APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month

[Cromagnum]

Too damn hot for April

[Katdaddy]

Another very warm mostly sunny SE TX day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Saturday continues to look interesting with a possible severe weather threat.

[wxdude]

The 90 degree temp yesterday felt pretty good with a 50 degree dewpoint. When it's 90 and dewpoints hit the 70's I'll change my mind!

[Palm Republic]

Glad to have found the board again. I mainly lurked over the last handful of years but always appreciated all the insight.

Does anyone know what Waco looks like for Saturday? We moved recently from The Woodlands to Port Aransas and my daughter was invited to play a softball tournament with her old team in Waco. The weather forecast is calling for severe thunderstorms for Saturday. Which means there’s no reason to make the trip. Any insights would be appreciated as we decide what to do.

Thanks.

[Cromagnum]

It's looking more and more like my cycling event Saturday is going to be a bust. Hope the models are dead wrong about timing or the rain event happening at all.

[jasons2k]

The weather this morning was great for my run. Feels good to break a good sweat. Much better than 37. I’m keeping a close watch on Saturday as well. Two different crawfish boils to attend. I’m hoping the rain holds off until later in the day or evening so we can enjoy most of the day.

Cromagnum - hope you get your cycling event in!!

[nlosrgr8]

Anyone care to take a stab at Easter weekend weather?

[srainhoutx]

Glad to have found the board again. I mainly lurked over the last handful of years but always appreciated all the insight.

Does anyone know what Waco looks like for Saturday? We moved recently from The Woodlands to Port Aransas and my daughter was invited to play a softball tournament with her old team in Waco. The weather forecast is calling for severe thunderstorms for Saturday. Which means there’s no reason to make the trip. Any insights would be appreciated as we decide what to do.

Thanks.

We are glad you took the time to find us and to join in on our Weather Discussions, Palm Republic! Waco likely will see some light to moderate showers Friday night with a fairly quick chance of a thunderstorms early Saturday. As of this afternoon, most of the severe weather looks to be East into Louisiana and Mississippi. Not to say an isolated severe storm could pop up, but the best chances this go around look off to the East. If you do travel to Waco, I'd take a jacket. It might get a little chilly Saturday night into Sunday morning. There may be some wrap around wintry mischief to the NW of Dallas behind this storm system.

[DoctorMu]

First 90°F today in BCS. At least the dew point is 58°F. 35% humidity. A nice summer day in West Texas!

[jasons2k]

Had a high of 93F here. It's a warm one for sure!

Just read the latest AFD; rain looks like a problem for most outdoor activities on Saturday.

[Cpv17]

Had a high of 93F here. It's a warm one for sure!

Just read the latest AFD; rain looks like a problem for most outdoor activities on Saturday.

North of 10 probably. South of 10 maybe.

[Palm Republic]

We are glad you took the time to find us and to join in on our Weather Discussions, Palm Republic! Waco likely will see some light to moderate showers Friday night with a fairly quick chance of a thunderstorms early Saturday. As of this afternoon, most of the severe weather looks to be East into Louisiana and Mississippi. Not to say an isolated severe storm could pop up, but the best chances this go around look off to the East. If you do travel to Waco, I'd take a jacket. It might get a little chilly Saturday night into Sunday morning. There may be some wrap around wintry mischief to the NW of Dallas behind this storm system.

Thanks, srain!

Truly helps with my decision making. Gives me some confidence knowing there’s a good chance we get to play.

Plus, I wouldn’t have thought about the cold air. Much appreciated.

[Katdaddy]

A cool front will move across SE TX today with a few showers possible around Galveston Bay. The severe weather remains for SE TX Saturday.

