FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[srainhoutx]

Always good to see our friends representing our SE Texas Region!

Jeff Lindner‏Verified account @JeffLindner1 · 8m8 minutes ago
Ran into a meteorologist legend...Dr Niel Frank...at the #westhoustonTLS put on by @JimMurphy133. @KHOU #hounews #houwx

[mckinne63]

Always good to see our friends representing our SE Texas Region!

Jeff Lindner‏Verified account @JeffLindner1 · 8m8 minutes ago
Ran into a meteorologist legend...Dr Niel Frank...at the #westhoustonTLS put on by @JimMurphy133. @KHOU #hounews #houwx

02102018 Jeff Niel DVsmOFnVAAALC1d.jpg

I think Jeff did an awesome job after Harvey. Always stopped what I was doing to watch his updates. Loved Dr Neil's weather updates!

[srainhoutx]

Always good to see our friends representing our SE Texas Region!

Jeff Lindner‏Verified account @JeffLindner1 · 8m8 minutes ago
Ran into a meteorologist legend...Dr Niel Frank...at the #westhoustonTLS put on by @JimMurphy133. @KHOU #hounews #houwx

02102018 Jeff Niel DVsmOFnVAAALC1d.jpg

I think Jeff did an awesome job after Harvey. Always stopped what I was doing to watch his updates. Loved Dr Neil's weather updates!

Make sure to follow our KHOU Weather Forum and our social media feeds April 3-7 at the 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference. We are planning some Facebook Live time with Jeff and Dr. Neil as well as others.

[mckinne63]

Always good to see our friends representing our SE Texas Region!

Jeff Lindner‏Verified account @JeffLindner1 · 8m8 minutes ago
Ran into a meteorologist legend...Dr Niel Frank...at the #westhoustonTLS put on by @JimMurphy133. @KHOU #hounews #houwx

02102018 Jeff Niel DVsmOFnVAAALC1d.jpg

I think Jeff did an awesome job after Harvey. Always stopped what I was doing to watch his updates. Loved Dr Neil's weather updates!

Make sure to follow our KHOU Weather Forum and our social media feeds April 3-7 at the 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference. We are planning some Facebook Live time with Jeff and Dr. Neil as well as others.

I will! Not big on social media, but do follow KHOU weather on facebook.

[srainhoutx]

Sharp temperature drop advancing SE across SE Texas. Brenham has dropped to 47F while it's 69F in NW Harris County. Take those jackets if you have evening plans. Breezy Northerly winds will make it feel very chilly quickly.

[unome]

86 in McAllen, 26 in Amarillo :O

it's heat to a/c to heat season

http://www.weather.gov/zhu/

[mckinne63]

Sharp temperature drop advancing SE across SE Texas. Brenham has dropped to 47F while it's 69F in NW Harris County. Take those jackets if you have evening plans. Breezy Northerly winds will make it feel very chilly quickly.

Yay for a real winter in SE Texas!

[Ounce]

It's made it to Magnolia, Montgomery, and Huntsville.

[srainhoutx]

A secondary surge of colder air is arriving this morning likely lowering temperatures and wind chills as the morning progresses. That secondary surge is noted on the metars wind barbs below suggesting gusty winds and lowering temperatures.

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A slow warming trend begins in earnest on Tuesday and continues throughout the work week. We may see some brief peeks at the sun from time to time, but with an onshore flow over the frontal boundary and our noisy sub tropical jet nearby, expect mostly cloudy conditions this week. Another front approaches next weekend increasing rain chances again, but the guidance continues to struggle as to how far S that front actually makes it. Current thinking is the front may stall somewhere near the Coast, but that remains to be seen.

A rather significant Northern Hemispheric Pattern event is fully underway this morning. We've mentioned the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event the past week or two and it is now happening. Mike Ventrice (WSI) Tweeted this morning about the technical impacts of this particular event and I will try to explain what impacts it may have on our sensible weather for the rest of February.

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 22m22 minutes ago
Here we go... the highly anticipated Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event has begun; 10mb temperature anomalies are approaching +4 standard deviations above normal over the North Atlantic according to my EOF analysis.

The attachment 02112018 SSW M Ventrice DVwOsUvW4AA_ZJZ.jpg is no longer available

The attachment 02112018 Temp anom M Ventrice DVwOsvVWAAA8iFE.jpg is no longer available

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 22m22 minutes ago
Here's what the vertical cross-section of temperature anomalies by time looks like; Note the GEFS forecast of anomalous warm temperatures propagating down from the stratosphere towards the troposphere.

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 21m21 minutes ago
Note the response in the troposphere... The NAO is starting to tank into negative territory (meaning Greenland blocking). This comes after months of being locking into a positive state.

Now for the potential impacts regarding our sensible weather. The overnight Ensembles are still attempting to resolve this SSW Event, but as of this morning we see Ridging off the West and East Coasts as the Greenland Block (-NAO) becomes established. As the Polar Vortex is crushed near the Hudson Bay that has been present all late Fall/Winter Season, we see cold air in Canada and across Asia build and a general trough into the Great Basin/Great Plains versus the consistent upper trough pattern from Hudson Bay in Canada back to the SW across the Plains. That subtle shift in orientation of the Upper Trough may have impacts on our weather in the Long Range. I believe we will see a continuation of the roller coaster pattern with additional Arctic/Polar Air advancing S into Texas as well as moisture. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) currently stalled in Phase 7 looks to migrate into Phase 8 which suggests a wetter pattern for North America. While I do not see extremely bitter cold air coming our way, I do see multiple shots of cold air entering Texas that could bring rounds of rain to wintry mischief as February ends and March begins. All that said...there will remain a lot of volatility in the various computer model schemes and the impacts of this SSW Event are not yet known for our side of the Globe. We will continue to monitor carefully as the days unfold the remainder of the month.

[cperk]

srainhoutx thank you again for this in depth analysis and the thought and time you put in to produce it.

[snowman65]

Bye bye winter..hello spring. Its time...

[ticka1]

winter will be around for 6 more weeks and the slower transition into spring weather begins

[Texaspirate11]

I am so over this winter.......
I wish Mother Nature's parade of cold would roll on by.
I'm ready for Spring - 70s - 80s and get over this nonsense....

Happy Mardi Gras Everyone!

[ticka1]

I am so over this winter.......
I wish Mother Nature's parade of cold would roll on by.
I'm ready for Spring - 70s - 80s and get over this nonsense....

Happy Mardi Gras Everyone!

did you read larry cosgrove’s post - severe weather might be replacing the cold weather here in se texas

[DoctorMu]

Wintry mix sneaking close to the area from Austin to Hearne and northwards.

We're at 33°F in CLL. Not sure timing will be right on top of the second surge of cold air.

[cperk]

Bye bye winter..hello spring. Its time...

I would not bet the farm on it.

[cperk]

I am so over this winter.......
I wish Mother Nature's parade of cold would roll on by.
I'm ready for Spring - 70s - 80s and get over this nonsense....

Happy Mardi Gras Everyone!

Followed by the 95 to 100 degrees no thanks.

[jasons2k]

It is mid-February. The days are getting longer and the average temps are on the upswing. The clock is running out for Jack Frost, thank goodness!! Bring on the spring storm season!!

[mckinne63]

I am loving these cooler temps! Feels like we are having a real winter. The summer heat will be here all too soon.

[srainhoutx]

A mixture of rain/freezing rain/sleet and some rumbles of thunder with pea sized hail nearing College Station. Seeing reports of icing issues on bridges and overpasses near Austin and NE along the I-35 Corridor.