July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[djmike]

Where does it go in at?

[stormlover]

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[Ptarmigan]

Multiple low pressure centers make it more complicated to forecast.

[Texashawk]

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Isn’t that the GFS model?

[Scott747]

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

That's the gfs

[stormlover]

Sorry I made a boo boo there my bad guys

[Rip76]

Curious, is this moving North?

[Scott747]

Curious, is this moving North?

No. Still a steady snail's pace to the w.

[Rip76]

Curious, is this moving North?

No. Still a steady snail's pace to the w.

Baby bit of sarcasm.

[txsnowmaker]

Sorry I made a boo boo there my bad guys

You know you can edit your original posts too to correct yourself.

[stormlover]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=060

[Texashawk]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=060

Actually seems reasonable. Initialized at the right spot and the right pressure, and hits the Golden Triangle area. I could buy that!

[DoctorMu]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=060

Actually seems reasonable. Initialized at the right spot and the right pressure, and hits the Golden Triangle area. I could buy that!

Return to Lake Charles. Interesting. The longer Barry is out to see the more likely this outlier becomes reality.

A poorly defined storm would produce more widely dispersed bands an spread the rainfall.

[Katdaddy]

TS Barry is up to 50MPH and still not very organized this morning. The NHC still has Barry making landfall across S Central LA. Some wrap around thunderstorms will be possible Saturday as Barry moves inland across LA.

From the Houston-Galveston NWS morning AFD:

Tropical Storm Barry is moving very slowly west northwest this morning. The storm has started to turn and should turn to the NW later this morning. The storm is expected to turn north and head toward LA in a weakness between two upper level ridges. The strongest winds remain east of the center and most of the convection is currently south of the center as some dry air gets entrained into the system from the NW.

Impacts for SE Texas are highly dependent upon the track but the strongest winds are expected to remain east of the region with perhaps some stronger winds over the offshore coastal waters. As for rainfall, if banding can develop, some brief heavy rain could be possible. It is best to continue to monitor forecasts going forward.

[djmike]

Todays an important day. Does Barry feel the trough and get pulled Northward or miss the trough and the ridge builds back in? We shall see...

[dbrooks77346]

so where is the center now?

[srainhoutx]

so where is the center now?

28.2N & 90.3W or about 120 SSE of Morgan City Louisiana.

[Texashawk]

Looks like it’s still basically moving west, the WNW motion is more due to center repositioning than any true change of motion. If it doesn’t start going north by 92W, things will start getting very interesting...

[srainhoutx]

Evident on rapid scan visible imagery that the center has moved underneath the deep convection that had been S of the circulation since sunrise.

[davidiowx]

Looks like it’s still basically moving west, the WNW motion is more due to center repositioning than any true change of motion. If it doesn’t start going north by 92W, things will start getting very interesting...

It's really hard to tell.... Looks like it may be moving WNW on satellite but who knows lol. Pretty much every single model has it going to Louisiana now. So if it somehow keeps going West into Texas, then this will be unbelievable.