SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[unome]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
344 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Light rain is continuing across portions of the area this afternoon. This rainfall won`t cause any additional flooding but could slow the recession in already flooded areas. A couple of sites near the coast have measured over 10 inches of rain since around 1 am this morning, and we`ve had many reports of impassable flooded roads across Galveston Island.

While things are winding down for now, it looks like there could be another round of some moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. Forecast PWs around 2.2-2.4 inches, a potential coastal convergence zone, and some weak upper level support all combined together are enough to warrant extending the Flash Flood Watch for the coastal areas through noon tomorrow. Overall coverage and totals are not expected to be as high as today, however the already saturated soils in the watch area will be very sensitive to any additional rainfall. The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled for areas further inland.

Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the extended portion of the forecast. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected most days with abundant tropical moisture in place. We`re continuing to monitor Tropical Storm Gordon in the eastern Gulf, but only minimal, if any, impacts are expected for SE Texas at this time.

11

&&

.MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds can be expected this week and on into the weekend. Look for periods of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight through Tuesday morning. At this time, the only effects from Tropical Storm Gordon across the marine area are possible swells toward the middle of the week. Mariners are urged to closely monitor the progress of Gordon as it moves across
the Gulf. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 89 74 93 74 / 30 50 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 76 86 76 92 76 / 50 60 20 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 84 80 87 81 / 70 70 40 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for the following zones: Brazoria Islands... Chambers... Coastal Brazoria... Coastal Galveston... Coastal Harris... Coastal Matagorda... Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula... Inland Brazoria... Inland Galveston... Inland Matagorda... Matagorda Islands... Southern Liberty.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...42

[srainhoutx]

Not seeing any significant changes ahead through at least mid September. The afternoon CPC Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks keep rain in the forecast daily. The MJO has enter Phase 1 which tends to allow raising air to continue which is conducive to thunderstorm development and a Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave is overhead further aiding in those storms to develop. We might need to keep an eye down in the Bay of Campeche as the Southern end of a tropical wave is firing off strong thunderstorms over the Yucatan.

[Cpv17]

Not seeing any significant changes ahead through at least mid September. The afternoon CPC Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks keep rain in the forecast daily. The MJO has enter Phase 1 which tends to allow raising air to continue which is conducive to thunderstorm development and a Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave is overhead further aiding in those storms to develop. We might need to keep an eye down in the Bay of Campeche as the Southern end of a tropical wave is firing off strong thunderstorms over the Yucatan.

Models have been hinting at something trying to form in the BOC the past few days.

[DoctorMu]

Not seeing any significant changes ahead through at least mid September. The afternoon CPC Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks keep rain in the forecast daily. The MJO has enter Phase 1 which tends to allow raising air to continue which is conducive to thunderstorm development and a Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave is overhead further aiding in those storms to develop. We might need to keep an eye down in the Bay of Campeche as the Southern end of a tropical wave is firing off strong thunderstorms over the Yucatan.

Gordon now projected to reach hurricane strength (CAT 1) at landfall:


Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, along
with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that
Gordon has strengthened a little more, with some these data
supporting an intensity of about 50 kt. However, since the earlier
5-n mi-diameter eye has eroded and inner-core convection has become
somewhat ragged, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. The latest model guidance
is still in excellent agreement on Gordon maintaining a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion for the next 48-72 hours right
up until landfall as a strong ridge to the north of the cyclone is
forecast to remain locked in place over the southeastern U.S. and
mid-Atlantic states. Although the guidance has shifted slightly back
to the left, no appreciable changes were made to the previous
forecast track since the models have been 'windshield-wipering' back
and forth over the past 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to or a little north of the latest consensus models.

