Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[srainhoutx]

Latest

[redfish1]

Latest

thank you very much

[Hardcoreweather]

[Hardcoreweather]

Looks like a possible south Texas trip for me this week for an Alex intercept . I will let you know when I start streaming. Just don't ask me to keep the storm from hitting you cause only Cantorie is the storm shield

[srainhoutx]

You will not be alone James.

[perk]

Guys and Gals i think that northward component is starting to take place.

[perk]

By the way where's Rock. I bet he's out filling those gas cans for the old generator.

[srainhoutx]

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[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 271855
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1855 UTC SUN JUN 27 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX (AL012010) 20100627 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100627 1800 100628 0600 100628 1800 100629 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 90.7W 19.9N 91.9W 21.0N 92.6W 21.4N 93.1W
BAMD 18.9N 90.7W 19.6N 91.9W 20.1N 92.8W 20.3N 93.6W
BAMM 18.9N 90.7W 19.7N 92.0W 20.4N 92.8W 20.8N 93.3W
LBAR 18.9N 90.7W 20.1N 92.0W 21.2N 93.5W 22.5N 95.0W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100629 1800 100630 1800 100701 1800 100702 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 93.6W 23.2N 94.2W 24.9N 94.7W 27.2N 95.8W
BAMD 20.5N 94.5W 21.0N 96.5W 21.1N 98.4W 21.3N 100.5W
BAMM 21.3N 94.0W 22.0N 95.1W 22.7N 95.9W 24.6N 96.1W
LBAR 23.9N 96.6W 26.8N 98.8W 29.5N 99.3W 32.2N 97.7W
SHIP 59KTS 78KTS 85KTS 84KTS
DSHP 62KTS 81KTS 61KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 89.0W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 87.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Hardcoreweather]

Latest model runs

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... bbcddf.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Alex emerging off the Yucatan coast...a little less than 24 hours over land…

[Paul]

Steve, also at 999mb....its going to take off tonight I am afraid......

UKMET more north also in last run......

NHC will have to weigh in these other models at some point. I expect a shift north once again....

No I am not filling my gas cans just yet....Perk..

[Paul]

I did however pull them out of storage and they are staged at the front of the garage..not calling my parents who live in the West End just yet...dont want to freak them out with the model inconstency I am seeing.....

taken from 2K and the good Doc Jeff Masters. Sums it up pretty well....

Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana

Updated: 6:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2010

Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am run of the NOGAPS model, for example, takes Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 days period were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate the Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity.

[Paul]

20 guests is nothing compared what we had for IKE....The local media still saying MX on TV and radio so maybe that is why....

the problem is we had days to see IKE stengthen and watch the models shift....Alex on the other hand is a sleeper storm that could really take off once in the GOM. Intensity forecasts are like throwing darts and we only have about 3 days to watch...

[Andrew]

From AFM on 2k (should help with the movement conflict):

Shorter term motion is more to the NW. 6 hr motion is 305...3 hour motion is 330. Looking at the vis loop...the overall system is really moving NW. I think there is some bouncing around of the LLC...but overall...its headed NW. Also...the feature that appears to be headed more WNW is the mid-upper level feature. So its getting decoupled a little. Not a big issue since as soon as its over water the convection will stack it back up again. Looking at the hi res...it looks like it is very close to being over water again...probably only 20 miles inland now.

Who knows where its going...wish I did.

[Mr. T]

The inner core of Alex has really been tarnished. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for Alex to regain its previous intensity

[Paul]

The inner core of Alex has really been tarnished. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for Alex to regain its previous intensity

SST's wont the problem....I have a gut feeling it wont be long. Its still around 999mb -1000mb....

[biggerbyte]

20 guests is nothing compared what we had for IKE....The local media still saying MX on TV and radio so maybe that is why....

the problem is we had days to see IKE stengthen and watch the models shift....Alex on the other hand is a sleeper storm that could really take off once in the GOM. Intensity forecasts are like throwing darts and we only have about 3 days to watch...

I'm really worried about the lack of responsibilty to inform folks of the potentials. One should never hang their hat on one solution in the long term. What happens when suddenly they announce the big oops.. I just hear Doc telling it like it is. He used the models for what they were intended, and he never commited to just one solution.

Hint!

Walmart currently has plenty of supplies.

[Baseballdude2915]

Alex should become a man in the next 24 hours.
Probably hurricane by Monday Night/Midnight.

IMO, We probably could stick with what models we have now. The motion of Alex over the next 24-36 hours will give us a MUCH better idea where he is headed. Tonight we will need to watch what motion he takes once he gets both feet back into the water. The initial direction will be key in which model becomes the winner of this unsolved mystery. Model watching will be fun tonight and tomorrow night then its pretty much a Nowcast situtation.

[srainhoutx]

Just had a chance to look at High Res VIS satellite imagery. It does appear that a more NW motion is occurring. Also Alex has its feet wet again in the BoC. Convection to the SW of the center is developing and also seeing some convection forming around the LLC. We shall see if this trend continues.