July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Rip76]

Lots of tropical clouds overhead now.

[tireman4]

NWS HGX Update 1:30 pm

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021802
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
102 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR to VFR conditions currently observed across all TAF sites.
Southerly wind flow at 5-10 kts prevails. Scattered SHRA/TSRA
currently moving over the Gulf waters and southern half of the CWA
will continue to increase in coverage and intensity as the
afternoon progresses. Strong TS will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds of 20 kts or more, lightning, and hail. Heavy
rainfall could also result in MVFR vis/cigs at times. TSRA
activity is expected to dissipate after 01Z. Tranquil weather
conditions with light and VRB winds can be expected tonight with
SHRA moving over the local waters into KGLS/KLBX early in the
morning Wednesday. SHRA/TSRA expected to develop over the southern
and central portions of the CWA Wednesday morning/afternoon.
Winds will increase again Wednesday morning, particularly along
the waters and coastal sites. 24

[unome]

Total Eclipse today for South America

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 48&y=10848

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 48&y=10848

[jasons2k]

Trace...

[djmike]

Looks like the tropical blob is going more into LA than Texas. Will we miss the bulk to the rain today? News had been saying Wed would be the better heavier chance. Just wondering if we dodged a bullet.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC has issued a Slight Risk and Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall today along our Coastal tier of Counties extending into Beaumont and SW Louisiana.

[tireman4]

NWS Houston Update

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031000
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
500 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
Radar has been quiet overnight/so far early this morning, but per
short-range models, this is expected to change later this morning
as another disturbance moves in from the Gulf. This feature comb-
ined with a very moist profile and sufficient instability will be
enough to produce scattered/numerous activity today. The best QPF
and POPs should start at the coast (see WPCs Day 1 Excessive Rain
Outlook) late this morning/early afternoon...then moving into the
rest of the CWA late this afternoon/early evening. However, we`re
still not seeing much by way of a surface boundary for the storms
to focus on at present so development should be fairly widespread
as the day progresses. Heavy rainfall/flooding issues will likely
be very localized.

Activity will be on the decrease later this evening with the loss
of daytime heating. Will maintain low POPs for Thur...higher over
the NW counties given the slow trek of the upper level trof/shear
axis from Central TX to the NE. Best rain chances should be main-
ly during the daytime. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Strong/deep ridging building over the region from the east will be
the primary weather feature for the extended forecast. Very low to
nil POPs will prevail along with warming temps thru the end of the
week and into the rest of the long holiday weekend. Will keep with
the return of very low (mainly diurnal seabreeze) rain chances for
the start of next week. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots today increasing tonight to
around 15 knots and may have a period of few hours of 15 to 20
knots over the western waters...may need a brief SCEC. Showers and
thunderstorms should redevelop today over the Gulf waters on the
southern edge of rich moisture. The moisture diminishes
tonight/Thursday and rain chances drop off abruptly as the upper
ridging over the Gulf expands westward into the area. Much lighter
southerly winds over the weekend and early next week. As the
upper ridge overspreads the region it will leave a weakness over
the northeastern Gulf the middle of next week but weak to moderate
cyclonic upper flow should minimize any tropical development
there. Tropical wave moving off of Africa looks to be surrounded
by abundant Saharan dust and for that matter much of the MDR looks
to be covered in dust.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Localized VLIFR ceilings at CXO/6R3 this morning as well as some
fog. This should be short lived and expect rapid improvement
possibly even before sunrise or just shortly after. Tropical
moisture (PW 2.0-2.2") draped over the area and with the upper shear
axis to the west will be watching for the speed max to move through
the area late this morning and afternoon giving additional lift for
the development of thunderstorms with more than enough moisture in
the profile. Will continue with the TEMPO TSRA conditions mainly in
the 17-21z window for the IAH/HOU/SGR terminals. Storms should
shift north throughout the afternoon but will need to keep an eye
out for redevelopment over the southwestern areas that may impact
SGR/HOU/LBX late afternoon. This evening skies clearing and this may
lead to some patchy fog or MVFR ceilings. Far fewer storms expected
Thursday morning.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 75 92 75 94 / 60 30 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 76 92 76 94 / 70 20 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 81 89 81 91 / 70 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[djmike]

Stupid question. What does CWA mean in the NWS discussions?

[srainhoutx]

Stupid question. What does CWA mean in the NWS discussions?

County Warned Area

[djmike]

Ah. Thank you

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031521
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1021 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.UPDATE...
12z sounding data supports low convective temperatures between
84-86 degrees and this seems to be verifying as shra/tsra
expanding coverage. Should be an active sea breeze day with
convection spreading inland with heating. Made some minor tweaks
to wind/PoPs/hourly temps but the integrity of the previous
forecast is on track. Also issued a SCEC for the western waters
for this afternoon and will likely need an SCEC for the Gulf
waters tonight. 43

[Texaspirate11]

Nice tropical downpour by the bay complete with lightning and thunder!

[djmike]

Beaumont hammered again. 1” already in 15 min and counting.

[mcheer23]

Everything seems to be falling apart right as it enters fort bend county. No storms for me lol

[DoctorMu]

Everything seems to be falling apart right as it enters fort bend county. No storms for me lol

Lots of thunder, but somehow the sea breeze has jumped right over us.

[Cpv17]

Today was somewhat of a bust if you ask me.

[mckinne63]

Nada here, yesterday or today. Yesterday looked promising, but Stafford seemed to be smack dab in the middle of the rain that did pop up.

[mckinne63]

Getting some rain in Stafford now! Yay! It's coming down pretty good. Maybe I won't have to add water to the pool tomorrow