Overall, Gordon's presentation in both radar and satellite imagery
has steadily improved since the previous advisory. Although the
inner-core structure has eroded somewhat, outer banding features
have improved and now extend as far north as central and northern
Florida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models continue to
indicate that westerly to northwesterly wind shear of 10-15 kt is
expected to affect Gordon for the next 36 hours, a flow pattern that
would generally hinder development. However, the global models'
upper-level wind fields show Gordon remaining near or underneath a
synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone, a more favorable pattern
that supports at least steady strengthening. Since Gordon will be
moving over very warm sea-surface temperatures of about 30 C, the
cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, just
before landfall. For that reason, a Hurricane Warning has been
issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little above the previous advisory, and is close to a
blend of the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in
the warning areas Tuesday afternoon or evening.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

3. Rainfall will continue across portions of South Florida and the
Florida Keys through early Tuesday, where totals could reach as high
as 8 inches.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 26.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 27.3N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 28.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 30.6N 89.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 32.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z 34.1N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 35.5N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 38.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[DoctorMu]

Not seeing any significant changes ahead through at least mid September. The afternoon CPC Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks keep rain in the forecast daily. The MJO has enter Phase 1 which tends to allow raising air to continue which is conducive to thunderstorm development and a Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave is overhead further aiding in those storms to develop. We might need to keep an eye down in the Bay of Campeche as the Southern end of a tropical wave is firing off strong thunderstorms over the Yucatan.

Models have been hinting at something trying to form in the BOC the past few days.

BoC in the middle of the month and into Mexico. We've heard that tune before.

[unome]

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
513 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon              

...Texas...

...Austin County...
Bellville                    1.73 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.94N/96.27W        
Bellville                    1.44 in   1045 AM 09/03   30.02N/96.20W        
7 NE Eagle Lake              1.18 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.66N/96.24W              

...Brazoria County...
9 SW Jones Creek             5.79 in   0429 PM 09/03   28.86N/95.57W        
Veterans Drive               3.04 in   0208 PM 09/03   29.56N/95.29W        
Cr 128                       2.12 in   0304 PM 09/03   29.48N/95.29W        
Country Club Drive           2.08 in   0430 PM 09/03   29.55N/95.25W        
Brazoria County Airport      1.99 in   0653 AM 09/03   29.11N/95.46W        
3 E Fresno                   1.98 in   0750 AM 09/03   29.55N/95.40W        
3 SW Alvin                   1.83 in   0453 PM 09/03   29.39N/95.28W        
Longherridge                 1.80 in   0435 PM 09/03   29.55N/95.26W        
Fm 1128                      1.76 in   0430 PM 09/03   29.54N/95.33W        
Old Brazos R                 1.73 in   0400 PM 09/03   28.95N/95.34W        
Dixie Farm Road              1.44 in   0436 PM 09/03   29.53N/95.25W        
6 SSE Danbury                1.27 in   0428 PM 09/03   29.15N/95.30W        
4 NW West Columbia           1.21 in   0444 PM 09/03   29.18N/95.71W        
Cloverfield Road             1.20 in   0446 PM 09/03   29.51N/95.24W        
West Columbia                1.16 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.14N/95.65W        
2 ENE Fresno                 1.01 in   0457 PM 09/03   29.55N/95.42W              

...Brazos County...
Coulter Fld Ap               0.56 in   0655 AM 09/03   30.72N/96.33W            

...Burleson County...
Caldwell                     0.05 in   0458 PM 09/03   30.53N/96.71W        

...Chambers County...
8 SSW Stowell                5.86 in   0412 PM 09/03   29.67N/94.44W        
Spindletop Bayou @ State Hig 4.62 in   0414 PM 09/03   29.75N/94.38W        
3 SSW Mont Belvieu           3.27 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.80N/94.91W        
1 WSW Old River-winfree      1.86 in   0458 PM 09/03   29.87N/94.85W        
1 NNW Mont Belvieu           1.18 in   0800 AM 09/03   29.87N/94.89W               

...Colorado County...
7 E Ellinger                 1.68 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.83N/96.58W        
7 W Eagle Lake               1.36 in   0449 PM 09/03   29.57N/96.45W        
5 W Eagle Lake               1.03 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.58N/96.42W              

