July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[cperk]

Happy 4th of July to all the WX infinity forum members.

[Katdaddy]

Happy Independence Day!!! A hot and partly to mostly sunny afternoon on the way for SE TX after some clearing this morning. Inland areas N of Houston may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm however these will dissipate by the evening with loss of daytime heating. Nice but warm humid weather for the fireworks tonight. Have a fun and safe 4th of July!

[srainhoutx]

Happy Independence Day everyone. The weather looks typically hot and uneventful into early next week, but changes are brewing by mid next week. In fact to 12Z GFS and ECMWF are suggesting the potential of late next week tropical mischief brewing in the Central/Eastern Gulf. We may see a deep Eastern US trough with a frontal boundary stalling along the Northern Gulf Coast. The GFS moves a weak feature toward Texas while the ECMWF is attempting to develop a stronger system moving inland along the NE Gulf Coast.

[Cpv17]

Looks like a fairly hot and dry weather pattern will be setting up over next couple weeks. Ugly!!

[DoctorMu]

Back door front and tropical features persist on GFS, Ensemble in a week...but the wave/disturbance projected to hang off the FL Gulf Coast. Rain doubtful west of I -45 for now.

[Katdaddy]

Tropic Watch has started across the Atlantic Basin. This is the time to make sure family, friends, and co-workers have a plan ready. Memories of Rita 2005 alway come flooding back......I was not ready and learned a life lesson which I carry forward thus my post this evening. Safety always first.

[cperk]

Tropic Watch has started across the Atlantic Basin. This is the time to make sure family, friends, and co-workers have a plan ready. Memories of Rita 2005 alway come flooding back......I was not ready and learned a life lesson which I carry forward thus my post this evening. Safety always first.

Katdaddy I'm not sure if anyone was ready for Rita.

[srainhoutx]

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the potential for future NE Gulf of Mexico mischief...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Kingwood36]

quite the westward jump on the 12z Euro through hour 120.

[srainhoutx]

quite the westward jump on the 12z Euro through hour 120.

The European model is significantly stronger than every other model as well. I'd like to see another day of guidance before jumping on the organization bandwagon. That said we need to monitor trends carefully this coming week.

[cperk]

Yeah that westward jump on the Euro got my attention,but like srain said a day more of model runs will be good.

[Texaspirate11]

quite the westward jump on the 12z Euro through hour 120.

The European model is significantly stronger than every other model as well. I'd like to see another day of guidance before jumping on the organization bandwagon. That said we need to monitor trends carefully this coming week.

GOT my attention.....its gonna be a long week of watching and waiting

[CrashTestDummy]

The _rain_ is coming down pretty hard here in northern Brazoria County right now. 0.08" in about 10 minutes. NOAA radar just now showing the pop-up.

[Rip76]

A few pop ups around.

[Rip76]

Linder’s thoughts.

Gulf of Mexico:

A complex evolution of a weakening frontal boundary and mid level disturbance could result in tropical cyclone formation over the NE Gulf of Mexico this week.

A mid level (850mb) disturbance that formed over KS early in the weekend has moved around the edge of the southern plains high pressure ridge and is currently located over the northern MS/AL area and is moving toward the SSE. This feature is forecast to enter the extreme NE/E Gulf of Mexico late Monday into Tuesday where conditions both aloft and at the ocean surface appear favorable for the 850mb surface circulation to attempt to work its way toward the surface. While this is not the most common formation evolution of a tropical cyclone, it has happened before in the Gulf of Mexico. Such systems tend to take some amount of time to consolidate the surface energy and form a surface circulation.

The following questions remain this afternoon:
· Where does a surface circulation eventually form
· How strong does any circulation become
· Will the system remain close to the NE Gulf coast or move more westward

There are simply not a lot of clear answers to the begging questions above, mainly due to the fact that how this system forms is complex and that the major global models are at complete odds with both formation and track of any potential system. The GFS, UKMET, and CMC all keep the energy elongated and weak and close to the FL coast and eventually pull any weak system NE into FL and GA. The ECWMF brings a much stronger system deeper into the Gulf of Mexico on a more westward track before turning toward the SC LA coast and is by far the strongest of any guidance. Both solutions are certainly viable given the various factors at play which would be intensity of the system, a trough crossing the Great Lakes and NE US, and a ridge of high pressure over the southern plains which builds eastward with time across the southern US. One thing that does appear to be somewhat consistent with all the major models is that upper level conditions will be favorable for developed with an established 200mb high pressure system (anticyclone) anchored over the SE US into the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of this week. Any developing system will sit at the southern flank of this upper level high with weak ENE/E wind shear which tends to be a favorable direction for any shearing effects in the Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF model is showing this I think better than the GFS, but I am reminded of the ECWMF on its performance in early June when it insisted on development of 91L in the southern Gulf of Mexico that did not occur.

At the moment there does not appear to be any significant threat to TX, but as always with any system expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico…it is something to watch and residents should check forecasts and the tropical weather outlooks at least daily.

The National Hurricane Center currently indicates a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days…more likely in the 3-5 day time range.

[Katdaddy]

As always, an excellent update from Jeff.

[Scott747]

Well it's definitely time to take this a little more seriously. Oz GFS is much further west.

Strength isn't an issue yet but the potential track has for sure shifted more towards the Western Gulf.

[stormlover]

If it takes that route I think it could get to a strong cat 1

[Cpv17]

0z GFS ensembles are into Texas. Significant shift west.

[Texaspirate11]

tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a
couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and
a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the
low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For
more information about the rainfall threat, please see products
issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather
Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch