July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances

[Andrew]

Starting to see a long band of increasing showers/storms with rainfall rates increasing to near 1.5 per half hour located near NE Harris County/Liberty County line on down the I-69 Corridor to near Brazoria/Lake Jackson/Freeport/Angleton. A weak surface low is located SE of Galveston and S of Sabine Pass with an 850mb vort located near Liberty County. Rainfall, so very heavy should increase as the morning wears on and slowly increase in areal coverage.

Still nearly a bust up here in College Station. Just a trace, and not much on the radar above between Brenham and Navasota. The grass is in poor shape. At least it is cloudy and cooler.

Eh, you still have a chance later today and especially over the next week. I would be shocked if you don't get anything from it all.

[Andrew]

Freedom over Texas canceled for tonight

http://abc13.com/amp/community-events/f ... s/3700935/

[srainhoutx]

Not surprised they cancelled the Fireworks along Buffalo Bayou. Never a good sign when I-10 goes underwater at the railroad overpass before the West Loop.

[Cromagnum]

Not surprised they cancelled the Fireworks along Buffalo Bayou. Never a good sign when I-10 goes underwater at the railroad overpass before the West Loop.

And yet morons want to redesign to have major arteries of downtown at ground level.

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Update from Jeff:

Flood event continues over Harris County

Widespread rainfall of 5-7.5 inches has occurred across the central portion of Harris County with 3-4 inches from NC Harris County to SW Harris County.

Tropical low over Harris County is moving slowly westward and is spreading the heavy rainfall into the NW/W parts of the county. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible over the next few hours with isolated totals of 3-4 inches possible.

Several bayous are very high:
Willow Waterhole
Brickhouse Gully
Halls
Garners
P138 (tributary to Greens)
Briar Branch
Turkey Creek

Watching:
White Oak
Brays
Buffalo
Hunting

[Texaspirate11]

FIREWORKS STILL GOING ON - JUST CANT GET ON THE SITE

[srainhoutx]

Freedom over Texas canceled for tonight

http://abc13.com/amp/community-events/f ... s/3700935/

Fireworks will go on according to Update. All concerts cancelled! Nearing 5 inches in NW Harris County and still raining.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports White Oak Bayou at I-10 about to begin impacting Main lanes. Also Hunting Bayou @ I-10 may be nearing homes

[mckinne63]

It has been raining non stop here for a few hours now. Draining the pool and the pond. Here in Stafford it hasn't been as heavy on the radar as I have seen in other places, but still getting plenty of water.

[srainhoutx]

New Mesoscale Discussion coming shortly from the WPC and likely Senior Forecaster Roth

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0401
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 041806Z - 050006Z

SUMMARY...A CONVECTIVE LOW IS RETROGRADING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
FROM SOUTHEAST TX. HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO 3" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO
5" ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A WARM CORE, DEEP LAYER LOW IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
COLLEGE STATION TX AS OF 17Z, WHICH IS EXPERIENCING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN RETROGRADING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX, AND HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING 4-8" OF RAIN LOCALLY IN AND NEAR HOUSTON AND BEAUMONT
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.5" RESIDE WITH
THIS LOW. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS CYCLONIC AND 15-25 KTS PER VAD
WIND PROFILES. ML CAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST TO ITS WEST AND SOUTH,
IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND ACROSS
CENTRAL TX. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 KTS LIES TO THE WEST OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH HAS OCCASIONALLY CAUSED CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE
INTO INFLOW BANDS IN ITS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS.

THE EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD
WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION, SOMETIMES BANDED, WITHIN ITS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE BEST INSTABILITY. THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR 3-5" THROUGH 00Z. THE 12Z HREF
PROBABILITIES OF 1"+ OF RAIN AN HOUR SUGGEST 00Z SHOULD BE WITHIN
THE WANING HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE 850 HPA AND SURFACE
REFLECTIONS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/DEGENERATE INTO
AN INVERTED TROUGH SOMEWHAT INLAND OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST. IN THE
MEANTIME, HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO 3" AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 5" REMAIN
POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD BE MOST PROBLEMATIC IN URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...

[Andrew]

Jeff reports White Oak Bayou at I-10 about to begin impacting Main lanes. Also Hunting Bayou @ I-10 may be nearing homes

[DoctorMu]

Jeff reports White Oak Bayou at I-10 about to begin impacting Main lanes. Also Hunting Bayou @ I-10 may be nearing homes

Yeah - stay home and send the rain up here!

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
118 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-
118 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT.

* AT 118 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SEALY, BROOKSHIRE, SAN FELIPE AND PATTISON.

[srainhoutx]

Now we're getting rumbles of thunder across NW Harris County under the low

[Rip76]

I noticed this earlier as well.

[DoctorMu]

Starting to see a long band of increasing showers/storms with rainfall rates increasing to near 1.5 per half hour located near NE Harris County/Liberty County line on down the I-69 Corridor to near Brazoria/Lake Jackson/Freeport/Angleton. A weak surface low is located SE of Galveston and S of Sabine Pass with an 850mb vort located near Liberty County. Rainfall, so very heavy should increase as the morning wears on and slowly increase in areal coverage.

Still nearly a bust up here in College Station. Just a trace, and not much on the radar above between Brenham and Navasota. The grass is in poor shape. At least it is cloudy and cooler.

Eh, you still have a chance later today and especially over the next week. I would be shocked if you don't get anything from it all.

Maybe a few brief showers today. Impulses under the ridge from Friday through Monday may yield scattered showers. We haven't had much rain for the last 2 months - fingers crossed before the death ridge settles back in in the last half of July and August.

[srainhoutx]

A little too far out in the future to get worked up over, but there signs that around the second week of August, the Tropics may heat up, particularly in the Western Basin for about a 3 week period. I will post more about that possibility in our Hurricane Central Section later next week.

[ticka1]

Freedom over Texas canceled for tonight

http://abc13.com/amp/community-events/f ... s/3700935/

Fireworks will go on according to Update. All concerts cancelled! Nearing 5 inches in NW Harris County and still raining.

no onsite viewing of firewoks

[Andrew]

Starting to see a long band of increasing showers/storms with rainfall rates increasing to near 1.5 per half hour located near NE Harris County/Liberty County line on down the I-69 Corridor to near Brazoria/Lake Jackson/Freeport/Angleton. A weak surface low is located SE of Galveston and S of Sabine Pass with an 850mb vort located near Liberty County. Rainfall, so very heavy should increase as the morning wears on and slowly increase in areal coverage.

Still nearly a bust up here in College Station. Just a trace, and not much on the radar above between Brenham and Navasota. The grass is in poor shape. At least it is cloudy and cooler.

Eh, you still have a chance later today and especially over the next week. I would be shocked if you don't get anything from it all.

Maybe a few brief showers today. Impulses under the ridge from Friday through Monday may yield scattered showers. We haven't had much rain for the last 2 months - fingers crossed before the death ridge settles back in in the last half of July and August.

I think this weekend coverage should be pretty good across the area as some rather potent shortwaves are going to retrograde across the gulf coast. Plus a weak front may approach from the northeast and make it over the northeast part of the state this weekend, providing more outflow boundaries to take advantage of. Ill keep my fingers crossed for you.

[don]

I wouldn’t be surprised if we have another flash flood watch issued over the next few days, due to the saturated grounds.We will have the watch the disturbances over the next week or so for any more heavy rainfall potential.