...Fort Bend County...
4 ENE Fulshear               2.02 in   0504 PM 09/03   29.71N/95.82W        
3 SSE Katy                   1.55 in   0458 PM 09/03   29.76N/95.80W        
5 SSE Katy                   1.50 in   0457 PM 09/03   29.73N/95.79W        
Buffalo Bayou Near Katy      1.26 in   0414 PM 09/03   29.74N/95.81W        
3 SE Katy                    1.01 in   0446 PM 09/03   29.76N/95.78W        
3 NW Richmond                1.00 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.62N/95.81W             

...Galveston County...
Giww @ State Highway 124 Bri 11.73 in  0449 PM 09/03   29.60N/94.39W        
Jamaica Beach                9.80 in   0419 PM 09/03   29.18N/94.97W        
2 W League City              6.81 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.49N/95.15W        
8 NE Galveston               5.82 in   0700 AM 09/03   29.30N/94.78W        
8 NE Galveston               5.69 in   0900 AM 09/03   29.30N/94.78W        
Crystal Beach 3.7 ENE        4.85 in   0700 AM 09/03   29.48N/94.58W        
Galveston Causeway           4.71 in   0349 PM 09/03   29.47N/94.97W        
Galveston 6.4 NE             4.49 in   0700 AM 09/03   29.28N/94.80W        
18 E San Leon                4.48 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.45N/94.64W        
Port Bolivar                 3.96 in   0447 PM 09/03   29.32N/94.77W        
League City 3.5 W            3.55 in   0800 AM 09/03   29.48N/95.16W        
Kemah                        3.32 in   0219 PM 09/03   29.55N/95.02W        
1 NNW Hitchcock              3.31 in   0800 AM 09/03   29.34N/95.03W        
Bacliff                      3.10 in   0700 AM 09/03   29.50N/94.99W        
Santa Fe                     3.06 in   0800 AM 09/03   29.37N/95.10W        
1 NE League City             3.04 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.50N/95.10W        
Bayou Vista                  3.00 in   0800 AM 09/03   29.33N/94.94W        
3 WSW League City            2.80 in   0455 PM 09/03   29.47N/95.16W        
2 W League City              2.71 in   0451 PM 09/03   29.48N/95.15W        
Friendswood                  2.64 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.51N/95.20W        
La Marque 1.8 E              2.63 in   0745 AM 09/03   29.36N/94.96W        
Scholes Intl At Galveston    2.53 in   0652 AM 09/03   29.27N/94.86W        
3 E Texas City               2.46 in   0700 AM 09/03   29.41N/94.89W        
1 NNE League City            2.41 in   0444 PM 09/03   29.50N/95.10W        
2 SW Kemah                   2.03 in   0459 PM 09/03   29.51N/95.05W        
Highland Bayou               2.00 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.33N/94.94W        
Dickinson                    1.95 in   0715 AM 09/03   29.46N/95.06W        
1 ESE Nassau Bay             1.93 in   0800 AM 09/03   29.54N/95.07W        
1 E Nassau Bay               1.90 in   0445 PM 09/03   29.55N/95.06W        
1 SE Friendswood             1.87 in   0700 AM 09/03   29.50N/95.19W        
La Marque Levee Pump Station 1.85 in   0430 PM 09/03   29.35N/94.96W        
2 WSW Santa Fe               1.83 in   0500 PM 09/03   29.36N/95.13W        
1 W League City              1.68 in   0700 AM 09/03   29.48N/95.14W        
1 W Kemah                    1.55 in   0457 PM 09/03   29.53N/95.05W        
League City 2.1 NNE          1.52 in   0700 AM 09/03   29.51N/95.09W        
2 ENE Hillcrest              1.45 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.41N/95.18W        
1 WSW Clear Lake Shores      1.39 in   0459 PM 09/03   29.54N/95.05W        
Marys Creek At Melodywood    1.33 in   0320 PM 09/03   29.54N/95.20W        
League City                  1.13 in   0600 AM 09/03   29.49N/95.12W            

