January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Bellville, Hempstead, Montgomery and Conroe may see some ice pellets mixed with rain in the band moving through

[Kingwood36]

Its windy out and it's kinda "cool" but it certainly doesn't feel very "cold" out ..maybe it's just me

[srainhoutx]

Sleeting in Chapel Hill and Hempstead.

[jasons2k]

I had 1.14” overnight. 36, windy and raining outside. About as miserable as the weather can get.

[srainhoutx]

Light rain with an occasional sleet pellet mixed in across NW Harris County at this time.

[Kingwood36]

Anything looking halfway decent for next week or into February?

[redneckweather]

Just a miserable cold rain up here just south of Lake Conroe Dam, which is coming to an end.

[wxman57]

Drove in to work around 6:30 this morning. Heading east on the south loop just past 288 I heard a couple of sleet pellets hit the windshield. Saw a few sleet pellets as I drove south on 45 past Hobby. HRRR has a thin sub-freezing layer overhead around 950mb (1500 ft). Thus, the sleet. Too much above-freezing air between 2000-9000 ft for any snow.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231159
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Cold front has pushed through the area so expect gusty northerly
winds to continue through 00Z this evening. Right now there is a
mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings mainly for the Houston terminals but
those are in the process of becoming more scattered. Ceilings
could still drop the next hour or two as a final rain band moves
through the majority of terminals from KUTS south to KLBX. This
band should clear the area by 15Z with more drying after that.
Dewpoints have already dropped at KCLL and look for this drier air
to move into over the next several hours. This will make it more
difficult for precipitation to reach the ground this morning.
Ceilings should continue to improve 15-18Z with mainly VFR
conditions after that for the afternoon. Winds should decouple
tonight with clear skies.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 404 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...
As of 3 AM, the cold front that pushed through the region tonight
was draped across the nearshore waters. Northerly winds behind the
front have been gusty, with sustained wind speeds between 10 to 20
mph and gusts near 25 mph, with higher gusts concentrated along
the immediate coast. Radar imagery shows stratiform rain
continuing to fall behind the leading line area wide. HRRR and the
TT WRF have performed well this morning with the progression of
the front, and show lingering showers persisting inland through
mid morning around 9 AM before pushing offshore. Have kept the
chance for showers and light snow in the forecast for the far
northern reaches of our forecast area, mainly in Houston, Madison,
Brazos, Burleson and Walker counties, with the best chance of
occurrence right around sunrise. Temperatures and moisture would
have to line up just right in order for this chance of wintry
precipitation. This time frame for such potential will be short
lived, as drier air quickly filters into the area robbing
moisture. No accumulation is expected at this time, and impacts
would be minimal with surface temperatures too warm.

High temperatures will be significantly colder today behind the
front, in the 40s area wide, approximately 20-30 degrees colder
than yesterday. The upper level trough axis swings through the
region this afternoon and high pressure will quickly build in.
Skies will clear from NW to SE throughout the day, with clear
skies overhead and potentially some lingering high clouds along
the coast by late this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures
tonight will dip into the 30s, but are expected to remain above
hard freeze criteria. High pressure will remain in control
Thursday and Friday, and onshore flow will be only temporary on
Thursday. Eventually, partly cloudy skies will return Friday
afternoon.

A weak cold front will slide through the area early Friday and
winds will turn back out of the northeast. Therefore, temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler Friday compared to Thursday, but
still in the 50s. High pressure builds back into the region, as
well as a coastal trough which skirts the upper Texas coast late
Saturday into Sunday. This will bring our next best chance for
precipitation, with global guidance in agreement with better
coverage situated west of I-45 and along the coast. Onshore flow
will return to start the week which will help to increase moisture
values slightly, with precipitable water values rising back up to
around 0.6 to 0.8 inches. Another cold front will push through
the region late Monday into Tuesday morning bringing with it
colder temperatures to start the week.


.MARINE...
Cold front has pushed off the coast this morning. Gale Warning is in
effect until noon for the offshore waters and small craft advisory
for the bays. Winds and seas should decrease after that but will
have advisory level conditions going through the rest of the
afternoon. We will also keep the rip current statement going since
there will still be a southerly swell to mix with the northerly wind
waves that develop behind the front. The only other hazard to watch
is for low water in Galveston Bay this afternoon. Tides could push
about 1 foot below normal this afternoon. All marine hazards should
come to an end tonight into Thursday.

