ENSO Updates

[stormlover]

thanks for the response!!!

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

Ben Noll
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 8222089216

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Some key takeaways from the new ECMWF seasonal:

-Weak or moderate #ElNiño favored by Nov.
-Atlantic ACE at 70% of normal.
-Anomalous warmth this summer focused over NW & NE U.S.
-Transitions to a warm fall in the NE.
-Caribbean drought potential.
-Hawaii tropical cyclone risk.



EURO is forecasting weak to moderate El Nino.

[srainhoutx]

The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation...

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. All other regions cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation...

I usually take long term forecasts with a grain of salt.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 is the same. All regions warmed.

[stormlover]

what does all regions warmed mean?

[srainhoutx]

what does all regions warmed mean?

Note the warming is generally very slow across all Regions. For those anxious to call for El Nino by peak Hurricane Season, I believe a neutral ENSO state seems more likely. That said we may see a more Central Pacific based El Nino Modoki by Winter. Time will tell.

[stormlover]

thank you

[MontgomeryCoWx]

what does all regions warmed mean?

Note the warming is generally very slow across all Regions. For those anxious to call for El Nino by peak Hurricane Season, I believe a neutral ENSO state seems more likely. That said we may see a more Central Pacific based El Nino Modoki by Winter. Time will tell.

Modoki Nino's tend to be fairly generous to our area during our favorite time of the year... WINTER!

Typically cool and wet.

[Ptarmigan]

what does all regions warmed mean?

Note the warming is generally very slow across all Regions. For those anxious to call for El Nino by peak Hurricane Season, I believe a neutral ENSO state seems more likely. That said we may see a more Central Pacific based El Nino Modoki by Winter. Time will tell.

When there is a Modoki El Nino, the winters tend to be colder. 1904-1905, 1911-1912, 1963-1964, 1976-1977, 1977-1978,and 2009-2010 were Modoki El Nino with cold winters.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 has warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 remains the same. Region 3 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 remains the same.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed, except for Region 4.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. The rest are unchanged.

[Ptarmigan]

El Niño Watch
https://www.climate.gov/enso

Looks like El Nino could develop again this year.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 remains the same. Region 3.4 and 4 warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 remains the same. All the regions warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 remain the same.