...Grimes County...
8 SE Navasota                0.74 in   0449 PM 09/03   30.29N/96.00W                

...Harris County...
1 SE La Porte                4.32 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.65N/95.03W        
4 W Spring                   4.32 in   0439 PM 09/03   30.06N/95.46W        
Webster                      3.88 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.53N/95.12W        
6 WSW Spring                 3.76 in   0450 PM 09/03   30.03N/95.48W        
El Lago                      3.76 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.58N/95.04W        
Satsuma                      3.76 in   0447 PM 09/03   29.92N/95.58W        
Holcolmbe                    3.68 in   0415 PM 09/03   29.71N/95.43W        
Jacinto City                 3.48 in   0449 PM 09/03   29.77N/95.19W        
2 NE Friendswood             3.45 in   0830 AM 09/03   29.54N/95.17W        
Cedar Bayou Sh 146           3.38 in   0443 PM 09/03   29.77N/94.92W        
1 ESE Houston                3.04 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.76N/95.36W        
Tomball                      3.00 in   0439 PM 09/03   30.10N/95.61W        
4 WSW The Woodlands          2.83 in   0500 PM 09/03   30.13N/95.55W        
4 SE Houston                 2.80 in   0449 PM 09/03   29.72N/95.34W        
3 W Jersey Village           2.64 in   0433 PM 09/03   29.88N/95.63W        
Langham Ck @ Little York Rd  2.61 in   0431 PM 09/03   29.87N/95.65W        
Spring Creek Near Spring     2.56 in   0445 PM 09/03   30.11N/95.44W        
Bay Area Blvd At Horsepen Cr 2.54 in   0432 PM 09/03   29.58N/95.10W        
6 NNE Jersey Village         2.49 in   0454 PM 09/03   29.98N/95.53W        
3 NNW Nassau Bay             2.44 in   0446 PM 09/03   29.59N/95.11W        
7 WSW Jersey Village         2.28 in   0452 PM 09/03   29.84N/95.68W        
6 W Spring                   2.20 in   0457 PM 09/03   30.05N/95.49W        
2 WNW Spring                 2.16 in   0439 PM 09/03   30.08N/95.42W        
5 NE Jersey Village          2.15 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.95N/95.52W        
Buffalo Bayou @ Milam        2.11 in   0437 PM 09/03   29.76N/95.36W        
Webster                      2.10 in   0445 PM 09/03   29.54N/95.11W        
Us 290 Nw Station Park And R 2.03 in   1214 PM 09/03   29.90N/95.61W        
Pearland                     1.96 in   0324 PM 09/03   29.63N/95.39W        
Humble                       1.96 in   0445 PM 09/03   30.03N/95.26W        
Addicks                      1.92 in   0427 PM 09/03   29.83N/95.69W        
6 WSW Jersey Village         1.86 in   0458 PM 09/03   29.87N/95.67W        
Beamer Ditch Hughes Rd       1.84 in   0433 PM 09/03   29.59N/95.22W        
Spring Creek At Tomball      1.79 in   0235 PM 09/03   30.06N/95.62W        
Cypress Creek @ Inverness Fo 1.77 in   0445 PM 09/03   30.04N/95.41W        
6 WSW Jersey Village         1.76 in   0458 PM 09/03   29.84N/95.66W        
Turkey Ck At Fm 1959         1.76 in   0318 PM 09/03   29.58N/95.19W        
3 NNW Webster                1.73 in   0808 AM 09/03   29.59N/95.14W        
Willow Ck Near Tomball (kuyk 1.72 in   0445 PM 09/03   30.11N/95.55W        
Fm 529 And Us 290 Nr Jersey  1.72 in   1224 PM 09/03   29.88N/95.57W        
1 WNW Spring                 1.72 in   0458 PM 09/03   30.07N/95.41W        
4 WSW Jersey Village         1.71 in   0452 PM 09/03   29.86N/95.63W        
Webster                      1.71 in   0446 PM 09/03   29.54N/95.10W        
1 N La Porte                 1.68 in   0358 PM 09/03   29.68N/95.05W        
3 NW Webster                 1.64 in   0445 PM 09/03   29.57N/95.15W        
Us 59 At Jefferson           1.64 in   0202 PM 09/03   29.75N/95.36W        
Webster                      1.61 in   0700 AM 09/03   29.54N/95.12W        