Thursday into Friday high pressure moves east and another front
slides off the coast allowing for NE winds. Winds quickly turn SE
Friday night into Saturday. A coastal trough may form off the lower
Texas coast Saturday night into Sunday which may increase easterly
winds over the upper Texas coast. Winds then become southerly ahead
of the next strong cold front expected to push off the coast next
Tuesday morning.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 46 33 58 34 55 / 20 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 46 34 58 37 57 / 60 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 48 42 53 47 56 / 90 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel
TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport
TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...Overpeck

[CrashTestDummy]

It's a 'brisk' 38 here in northern Brazoria county. we've had almost 34" of rain so far. The yard is back to being underwater again!!

[ccbluewater]

Pretty good sleet shower at the moment in Cypress. Wind was ferocious last night around midnight. I tried looking up wind reports and saw gusts around 40mph last night. If I had to guess it was blowing that or harder here for a bit of time. Ripped off the lid to my hose box!

[srainhoutx]

Sleet has increased as well in NW Harris County. Katy reports sleet as well.

[Kingwood36]

Nada here in kingwood

[djmike]

Have a feeling high temps will be a bust. Woke up at 5am to temp of 45. 3 hrs later we are now 39 here in Beaumont and continues to drop. NWS has a high of 47 for us today. I dont see 47 happening. Same for Houston. You guys are sitting around 37-39 right now. Seeing numerous reports of sleet happening where it was never forecasted and much closer to home. IMO, this front seems a tad colder than expected. May see several more reports of sleet across southeast texas and possible flake or two. Bundle up!

[Belmer]

Have a feeling high temps will be a bust. Woke up at 5am to temp of 45. 3 hrs later we are now 39 here in Beaumont and continues to drop. NWS has a high of 47 for us today. I dont see 47 happening. Same for Houston. You guys are sitting around 37-39 right now. Seeing numerous reports of sleet happening where it was never forecasted and much closer to home. IMO, this front seems a tad colder than expected. May see several more reports of sleet across southeast texas and possible flake or two. Bundle up!

High temperatures should be able to climb into the mid to upper 40's later this afternoon as the skies clear and we get some sunshine. The wind will make it feel much colder though with wind chill in the upper 30's to low 40s.
As the post-frontal precip band moves eastward, it will help keep temperatures rather chilly... models have done well with this showing decreasing temperatures from up through 10am as the precipitation band moves overhead. Some places may not climb above 40 until after 11:00am as conditions begin to rapidly dry with a breezy NW wind.

[javakah]

Just had a very brief bit of sleet in Fulshear.

[redneckweather]

I'm sitting at 35 degrees and don't see the temp moving much at all with low overcast and continuous cold air advection. If the sun doesn't come out before 5, I don't myself getting out of the 30's today. My forecasted low of 32 overnight is in trouble as well. These last 2 fronts packed more of a punch than forecasted. The next 2 fronts already look cold so maybe they will over achieve as well. I think they will.

[mcheer23]

Brief sleet shower in Sugar Land.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A few sleet pellets and snow flurries possible this morning.

Back edge of precipitation shield is moving into the US 59 corridor area and the rain has started to mix with sleet and snow. Multiple reports of sleet and snow flurries in NW Harris County near US 290/Barker Cypress and in SW Montgomery County. Cooling in the mid levels is allowing more of the rainfall to make it to the ground as snow flurries. Precipitation will end in the next few hours and surface temperatures remain well above freezing, so any falling sleet/snow will melt on contact with the ground. There will be no impacts on area roads.

Cold air will continue to pour into the region today and this will limit warming to the low to mid 40’s. A light freeze will be possible Thursday morning mainly north of I-10.

Next system for the weekend is looking a bit stronger this morning and will favor the ECWMF over the GFS. Will see a rapid increase in clouds on Saturday and likely an area of showers/light rain Saturday afternoon and evening that will drop from C TX toward the coastal areas of SE TX. A front will rapidly clear the area on Sunday, but weak onshore flow returns late Sunday ahead of a stronger arctic front which will pass through the area early next week. Freezing temperatures are looking possible behind that front by the middle part of next week.

[srainhoutx]

Moderate sleet again in NW Harris County.