MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

[jasons2k]

Radar is coming alive now...

[jerryh421]

Activity has definitely increased on radar. Just got a nice heavy burst of rain here at work.

[unome]

yup, finished outdoor tasks & errands just in the nick of time before the sky opened up here and the air just feels tropical, so unlike the lines of storms that blow through from the north

a good reminder that it is Hurricane Preparedness Week https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness

[srainhoutx]

Just a reminder that the parallel FV3 GFS will continue running until June 5th. The upgraded new GFS is scheduled to go operational mid June.

[tireman4]

Jeff's Tweet

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

TXZ227-237-071800-
Inland Brazoria TX-Fort Bend TX-
1218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1218 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bonney, or 10 miles southwest of Manvel, moving northwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Missouri City, southwestern Manvel, Fresno, Arcola, Iowa
Colony, Bonney, Thompsons, Sienna Plantation, Fort Bend Houston,
Brazos Bend State Park, Juliff and Rosharon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service

[srainhoutx]

Likely the first of many over the next several days...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

SAN JACINTO TX-MONTGOMERY TX-LIBERTY TX-HARRIS TX-
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT.

* AT 1224 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY OVER THE LAST
HOUR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
MORE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THIS SAME AREA. STREET
FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS OR FLOOD PRONE STREETS IS THE MAIN
THREAT.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUMBLE, CLEVELAND, KINGWOOD, SPLENDORA, PATTON VILLAGE, ROMAN
FOREST, WOODBRANCH, CUT AND SHOOT, PLUM GROVE, NORTH CLEVELAND,
ATASCOCITA, LAKE HOUSTON, PORTER HEIGHTS, EASTERN BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT, EAST LITTLE YORK / HOMESTEAD, NEW CANEY
AND PORTER.

[BlueJay]

We are currently getting pounded with heavy rain.
Some lightening and thunder also.

[tireman4]

Here...we....go....

[BlueJay]

The rain has subsided for now.

[srainhoutx]

One of the reason we are concerned about the heavy rainfall and flood potential is when the ensembles paint such high totals nearing and exceeding 10 inches, it always raises an eyebrow. This is the latest 12Z precipitation output of the GEFS into early next week.

[unome]

Public Severe Weather Outlook for TX panhandle & western OK
https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1125812355366105088
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo ... 71735.html

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2019

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains
this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Texas Panhandle
Western Oklahoma

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight,
particularly across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. A
couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds
will all be possible.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Guyer.. 05/07/2019

D5-uw69XkAAmi5R.jpg

[bikerack]

4" in the last 90 mins at my home in the front of Kingwood with another projected 20 mins of rain before we get a break. Storm moving VERY slowly.

[sau27]

One thing I noticed with the 12z GFS is that it has lowered the total accumulated precip between now and about mid-day Sunday and spread the bullls-eyes a bit further apart as compared to previous runs. However it is now showing waves of rain continuing through at least the middle of next week. The ensemble members on the other hand are still pretty consistently targeting somewhere between Houston, College Station, and the coast.

Still a long ways to go though. Similarly to tropical season we will drive ourselves crazy hanging on just one model run for these mesoscale driven systems.

[redneckweather]

Just got absolutely pounded up here in central Montgomery County.

[srainhoutx]

Heavy rainfall in Brazoria and Ft Bend Counties showing very slow movement. Also a Flood Warning issued for the cluster near Kingwood Area.

[jasons2k]

We are getting us a ‘good old fashioned’ storm right now with more back building. We are gonna get a lot of rain out of all this!

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
114 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 245 PM CDT.

* At 113 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
nearly stationary thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the
warned area. Three to almost five inches of rain have already
fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Humble, Kingwood, Lake Houston, Atascocita and northeastern Bush
Intercontinental Airport.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

[tireman4]

862
FXUS64 KHGX 071811
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
111 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.UPDATE...
Quick update to raise pops for the two main clusters of storms.
Track of where these are going differ given the wind profile.
Northern cluster will probably move north while the southern
cluster could be stationary or very slow moving to the north and
west or even southeast. Very efficient rain makers today...note...have
already gotten 4" at Highway 59 and the San Jacinto river.

This is unfortunately going to do a good job of getting the soils
wet.

45

&&
.AVIATION...
Messy TAFS for the first few hours with the storms over the
LBX/SGR/HOU/IAH/CXO terminals expanding into the UTS/CLL areas
while likely tapering off in the SGR/HOU/IAH/CXO areas as the
airmass works itself over. Ceilings a mix of MVFR/VFR becoming
MVFR. Storms forecast to develop Wednesday morning well northwest
of the region and push toward the area but models have been fairly
consistent with capping over the southern terminals through
18z...am concerned that with the expected heating tomorrow and the
moisture available may be able to overcome that capping. Will show
VCSH developing around 15-16z time frame for now.
45

[tireman4]

Flood Advisory