San Jacinto River Near Sheld 1.60 in   0428 PM 09/03   29.88N/95.09W        
3 WNW Taylor Lake Village    1.58 in   0459 PM 09/03   29.60N/95.11W        
Sims Bayou At M L King Fwy   1.55 in   0431 PM 09/03   29.64N/95.34W        
White Oak Bayou At Lakeview  1.52 in   0442 PM 09/03   29.89N/95.56W        
3 ENE Pearland               1.51 in   0445 PM 09/03   29.58N/95.23W        
Lake Houston                 1.49 in   0430 PM 09/03   29.91N/95.14W        
2 WSW Kingwood               1.48 in   0450 PM 09/03   30.04N/95.22W        
3 NNW Webster                1.47 in   0700 AM 09/03   29.58N/95.14W        
1 NNE Houston                1.47 in   0433 PM 09/03   29.79N/95.38W        
Clear Creek At Nassau Bat    1.47 in   0435 PM 09/03   29.54N/95.08W        
5 NW Sheldon                 1.42 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.93N/95.19W        
2 SE Hunters Creek Village   1.40 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.75N/95.47W        
Little Cedar Bayou At 8th St 1.35 in   0436 PM 09/03   29.65N/95.02W        
5 WNW Jersey Village         1.34 in   0502 PM 09/03   29.91N/95.66W        
1 NE South Houston           1.34 in   0500 PM 09/03   29.68N/95.20W        
2 S Houston                  1.34 in   0455 PM 09/03   29.74N/95.39W        
1 NE Houston                 1.34 in   0430 PM 09/03   29.78N/95.37W        
Nassau Bay                   1.33 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.55N/95.08W        
2 ESE Pasadena               1.33 in   0441 PM 09/03   29.63N/95.11W        
Sims Bayou - Hwy 35 Bridge   1.33 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.67N/95.28W        
5 E Kingwood                 1.32 in   0205 PM 09/03   30.07N/95.10W        
South Houston                1.30 in   0428 PM 09/03   29.66N/95.23W        
Ih 610 @ Ship Channel Bridge 1.28 in   0410 PM 09/03   29.73N/95.27W        
Clear Creek At Bay Area Blvd 1.28 in   0433 PM 09/03   29.50N/95.16W        
Telepsen                     1.28 in   0214 PM 09/03   29.72N/95.33W        
2 NNE Friendswood            1.27 in   0445 PM 09/03   29.55N/95.18W        
6 W Westfield                1.26 in   0438 PM 09/03   30.03N/95.48W        
Cypress Creek Near Westfield 1.26 in   0447 PM 09/03   30.04N/95.43W        
5 W Jersey Village           1.24 in   0459 PM 09/03   29.90N/95.67W        
Clear Creek At Mykawa Street 1.24 in   0312 PM 09/03   29.60N/95.30W        
Galveston Road @ Allendale   1.24 in   0242 PM 09/03   29.68N/95.25W        
Amand Bayou @ Nasa Road 1    1.21 in   0424 PM 09/03   29.57N/95.07W        
Kohrville                    1.20 in   0322 PM 09/03   29.99N/95.57W        
Clear Creek At Pearland      1.20 in   0436 PM 09/03   29.59N/95.38W        
7 W Jersey Village           1.20 in   0306 PM 09/03   29.90N/95.70W        
Kingwood                     1.16 in   0253 PM 09/03   30.03N/95.20W        
Carpenters Bayou @ I-10      1.16 in   0430 PM 09/03   29.77N/95.14W        
1 W Shoreacres               1.12 in   0444 PM 09/03   29.62N/95.02W        
2 NW Pasadena                1.11 in   0408 PM 09/03   29.68N/95.18W        
Taylor Lake Village          1.08 in   0442 PM 09/03   29.57N/95.05W        
7 ESE Waller                 1.08 in   0333 PM 09/03   30.03N/95.80W        
2 WSW La Porte               1.08 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.65N/95.08W        
Little White Oak Bayou @ Tri 1.08 in   0446 PM 09/03   29.80N/95.37W        
4 NE Katy                    1.08 in   0311 PM 09/03   29.85N/95.77W        
Deer Park                    1.08 in   0450 PM 09/03   29.69N/95.12W        
Jersey Village               1.08 in   0446 PM 09/03   29.88N/95.52W        
Sh 288 @ Mcgowen             1.04 in   0244 PM 09/03   29.74N/95.37W        
Little Vince Bayou At Jackso 1.04 in   0448 PM 09/03   29.71N/95.20W          