[Andrew]

It looks like the strongest dynamics will remain to our northeast over Shreveport and into Alexandria, but we will have to monitor where cyclogenesis occurs. That will be key for where the largest threat for tornadoes and strong winds occur. Where the LLJ punches through the state will be key, but looking at hodographs overall, there are some strong sweeping graphs with helicity from 0-1km in the 200-300 range. I think the biggest damper on this threat will be junk convection ahead of the main line which could limit the amount of available energy. Any cap will be quickly eroded across the region and showers will start to pop early. With that said, LCLs will be close to the ground so it won't take much to get surface based storms.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings are moving across area TAF sites early this morning. Anticipate
majority of sites to be VFR by later this morning or this afternoon
with winds shifting to the SW and W and decreasing to around 10 knots.
Could see possible SHRA development later this morning and on through
this afternoon as well as possible fog development tonight. For now,
have not included either of these in the TAFs. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is set to move through the area today, but will be a
dry passage for all but the southeastern corner of our area. The
brief dip of drier air will let tonight get chilly, but this will
be brief as winds turn back around to onshore as a weak coastal
trough sets up.

That trough will attach to a new developing low
over Texas and become a warm front lifting north Friday night,
and will be a focus for storms on Saturday. After that new low`s
cold front moves through, we`ll be looking at fair weather until
another front moves into the picture in the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Satellite and obs show mostly clear skies across the area at 0330
this morning, with tendrils of low stratus and fog developing
nearer the coast. As a harbinger of things to come, things are
about to get "boring" around College Station as a series of roll
clouds with an undular bore push out ahead of today`s expected
front.

Speaking of that front...it`s about to move into the DFW
Metroplex, and is making its way coastward. The front should reach
College Station around noon, Houston mid-afternoon, and...that`s
probably about it. Look for the front to stall out in the vicinity
of US-59. From a temperature standpoint, it`s unlikely to make
much difference as far as highs go today - maybe a few degrees in
the far north. As far as rain goes...again, not much difference.
For most, it will be a dry front. There is a narrow corridor of
1.0 inch precipitable water just ahead of the front, which may be
enough to get a few showers from Galveston County or so
northeastward through Chambers and Liberty. At most, those locales
would see a few hundredths of rain from any light showers.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Temperatures to fall into the 50s north and west of the Houston
metro thanks to a bit of dry air coming in behind the front. With
winds staying light/variable to onshore near the coast, look for
lows to stay in the 60s.

Light and variable winds tonight will become easterly to
southeasterly Friday as a very subtle, very broad coastal trough
sets up. Meanwhile, an upper trough digs into West Texas, and
we`ll see the inklings of a new surface low develop near the Big
Bend. This will tighten up the pressure gradient and strengthen
onshore flow, increasing moisture and lift, and bringing back the
first small chances of showers Friday night.

The real action, though, is set for Saturday. The low continues to
deepen as the upper trough swings through West Texas. The precise
track of this low will become intensely important for our weather
on Saturday. There seems to be a growing consensus that the low
will take a more northerly track and lift the warm front north
through the area. While this would still leave us open for some
severe storms, and perhaps a localized concern for flooding from
the wettest cells, the worst weather would occur northeast of our
area. Given the model consensus, this is the tack the official
forecast takes. This is...close, though. We`ll be keeping a close
eye on the nuances of this forecast until Saturday morning, most
likely.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

In the long term, we should see things clear out in the wake of
the weekend low. This will definitely cool things down, especially
in the back half of the weekend, with lows dipping into the 40s
and 50s, and highs around 70. With zonal flow/light ridging in the
midlevels and a low level ridge sliding east of the area, we`re
set up for a warming trend and moistening trend into the mid-
week. The next front looks to roll through in the middle to later
part of next week, and bring us the next shot at showers and some
thunderstorms.

