September 2019 - Warm End of September

[stormlover]

I dont see this being a multi dsy event when the radar is showing clearing...maybe im missing something

it's going to pick back up later today.

[jasons2k]

The latest WPC forecast has this taking a hard left turn in about 24 hours. The final plot for Friday AM is very close to Groesbeck/Mexia areas...

[sau27]

The 3km NAM is actually doing very well right now. I posted a side by side of 11 am radar and the 12z 3km NAM simulated radar for 11 am here:

https://twitter.com/stephenuzick/status ... 76545?s=20

[davidiowx]

Just looking at the models and radar/satellite, it looks like my area in Fort Bend County and counties westward are done with this event.

[Kludge]

The latest wobble seems to be toward the west into Walker county.

[tireman4]

All - just to clarify - this is a multi-day event. As the remnants drift off to the north, the orientation of the bands and inflow will change. If it drifts to the NNW as forecast, the Houston area could once again be in the inflow with heavy feeder bands.

It’s not over ‘till it’s over.

Yep..Yogi quote. ..and Dr. Frank proverb..

[txbear]

The 3km NAM is actually doing very well right now. I posted a side by side of 11 am radar and the 12z 3km NAM simulated radar for 11 am here:

https://twitter.com/stephenuzick/status ... 76545?s=20

Hasn't the NAM been the most accurate mesoscale model for Imelda? From what I have seen from the forum in past (as a lurker), the running joke is "yeah, but it's the NAM". Seems like the theme for the rest of the day is where do the next round of feeder bands set up as the center moves off on to the NNW?

[TexasBreeze]

I don't really see it going too much further west before it heads further north then out. May wobble around and do small loops though.

[Kludge]

The "bands" feeding in from the northwest appear to be developing some spotty showers. Maybe she won't stay completely asymmetric after all.

[sau27]

Came home to walk the dog at lunch and noticed some sun poking through In the Bellaire area. We’ll see what if anything this does for destabilization.

[DoctorMu]

The latest WPC forecast has this taking a hard left turn in about 24 hours. The final plot for Friday AM is very close to Groesbeck/Mexia areas...

We'll have a horseshoe or rainfall around us.

We've had continued light drizzle. Nothing else so far, besides a northerly breeze and cooler temps. The center appears to have moved farther N than predicted. The center location is just SSE of Lake Livingston.

[DoctorMu]

The 3km NAM is actually doing very well right now. I posted a side by side of 11 am radar and the 12z 3km NAM simulated radar for 11 am here:

https://twitter.com/stephenuzick/status ... 76545?s=20

Hasn't the NAM been the most accurate mesoscale model for Imelda? From what I have seen from the forum in past (as a lurker), the running joke is "yeah, but it's the NAM". Seems like the theme for the rest of the day is where do the next round of feeder bands set up as the center moves off on to the NNW?

ICON had this easterly track nailed first. May or may not have overdone the amount of rainfall, but try telling that to folks near Beaumont.

[Cpv17]

Just looking at the models and radar/satellite, it looks like my area in Fort Bend County and counties westward are done with this event.

Yes. It was a bust for a good chunk of Fort Bend County and points sw of there. It looks over with.

[djmike]

Wow a solid 8 hrs of moderate to heavy rain for Beaumont Jefferson County and still raining! I dont remember the last time it rained solid for that long. Seriously it was probably Harvey. Luckily this one is coming at a slower pace. Just looked at my rain gauge. Dumped out 5” yesterday and its up to 5.5” and still counting. So for the system so far as of right now, 10.5” in 2 days and not even gotten our main event yet which according to the models should happen tonight and tomorrow. Stay safe everyone.

[Cromagnum]

About 4 inches yesterday and 1.5-2 inches overnight in Rosharon. I rather doubt we get anymore for this event.

[Cpv17]

About 4 inches yesterday and 1.5-2 inches overnight in Rosharon. I rather doubt we get anymore for this event.

That’s a nice rain for you.

[Cromagnum]

About 4 inches yesterday and 1.5-2 inches overnight in Rosharon. I rather doubt we get anymore for this event.

That’s a nice rain for you.

I'll take it in a heartbeat. My lawnmower is in the shop right now so it works out. It will be a jungle by the time it dries up enough to cut it.

[Cpv17]

We have sunshine here at my job in Rosenberg.

[Belmer]

That rainband that set up along the coast really acted as a barrier for Houston. Fortunate for us, not fortunate for those along the coast and in Galveston where water was creeping into businesses. While I do think we'll have more rain later today into tonight, it should be manageable. But don't let your guard down with a tropical system still spinning over the state with deep tropical moisture still overhead. I've picked up a little over 7 inches here in Pasadena. Bayou near my house is about a foot from coming out of its banks.

[Kingwood36]

So where is this second round of storms coming from tonignt? Looking at radar its moving away from houston and in to lousiana