...Houston County...
9 W Crockett                 1.15 in   0452 PM 09/03   31.31N/95.61W        
9 NE Lovelady                1.10 in   0800 AM 09/03   31.22N/95.32W        

...Jackson County...
Ganado                       1.10 in   0455 PM 09/03   29.04N/96.51W                

...Liberty County...
Trinity River At Liberty     2.74 in   0415 PM 09/03   30.06N/94.82W        
4 NW Dayton                  1.76 in   0422 PM 09/03   30.11N/94.93W        
3 NE Splendora               1.04 in   0435 PM 09/03   30.27N/95.13W               

...Madison County...
8 SW Madisonville            0.67 in   0456 PM 09/03   30.87N/96.01W        

...Matagorda County...
2 W Bay City                 4.12 in   0440 PM 09/03   28.97N/96.01W        
1 WNW Bay City               3.21 in   0930 AM 09/03   28.99N/95.98W        
14 S Sweeny                  3.17 in   0441 PM 09/03   28.84N/95.66W        
9 W Markham                  2.25 in   0440 PM 09/03   28.72N/95.99W        
9 SW Markham                 1.63 in   0830 AM 09/03   28.87N/96.17W               

...Montgomery County...
Caney Creek At Splendora     4.14 in   0430 PM 09/03   30.26N/95.30W        
1 SE Chateau Woods           4.13 in   0448 PM 09/03   30.15N/95.41W        
Patton Village               2.88 in   0300 PM 09/03   30.21N/95.50W        
Hufsmith                     2.77 in   0328 PM 09/03   30.17N/95.54W        
Oak Ridge North              2.43 in   0453 PM 09/03   30.17N/95.44W        
2 NE Spring                  2.39 in   0445 PM 09/03   30.09N/95.36W        
1 WNW The Woodlands          2.33 in   0458 PM 09/03   30.17N/95.51W        
East Fork San Jacinto River  2.19 in   0400 PM 09/03   30.15N/95.12W        
Spring                       2.18 in   0400 PM 09/03   30.13N/95.48W        
Peach Creek At Splendora     1.92 in   0400 PM 09/03   30.23N/95.17W        
4 NW The Woodlands           1.50 in   0455 PM 09/03   30.21N/95.54W        
Lake Creek At Honea-egypt Ro 1.30 in   0234 PM 09/03   30.25N/95.58W        
Panther Branch@gosling Rd    1.20 in   0400 PM 09/03   30.19N/95.48W        
3 E Spring                   1.17 in   0445 PM 09/03   30.07N/95.33W        
4 NW The Woodlands           1.16 in   0439 PM 09/03   30.20N/95.53W        
5 N Cut And Shoot            1.12 in   0500 PM 09/03   30.42N/95.34W        
2 SSW Conroe                 1.07 in   0900 AM 09/03   30.29N/95.48W        
Montgomery                   1.04 in   0800 AM 09/03   30.40N/95.70W        
Fm 2978                      1.04 in   0412 PM 09/03   30.13N/95.60W        
5 NW The Woodlands           1.01 in   0700 AM 09/03   30.21N/95.56W           

