July Weather Discussion

[wxdata]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/01/10 1711Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1645Z JBN
TRMM: 1457Z

HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM OUTLOOK BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO ROTATED WNW INTO TX/SRN LA. THE COOLING/EXPANDING
TREND IN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THESE BANDS REMAIN ACTIVE AND SHOULD
PERSISTS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND
JUST INLAND AS THIS IS WHERE THE BANDS SEEM TO BE AT THEIR PEAK. AS THE
BANDS MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION, CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
SOME SUGGESTING THAT RAIN RATES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AND RAIN FALL
AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF MOD/HVY RAIN LOOK
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

[wxdata]

Expect to see several more 'Areal Flood Advisories' as radar continues to show training of the rain bands this afternoon.

[wxdata]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

TXC201-011930-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0040.100701T1729Z-100701T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
1229 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 1229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY.

[srainhoutx]

Getting thunder and moderate rain now in NW Harris County.

[svrwx0503]

Really starting to get concerned about tonight and and tomorrow as models have been indicating a surface boundary and upper level disturbance to work with which could really allow for some deep convection to develop across the region. Much of the area along and south of I-10 will have likely received 1-2 inches area wide with many locations especially where training has been occurring over our coastal counties and portions of Harris/Ft. Bend counties south of I-10 seeing 3-5 inches, by this evening. With additional heavy storms expected through tomorrow, some locations could start to see some significant flooding problems.

[svrwx0503]

Transtar reporting high water on I-45 gulf freeway northbound at I-610 south loop. Be careful out there!

[svrwx0503]

Showers and storms re-developing across Brazoria and southern Galveston counties where there had been a break for about an hour with additional activity poised to train across southern Harris county over Galveston Bay at this time. We will probably be looking at a flash flood waring for Harris county over the next hour or so if convection continues to train in from the southeast. Interesting to note, this activity stretches well offshore.

[Paul]

thats some serious training going on...especially in my neck of the woods in Pearland.....might leave early from DT to make sure i get home...

[ticka1]

Email from Jeff Lindner:

Heavy rainfall in a strong feeder band extends from High Island to Downtown Houston producing 1-2 inches per hour.



Another band extends from Freeport to Wharton with flash flood warning in effect for western Brazoria County.



Carefully watching these training bands as rainfall totals are starting to increase fairly quickly with up the 5” now over western and central Brazoria County since 800am this morning. Numerous bands will continue to spread inland from the coast into this evening with the flood threat increasing as grounds saturate. Latest HPC outlook indicates a high risk of flash flooding over Brazoria, Wharton, Matagorda, and Fort Bend counties

[Paul]

PW values are way high ...2.5 range....its going to be a long night....I am surprised that this forum is not hopping....I guess no one is looking offshore...

[ticka1]

Hubby called me from Baytown said its been pouring for the last hour or so - I'm here at downtown - hopefully it will slack off and drain off so I have no problems getting home. I leave at 5 p.m. (crossing fingers).....

[rnmm]

PW values are way high ...2.5 range....its going to be a long night....I am surprised that this forum is not hopping....I guess no one is looking offshore...

It is very rainy here in my area with occasional thunder...I did look offshore...doesn't look good

[Katdaddy]

Its sunny and 75F in Snowbird, UT. Thanks everyone for holding down the fort while I am out of town.

[Mr. T]

I'm just shocked that it took this long for HGX to issue a flood watch, the last coastal office from Texas to LA to do so... These guys are just odd sometimes.

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC039-012145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0011.100701T1851Z-100701T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
151 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 148 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLIDAY
LAKES. LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED FLOODING
NEAR WEST COLUMBIA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROSHARON...DAMON...CHOCOLATE BAYOU...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...WEST
COLUMBIA...SWEENY...SURFSIDE BEACH...RICHWOOD...QUINTANA...
PEARLAND...OYSTER CREEK...MANVEL...LIVERPOOL...LAKE JACKSON...JONES
CREEK...IOWA COLONY...HILLCREST...FREEPORT...DANBURY...CLUTE...
BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...BRAZORIA...BONNEY...BAILEY`S PRAIRIE...ANGLETON
AND ALVIN.

[Paul]

and I just added water to my pool last night.....boy am I dumb....the warden just called. Pearland is getting pounded...

[Andrew]

I just checked the sat and there is a good amount of moisture out there:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC039-157-012030-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0047.100701T2005Z-100701T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 301 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOLIDAY LAKES...
OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST COLUMBIA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK.

[srainhoutx]

Busy day! Missed posting this as well...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
239 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

TXZ210>214-020600-
/O.EXB.KHGX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-100702T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-HARRIS-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANAHUAC...BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...
COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...
MONT BELVIEU...PASADENA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...TOMBALL...
WEIMAR...WINNIE
239 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS EXPANDED
THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...HARRIS AND WALLER.

* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS RECEIVED 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY AND AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAIN IN AND NEAR THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN. BRAZORIA COUNTY RECEIVED 6 TO 7
INCHES OF RAIN TODAY AND FLOODING WAS REPORTED NEAR WEST
COLUMBIA AND SWEENY.

* ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CREATE A RISE ON AREA WATERSHEDS
SUCH AS THE SAN BERNARD RIVER...THE LAVACA NAVIDAD AND THE
TRES PALACIOS.

[rnmm]

Hello everyone I hope everyone has gotten some much deserved rest after Alex. Does anyone know how much rain we are going to get? It has been raining here off and on all day