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Cirrus patch or two drifting over the area with impressive
southerly flow feeding into the storm complex over the Plains.
PW is low with 0.5-0.6" PW streaming quickly north and GOES
indicating that dry plume extends well south into the southwest
Gulf. AMDAR sounding showing the strong capping and limited
moisture only reaching up to around 2300ft. Strong winds aloft
have been mixing down this afternoon with gusts of 25-30kts. These
should relax slightly this evening but the moderate southerly flow
will continue at area TAF sites. May flirt with LLWS at UTS/CLL
after midnight with the entrance region of the LLJ traversing
those sites and the strong inversion present at the upper height
bound of the LLWS criteria. Moisture limited in the morning and
though some guidance is very bullish for OVC MVFR decks around
1500ft am skeptical with mixing overnight. Some period of MVFR ceilings
may crop up for a few hours 13-16z near the coast but not very
confident. Winds becoming SW ahead of the dryline tomorrow late
morning-afternoon and still gusty but not as strong as late this
afternoon. Dryline should push past CLL and turn winds westerly
with some gusts and then eventually dryline/prefrontal troughing
relaxes winds significantly.
45

MARINE...

Elevated winds and seas this morning will decrease as the day
progresses. Advisory flags will eventually be lowering to caution
flags for the bays and nearshore waters, but seas might remain high
enough across the offshore waters for flags to continue. Lower winds
and seas tonight and Friday will come up again to caution and/or
advisory levels on Friday night and Saturday as the next storm
system approaches and eventually pushes through the region. This
system`s cold front will push off the coast Saturday night and
strong offshore winds will develop in its wake. By Monday, onshore
winds will return to the area, and they will be gradually increasing
through Tuesday night. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 53 83 65 79 / 0 0 10 60 90
Houston (IAH) 83 62 83 68 81 / 20 10 10 50 80
Galveston (GLS) 75 67 76 69 77 / 20 10 20 40 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Cromagnum]

Tried to ride the bike in the wind yesterday and the 25-30 mph gusts made it nearly impossible. Bike race Saturday is going to suck because the winds will be similar, plus it will be wet

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Severe thunderstorms possible Saturday.

A severe weather outbreak appears to be increasingly likely Saturday over portions of Louisiana and eastern TX. All severe modes including tornadoes will be possible.

A surface “cold” front will move into the area this afternoon and stall…likely near US 59…as it is getting to that time of year when fronts have a hard time pushing off the coast. Not expecting much if any cooling with this boundary except maybe far north and maybe just an isolated shower with a fairly dry column and cap in place. However this boundary becomes very important for Saturday.

A potent upper level storm system will approach TX late Friday into Saturday while the old surface front becomes a coastal trough and potentially even a surface low and a developing warm front NE of the surface low. Surface low is expected to develop over SE TX (maybe around Wharton) and track ENE/NE with a warm front extending NE of the surface low into WC LA. Low level winds will become backed near the surface warm front on Saturday morning and forecasted soundings show strong veering of wind with heights…wind shear. Lift will become maximized by early to mid morning as the potent upper level system ejects into SW TX. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area and move ENE/NE. Position of the surface warm front will be key to severe weather parameters as its location will serve as the best severe threat. Instability and shear looks favorable for tornadoes…some strong…near and north of the warm front. Additionally, models are showing supercells developing south of the warm front in the warm sector during the day on Saturday during peak heating and these would certainly need to be monitored for a severe and tornado threat.

Will favor areas NE of a line from Columbus to Sugar Land to High Island for a severe threat and favorable the highest tornado threat NE of a line from Huntsville to Lake Livingston. Should the surface warm front north progress as far northward as expected a much more significant severe threat would be in play for a much larger portion of SE TX.

Note: SPC Day 3 outlook already has much of SE TX in the slight risk category

[jasons2k]

It’s raining pretty good here now. Supposed to be limited to Gaveston-Chambers areas, so....bust. I was questioning that on the drive to work, clouds showed some pretty decent moisture already below the cap.

[jasons2k]

Drove home with the windows rolled-down. It felt great!!

[Katdaddy]

Mostly cloudy across SE TX with a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across SE TX tomorrow afternoon especially NE of the Houston area. Parameters are coming together for a dangerous severe weather event from ETX across N LA and S AR and into W Central MS.