...Polk County...
Lake Livingston              1.00 in   0415 PM 09/03   30.63N/95.01W                

...San Jacinto County...
Point Blank 5.8 N            1.75 in   0800 AM 09/03   30.83N/95.21W        
Point Blank 6 N              1.24 in   0148 PM 09/03   30.82N/95.23W               

...Trinity County...
5 NW Trinity                 1.83 in   0700 AM 09/03   31.00N/95.42W               

...Walker County...
1 SSE Huntsville             1.95 in   0700 AM 09/03   30.70N/95.54W        
Huntsville                   1.75 in   0643 AM 09/03   30.71N/95.54W        
Harmon Creek                 1.13 in   0121 PM 09/03   30.77N/95.52W        
Huntsville 10.4 NNE          1.13 in   0930 AM 09/03   30.85N/95.48W               

...Waller County...
3 W Katy                     1.23 in   0455 PM 09/03   29.79N/95.88W        
4 NNW Pattison               1.13 in   0800 AM 09/03   29.87N/96.00W        
Hempstead                    1.12 in   1138 AM 09/03   30.11N/96.08W              

...Washington County...
Brenham                      0.48 in   0655 AM 09/03   30.23N/96.37W            

...Wharton County...
8 N Ganado                   1.92 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.16N/96.51W        
1 NW El Campo                1.31 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.22N/96.29W        
8 WSW Boling-Iago            1.05 in   0440 PM 09/03   29.19N/96.07W               

...Maritime Stations...
Fred Hartman Bridge          2.68 in   0221 PM 09/03   29.71N/95.00W        
Goose Creek At Baker Road    1.44 in   0448 PM 09/03   29.71N/94.99W              

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers 
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

[Andrew]

Pretty much got nothing today. I was worried that was going to happen. I haven't really received much rain over the last couple of weeks. Hoping tomorrow morning I get a little more as orientation of on flow shore would support that idea a little better.

[Cpv17]

Pretty much got nothing today. I was worried that was going to happen. I haven't really received much rain over the last couple of weeks. Hoping tomorrow morning I get a little more as orientation of on flow shore would support that idea a little better.

I’m out in the country between Wharton and El Campo and we got about .10” today. Last week though we got 3.4” here, but it was so dry it didn’t even look look like it rained that much. The ground soaked it up like nothing. Hopefully we can get more this week cuz we still need it.

[Scott747]

Same song and dance with long range modeling - And we know how they can shift away from showing or being a threat to our neck of the woods as perfectly seen with what was future Gordon.

The potential BoC system that the models have recently been hinting at took a bit of a jump n towards the mid Texas coast as an organizing storm on the 0z gfs run.

Looks like we could be back to model watching over the coming days.

[Katdaddy]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
329 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

TXZ214-236>238-300-313-336>338-436>438-041700-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180904T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brazoria Islands-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Coastal Harris-Coastal Matagorda-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Inland Brazoria-
Inland Galveston-Inland Matagorda-Matagorda Islands-
Southern Liberty-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Baytown, Clute, Devers, Dickinson, Freeport, Friendswood,
Galveston, La Marque, Lake Jackson, League City, Mont Belvieu,
Old River-Winfree, Palacios, Pasadena, Pearland, Stowell,
Surfside Beach, Texas City, and Winnie
329 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Texas...including the following
counties...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Matagorda...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands and
Southern Liberty.

* Until noon CDT today

* Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this morning. This activity should shift
westward towards Southeast Texas later this morning. Another
round of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall is possible
through Tuesday afternoon. Already saturated conditions from
yesterday`s rainfall will make the watch area more sensitive
to additional rainfall. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
with isolated areas of 4 to 5 inches are possible over the watch
area through noon Tuesday.


