SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[srainhoutx]

Still 6 Days away, but the WPC surface charts suggest a weak low near Galveston...

[Rip76]

Interesting.

[Andrew]

Still not seeing much of a threat from this tropical wave. Upper level does not look very favorable with multiple areas of shear and PV streamers across the gulf and Western Atlantic. Luckily, I do think it will increase our chances of rain and which is still needed for our region.

[stormlover]

Ukmet on board towards Texas, cmc towards Texas, icon towards Texas, rgem develops this through Florida straits

[Andrew]

ECMWF coming in stronger so far @72hours so far.

Edit to add that through 96H it has a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane going into Eastern Louisiana. A little skeptical about that idea but something that will need to be monitored.

[stormlover]

Looks like New Orleans

[Andrew]

ECMWF after landfall pushes the storm to the southwest after landfall as it gets stuck under ridging to the north. This trend will have to be watched over the next day to see if it continues or if other models begin to catch on. ECMWF shows a much more favorable upper level environment.

Edit: So it goes without saying, but I caution people to attach themselves to one model run. With that said, ECMWF shows probably worst case scenario with the storm riding the coastline and stalling over central Texas. Again something to watch.

[Cpv17]

First post here guys, but we definitely don’t want the latest run of the Euro to verify. That would not be good for SETX whatsoever.

[Texaspirate11]

I guess its a lousy time to say I've always backed the euro
It'll be quite interesting today..............

[don]

The NHC has raised the chances to medium (40%)....

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Florence, located about a couple of hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
numerous showers and thunderstorms from Hispaniola northward across
the Turks and Caicos Islands. This activity is forecast to spread
west-northwestward, enhancing rainfall across Hispaniola, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas this weekend, and across Florida
and the northern Gulf of Mexico coast by early next week. Strong
upper-level winds will likely prevent significant development of
this system during the next couple of days, but environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for a
surface low pressure area to form when the disturbance moves across
the Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[srainhoutx]

It's time to shake off the memories of last year and begin focusing on the potential challenges of the week ahead. I tend to get a bit more concerned when typically very conservative NHC Forecaster Avila ramps up wording in the Tropical Weather Outlook. Look for an Invest designation later today as well as the uptick in activity if the trends continue to favor development along the Louisiana/Texas Gulf Coast mid next week.

[cperk]

That's a significant increase from the previous package,certainly gets my attention.

[srainhoutx]

Saturday morning briefing from Jeff:

NHC has increased the chances for tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days to 40%.

Tropical wave nearing the SE Bahamas this morning will be moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week where upper level winds are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Several global models now show the formation of at least a tropical storm along with many more of the ensemble members. The overall potential appears to be increasing that a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico from the Tuesday-Thursday period and threaten the US Gulf coast. Since there is no defined surface low pressure system and it is uncertain where an actual center may form which will dictate the track. Building high pressure over the US east coast this week will likely force a WNW motion across the Gulf of Mexico and how fast and strong this high builds westward next week will determine if the system get trapped to the south of this feature or is able to get picked up by an upper level trough over the central plains. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico look fairly favorable for development so it will need to be watched closely.

Will not make any changes to the local forecasts at this time since the uncertainty remains high…but a wet pattern will be developing today-Monday as a tropical wave south of the LA coast moves into the area. Rainfall amounts over the next 3 days may average 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches.

Residents along the TX/LA coasts should monitor the progress of the tropical wave over the next 5 days…check forecasts at least once daily.

[ccbluewater]

Well that escalated rather quickly. Interested to see if the next Euro run shows a similar solution, or backs off. Big change from yesterday though with now almost all of the models showing development. The state could use the rain, just don't want to see a deluge like the Euro was showing.

[Scott747]

The biggest change overnight wasn't so much the Euro but the cmc and ukie finally showing something.

Really had no choice but to show something potentially getting further West.

[srainhoutx]

One BIG reason we always pay close attention during this time of year in the Tropics is that climatology over the past 150+ years tells us even in an inactive Season, things perk up as September begins. This year is showing us that climatology typically offers a clue to when the Hemispheric Pattern becomes conducive for Tropical Development.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This sucks. Houston can have the rain, but stay away from CS Next Friday-Saturday

[srainhoutx]

Inspecting GOES 16 imagery, perhaps a mid level spin is developing just N of Haiti and just SE of the Turks and Caicos Islands in the SE Bahamas.

[jasons2k]

Euro model showing almost 30" of rain to our SW, and a large area of 20"+. Looks eerily similar to Harvey.

[Aggie Mom]

New to posting, not to the board. Been lurking for as long as I can remember, just never brave enough to post. I do have a question for those of you with better memories than me...which model was the one that got Harvey right? And in situations like this possible tropical system, would that model be considered "reliable"? Thanks for any input!