageddon is upon us, get ready for the coldest blast since the last coldest blast. I'll bet if we pulled up the archives there's at least one thread per year or at the very least a few posts warning about the Siberian Express coming down to break our pipes. Always seems to be shunted east or never materialize.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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GFS is still very cold with a southern storm.

Euro is coming around to the GFS but has the cold 24-40 hours behind the GFS.

Cold is coming, that much is certain.
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jasons2k
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If I had a nickel for every time Joe B said the ghost of 1899 has risen again....
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snowman65
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:GFS is still very cold with a southern storm.

Euro is coming around to the GFS but has the cold 24-40 hours behind the GFS.

Cold is coming, that much is certain.
So is the precip....if we can get them to work together...
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