* Primary impacts will likely be street flooding and low water
crossings. Already saturated conditions will make the area
more sensitive to additional rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

[Andrew]

I don't see Gordon becoming a hurricane by landfall. The system really has not looked good since yesterday when it was over Florida. ULL plus fast motion of the storm has kept it disorganized. The upper levels are not stacked and still remain elongated. Locally, expect more of the same with chances for thunderstorms almost everyday. We will have to turn our eyes to the longer term but for now enjoy the increased rain chances.

[jasons2k]

I’m really surprised that I’m the end, it was the far eastern and the northern solution that won out for Gordon. Just a few days ago, we were debating South Texas versus SE Texas. I really thought that ridge would send anything in the Gulf out towards the west. Things can change in a hurry...

[DoctorMu]

I’m really surprised that I’m the end, it was the far eastern and the northern solution that won out for Gordon. Just a few days ago, we were debating South Texas versus SE Texas. I really thought that ridge would send anything in the Gulf out towards the west. Things can change in a hurry...

Not that surprised. Only the GFS really had a Texas solution early on. The ridge has been a little weaker than the past few years. There will be enhanced showers around as Gordon isn't organized enough to have high pressure overhead.

30% chance around here for the rest of the week with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Could be worse. We've had 1 inch total over the last 5-6 days. Sprinklers are on stun, A/C laboring less.

[stormlover]

oh i am really surprised, usually fronts aren't as strong this early shown by models.

[srainhoutx]

Well accord to the ECMWF, the Tropical Atlantic will be as quiet as a Church Mouse...not!

The attachment 09042018 12Z 192 ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_9.png is no longer available

Notice that red shaded area in the SW/Western Gulf?

[Katdaddy]

A nice tropical sunset this evening. Off and on tropical showers and thunderstorms will be possible through next weekend across SE TX and SW LA which will produce locally heavy rains and be a nuisance. However more important is to remain weather aware and the watch the tropics though September. No concern for the Upper TX/SW LA Coast currently and hope our friends and family along the MS, AL, and NW FL coasts have minimal effects with TS Gordon tonight and tomorrow morning. The long range tropical model runs of the GFS, CMC, and, ECMWF continue to show an active pattern ahead across the Atlantic Basin. As stated before, this is the time to be prepared. So ready for our first strong Fall cold front.

[srainhoutx]

A nice tropical sunset this evening. Off and on tropical showers and thunderstorms will be possible through next weekend across SE TX and SW LA which will produce locally heavy rains and be a nuisance. However more important is to remain weather aware and the watch the tropics though September. No concern for the Upper TX/SW LA Coast currently and hope our friends and family along the MS, AL, and NW FL coasts have minimal effects with TS Gordon tonight and tomorrow morning. The long range tropical model runs of the GFS, CMC, and, ECMWF continue to show an active pattern ahead across the Atlantic Basin. As stated before, this is the time to be prepared. So ready for our first strong Fall cold front.

Amen and Amen...

[Scott747]

The gfs didn't do much with the potential BoC system on the runs throughout the day, but the 0z run does have a weak system close to Brownsville next weekend.

It also has 92l making a fairly deep run in the Caribbean before crossing central Cuba and heading N.

[snowman65]

Off-topic but when are we going to start seeing some cool fronts push through here? I saw the first few love bugs yesterday.

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z GFS continues the trend of a potential area of low pressure beginning to organize in the Gulf of Honduras a week from today and eventually brings it NW into the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf later next week. The Experimental Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities from thence/ECMWF Ensembles have increased to 40% to 60% chance of TC Genesis in those areas. It is noteworthy that the track for a Hurricane Florence is now perilously close to the East Coast and 92L is near the Caribbean Islands. As we near the official peak of Hurricane Season, it reminds us that we should continue to monitor the Tropics.